Member Info for OTCDS2023

Just means off-book

FYI News from this morning..

TUI's 3Q solid results are seen as a small positive with limited financial and bookings impact stemming from the wildfires in Greece and year-on-year guidance progression in key metrics in 4Q, Citi analysts Leo Carrington and Daniela Riu say in a note. The travel operator had already reported a bookings recovery for the quarter last week, with pricing 26% higher than in 2019 and in line with May's level, which reassuringly suggests no elevated discounts or negative mix shifts, the analysts say. Divisional EBIT expectations are consistent with FY 2023 EBIT of around EUR1 billion and potentially suggest low single-digit consensus upgrades are possible, they say. Shares are up 3.6% at 602.50 pence. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

Just an FYI for those who haven't seen the below - came out about 30 mins ago.

TUI is scheduled to report results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023 on Wednesday. Here's what to know:

REVENUE FORECAST: One analyst polled by FactSet had a revenue estimate for the German travel operator of 5.01 billion euros ($5.51 billion) compared with EUR4.30 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2022. In June, Deutsche Bank said in a note that it expected TUI's strong operating recovery to continue into the second half of 2023.

ADJUSTED EBIT FORECAST: UBS analyst Cristian Nedelcu said in a note that for adjusted profit before interest and taxes--one of the company's preferred metrics which strips out exceptional and other one-off items--Bloomberg consensus is EUR960 million versus UBS consensus of EUR980 million. The company reported an adjusted EBIT loss of EUR27 million the year before.

EBIT FORECAST: The company is expected to swing to a positive EBIT of EUR150 million, Nedelcu said, compared with an loss of EUR42.5 million in the year-prior period.

WHAT TO WATCH:

-DEMAND: Visibility for travel demand post summer remains low and UBS expects airline bookings in late September to provide a clearer picture of the health of travel demand. "We note at the date of third quarter historically TUI sold around 87% to 88% of the summer schedule pre-Covid-19 (83% to 86% of the program sold last year)," Nedelcu said. In May the company said it had recorded strong bookings for summer and that travel demand was high across all markets.

-GREECE FIRES: Investors are expected to focus on the financial hit stemming from the wildfires in Greece. UBS models a headwind of around EUR50 million in the fourth quarter "reflecting a combination of repatriation costs, cancelled/modified bookings and potentially weakening demand for Rhodes in August which may have a negative impact on pricing in the late season."

Write to Anthony O. Goriainoff at anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com

Assume this is contributing to the downward trend and why Marshall Wace increased their short position on the 26th.

Airlines brace for hit from Pratt & Whitney's new engine problem

CHICAGO/PARIS, July 26 (Reuters) - Airline executives are fuming about the prospect of grounding planes and trimming flight capacity amid a busy summer travel season after fresh problems arose with some of RTX's Pratt & Whitney engines.

Pratt & Whitney's latest snag, revealed on Tuesday, will impact at least 1,200 of its Geared Turbofan (GTF) engines that power Airbus' popular A320neo jets and will need up to 60 days to inspect and fix after microscopic contaminants were found in a metal used in part of the engine core.

While few airlines commented publicly about the engine contamination issue, multiple senior airline executives privately said they were shocked, and one who asked not to be identified called it a "nasty surprise."

Hungary's Wizz Air said on Wednesday it expected first-half capacity to shrink by a "mid-single digit" percentage as 12 of its fleet's engines would be affected. But the low-cost carrier added that strong consumer travel demand could result in higher fares, leaving profitability intact.

N.B EDITED THE POST FULL LINK BELOW -

hxxps://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAWAIIAN-HOLDINGS-INC-3064324/news/Airlines-brace-for-hit-from-Pratt-Whitney-s-new-engine-problem-44430031/

@joaung this will only happen at c300 C. not 40-45 C. The fires in Rhodes were arson.

Slightly random question but do any of you guys utilise level 2 data to support your trading? Be good to get any thoughts/opinions?

Very poor service, disappointing.

Good summary Stupmy, US job claims came under today but will tick up - Disappointing day on results for Easyjet, Let's hope we get a bounce 2m. Be good to see UK retail sales down 2m to support inflation print.

They need to post good profits and share go-forward plan/profit, Tui and jet2 were both poor on that front (although Jet2 got the shock on the bigman stepping down), Lets hope Easyjet management communicate clearly. On your point big drops I wouldn't be surprised, I think US markets are overvalued and wouldn't be surprised to see big drops in the next few months which will impact the UK. Sorry to hear about your personal circumstances hope they work out for you and good luck with your investments.

Good to see inflation numbers beat consensus, especially the reduction in core. Great uplift across the sector today however wouldn’t be surprised if everything drops 2m post easyJet results - call me cynical but seems to be standard practice these days.

Just on this point (and for balance....) BOA raised Wizz on the same day.....

Bank of America raises Wizz Air price target to 4,300 (4,200) pence - 'buy'

Great c12% run over the past week or so and good monthly numbers from Ryanair/wizz this morning, however bit of negative commentary on wizz numbers which I think I think are worthy of challenge. Let's hope Jet2 provide a good update on Thursday to continue the positive momentum. Keep the faith guys!

Re; gap to fill @517 I get that. appreciate gaps don't always get filled but current climate means we could bail at any point. Good luck with your investments.

@Stupmy What is your rationale/thinking of a further drop to 517?

@ Stupmy (or stumpy) good you have got in elsewhere and hope working out well, good 5% gain in TUI over the last couple of days however it's more than likely it will drop back so other opportunities will arise. Good luck.

I wasn't expecting a 3% drop today..was hoping to see the next leg up post RBC upgrade yesterday but hawkish central bank(s) rhetoric never helps I suppose. Good luck all.

Bounced off 5.20ish....lets hope that is the low..did you buy back in Stupmy :)

FYI on top of the broker sentiment there was also the below (print 21/06)... 3 very positive broker/news stories, I'm not invested in Carnival but positive news stories support the cause - UK/EU futures are looking positive (but can change) so lets hope that translates to next week - good luck all and have a great weekend.

Cruise operator Carnival could consolidate some of its 9 brands to drive efficiencies and expand margins, say Conor Cunningham and Daragh Regan, analysts at Melius Research, in a note. Since 2019, Carnival has removed 22 ships from its fleet and taken delivery of 11 new ships, the analysts note. "There is likely further potential as the company realigns to what fits the vision going forward as they look to maximize margins," they say. Carnival shares have nearly doubled this year as investors piled into travel stocks, though accumulations of debt during the pandemic still weigh on shares across the industry. (Will.Feuer@wsj.com; @WillFOIA)

Cruise operator Carnival could consolidate some of its 9 brands to drive efficiencies and expand margins, say Conor Cunningham and Daragh Regan, analysts at Melius Research, in a note. Since 2019, Carnival has removed 22 ships from its fleet and taken delivery of 11 new ships, the analysts note. "There is likely further potential as the company realigns to what fits the vision going forward as they look to maximize margins," they say. Carnival shares have nearly doubled this year as investors piled into travel stocks, though accumulations of debt during the pandemic still weigh on shares across the industry. (Will.Feuer@wsj.com; @WillFOIA)

@stupmy - marketscreener.com and tradingview.com are always good with news (prob 1-2 hours late) but provide good updates re; broker updates/downgrades/news et al. They're no Bloomberg terminal but good all the same.

5th of June as below - tend to agree with Mike technical analysis (MA et al) go out the window when macro environment goes down the pan - algorithm criteria move on news, smash it down, scare PI and buyback - next week will see a jump as its all a game to make money.

Just an FYI for this who haven't seen.....

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Deutsche Bank Research upgraded Tui from "hold" to "buy" and adjusted its price target of 9.80 euros to reflect the recent capital increase. The tourism group has seen a strong operating recovery in recent months following the covid crisis, analyst Andre Juillard wrote in a research note presented Monday. This recovery is expected to continue in the particularly profitable second half of the fiscal year (April to September). Therefore, the expert raised his forecasts for the operating business./edh/gl