focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I will try for the last time......glad I've had a slow day - You have your baseline (H2 23) and we see an uplift in H2 24 of c11%? What has driven the uplift? Revenue in H1 24 of c11%? The inflation rate over the period of H1 24 (that we need to factor in) was 4% so we arrive at our 'true' revenue growth of 7%.
Its not incorrect savage...but good that you now appreciate how the 11% H1 number is arrived at i.e. its not from Mar 23 to Mar 24 re; inflation - have a look at an earlier post when I mentioned 'baseline' to arrive at the 4% inflation number.
You still don't understand the reporting, the comparator (11%) is 'not end March 2023 to end of march 2024' - The YoY H2 period reported by OTB is looking at H2 '23 (Oct 22 - Mar 23)) vs. H2 '24 (Oct 23 vs. Mar 24) - this is how YoY quarterly/H1/Full year reporting works. This is why you use the c4% inflation number.
Savage, I believe the OTB numbers reported were H1 '24 over the 6 month period of Oct 23 to Mar 24 when inflation was averaging c4% over the period, not defending the numbers, however it's important to ensure we are sharing accurate numbers. Good luck to all TUI holders for 2m.
Not challenging your point on the drop and understand why it happened but a lot of times you make an unsubstantiated claim and don’t back it up and when challenged you skulk off but well done for posting on the group when it drops! You should have said well done earlier when 3% up for shareholders that are having a hard time.
What's your rationale for the drop Savage? Are you thinking US jobs/wage/unemployment data at 13:30 is gonna come in hot and smash the markets or specific TUI price action/technicals (seems to be pretty strong support @ 560)? Genuinely be good to hear your thoughts?
SK congratulations on your offer being accepted, however 10% under asking price isn't unusual under 'normal' times I would push further if I was you? Property market is and will continue to struggle as a result of current interest rates and exacerbated by the planned rate cut for June being pushed back to Aug as a result of inflation challenges in the U.S.
You said in your previous note to Mike you don't really understand the macro and then you say Nikkei down and FTSE futures down, is this helping you understand how a destabilised Middle East impacts the markets?
@Masaimara isn't scaremongering he is talking the truth, what is going on in Gaza is a disgrace and it will obviously have an impact on the macro environment, in regards to Iran, their response was telegraphed and managed by Isreal (as they knew what was coming), its all theatre and the markets knew it, if something real was going to happen we wouldn't know about it and we would all be fu@&ed and by that stage who cares. Good luck to all holders.
@Savage I do agree with your point re; UK being the sickman of Europe as a result of all the challenges of Brexit (and god awful government)...absolute nightmare.......... however I do think your note is slightly disingenuous on mortgage arrears? The value is increasing as expected (as debt builds), however new arrears (individual cases) have decreased QonQ, I work for a prominent bank and our forecasts are looking positive when we factor in interest rate cuts (BOE will reduce shortly (especially) as a result of wage growth report this morning) and see no big issues with delinquency going forward. Good luck all holders
(Alliance News) - Tui's share price could soar from current levels, according to a scenario for the German holiday operator painted by Morgan Stanley.
On Wednesday, the investment bank upgraded Tui to 'overweight' from 'equal weight.'
It raised its price target on the stock to EUR10 per share from EUR9 and to 850 pence per share from 780p.
Morgan Stanley has a bull case share price of EUR23, more than triple the current share price, assuming a return to pre-Covid margins and pre-Covid valuation multiple.
Shares in London shot up 6.3% to 555.00p each, while in Frankfurt they leapt 6.3% to EUR6.50 per share.
Morgan Stanley highlighted the potential tour operating margin upside, a more sustainable looking balance sheet, improving free cash flow potential, a very low valuation, and an attractive risk-reward.
"We see much more upside than downside potential," the bank said.
The broker pointed out Tui has been one of the worst performing travel stocks in Europe reflecting three separate equity raises.
Morgan Stanley said travel demand still appears solid and thinks Tui's guidance for equal to or greater than 25% earnings before interest and tax growth in 2024 looks conservative.
After a better-than-expected first quarter, it implies just 8% for the rest of the year, Morgan Stanley pointed out.
This would also leave Tui's tour operating Ebit margin at just 2%, well below peers, such as Jet2 at 8% and easyJet Holidays at 11%.
Morgan Stanley noted Tui's balance sheet is getting "back to normal".
The company has now halved its undrawn EUR1 billion state aid facility from Germany, and is hoping to remove the remaining EUR0.5 billion as soon as possible.
Free cashflow remains weak, but has scope to improve, Morgan Stanley said.
"While a dividend resumption seems unlikely for the next one to two years, we think 2026 is a distinct possibility," the bank commented.
Morgan Stanley pointed out while it is easy to "lump" Tui into the tour
operating and airline basket, around 75% of its profit comes from higher-margin and higher-growth hotel and cruise subsidiaries, where valuations are enjoying a premium.
By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter