Member Info for OTCDS2023

You said in your previous note to Mike you don't really understand the macro and then you say Nikkei down and FTSE futures down, is this helping you understand how a destabilised Middle East impacts the markets?

@Masaimara isn't scaremongering he is talking the truth, what is going on in Gaza is a disgrace and it will obviously have an impact on the macro environment, in regards to Iran, their response was telegraphed and managed by Isreal (as they knew what was coming), its all theatre and the markets knew it, if something real was going to happen we wouldn't know about it and we would all be fu@&ed and by that stage who cares. Good luck to all holders.

@MikeS02, really glad share price on the up for you, you are a good guy on the group and I know its been a hard slog, onwards and upwards and good luck to all holders.

Why have you posted about Germany? they're struggling around trade with china and their dependance on Russian oil, what has that got to do with our decline in the uk?

@Savage I do agree with your point re; UK being the sickman of Europe as a result of all the challenges of Brexit (and god awful government)...absolute nightmare.......... however I do think your note is slightly disingenuous on mortgage arrears? The value is increasing as expected (as debt builds), however new arrears (individual cases) have decreased QonQ, I work for a prominent bank and our forecasts are looking positive when we factor in interest rate cuts (BOE will reduce shortly (especially) as a result of wage growth report this morning) and see no big issues with delinquency going forward. Good luck all holders

(Alliance News) - Tui's share price could soar from current levels, according to a scenario for the German holiday operator painted by Morgan Stanley.

On Wednesday, the investment bank upgraded Tui to 'overweight' from 'equal weight.'

It raised its price target on the stock to EUR10 per share from EUR9 and to 850 pence per share from 780p.

Morgan Stanley has a bull case share price of EUR23, more than triple the current share price, assuming a return to pre-Covid margins and pre-Covid valuation multiple.

Shares in London shot up 6.3% to 555.00p each, while in Frankfurt they leapt 6.3% to EUR6.50 per share.

Morgan Stanley highlighted the potential tour operating margin upside, a more sustainable looking balance sheet, improving free cash flow potential, a very low valuation, and an attractive risk-reward.

"We see much more upside than downside potential," the bank said.

The broker pointed out Tui has been one of the worst performing travel stocks in Europe reflecting three separate equity raises.

Morgan Stanley said travel demand still appears solid and thinks Tui's guidance for equal to or greater than 25% earnings before interest and tax growth in 2024 looks conservative.

After a better-than-expected first quarter, it implies just 8% for the rest of the year, Morgan Stanley pointed out.

This would also leave Tui's tour operating Ebit margin at just 2%, well below peers, such as Jet2 at 8% and easyJet Holidays at 11%.

Morgan Stanley noted Tui's balance sheet is getting "back to normal".

The company has now halved its undrawn EUR1 billion state aid facility from Germany, and is hoping to remove the remaining EUR0.5 billion as soon as possible.

Free cashflow remains weak, but has scope to improve, Morgan Stanley said.

"While a dividend resumption seems unlikely for the next one to two years, we think 2026 is a distinct possibility," the bank commented.

Morgan Stanley pointed out while it is easy to "lump" Tui into the tour

operating and airline basket, around 75% of its profit comes from higher-margin and higher-growth hotel and cruise subsidiaries, where valuations are enjoying a premium.

By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter

That was the next support level after 5.24 (which was broken yesterday), obviously an overweight upgrade by MS the next morning is going to influence the share price positively (and I am glad it did) - only trying to provide support to the group.

FYI Positive upgrade -

NEW YORK (dpa-AFX) - The US investment bank Morgan Stanley has upgraded Tui from "Equal-weight" to "Overweight" and raised its target price from 9 to 10 euros. Analyst Jamie Rollo sees significantly more potential than risks in Europe's currently worst-performing tourism share, according to a study published on Wednesday. The increase in earnings targeted by the Group for 2024 appears conservative and the balance sheet problems have largely been solved, he said./ag/gl

Premature next stop 480, lets see.

Support @ 5.25ish and tested earlier today, hopefully bounce abit from here, however dependant on macro so we will see, good luck all.

I was just saying there seems to to be resistance @ 38-39ish, I hold metro so I hope it does rise, I was just commenting on what I see but if it does drop I will buy in again.

Wouldn't be suprised to see it fallback now.

Tui is like any travel share, you don't hold you trade it.

46 now (L2 data) ;) agree we need news - we have bounced from Friday which is a positive, when I said resistance @ 39 I was talking about recent trends through Jan, however I did think we had solid support a@ 34-5 but that didn't workout, maybe I am being too optimistic.

It looks like we hit the bottom on Friday, will hopefully break out now but a lot of residence @ 39ish - good luck to all.

@keeppluggingaway - The short positions only increased by 0.06% with millennium (it has been 0.46% from April last year) so hope the drop is not based on that.....the true short portion has been 1.5-1.75%%ish for ages so not much has changed really, maybe some underlying issue or just smashing out the retail guys.

@David Kov - Why do you contribute to this group? From viewing your posts you are obviously invested in Ryanair but take a lot of enjoyment when the share goes down? what is your purpose?

Yep bring on the 25th.

DD77, There are no 737 9's in the EU (main carriers outlined below), I think flydubai also have 4 737 9's however they are a different spec so are not grounded - Tui & Ryanair have large Boeing fleet, however prior models to the 9 so out of scope.

'The vast majority of Boeing 737 Max 9s used in the US are operated by United Airlines and Alaska, while Turkish Airlines, Panama's Copa Airlines and Aeromexico have also grounded jets of the same model for inspections'.

@Roguemle1 - Yeah good to close @ 0.77% to be fair and I'm not having a go - I know Boeing is getting smashed, my point was more around united flying high with 9's (irrespective of wider fleet cover) and we have struggled ( with no 9's in fleet), understand the listing 'challenge' however feel this is a non event really.

I do struggle to understand this share price at times when we are down with no 737 9's and United are up c1.5% having grounded 79 aircraft... what am I missing!?