Member Info for originalharrystamper

If you click on the trades tab and go to yesterdays trades you’ll see there was one trade at 16:35 for 7999 shares (£95) @ 1.17p. That will explain the false closing price being 1.17p as all other trades were circa 1p-1.05. Bit naught really as that price was way above the actual bid/ask but sometimes happens and then sites like this and H&L track the last trade as the closing SP

OHS

SARS - SP hasn’t dropped - it’s the same price as yesterdays close - not sure why it’s registering 12% down above - LSE must have opened with an incorrect value so when it corrected to actual SP, it looks like it’s dropped

OHS

Morning Strangy - I keep spotting that you refer to the CfD for AR5 being pivotal and important to SAE. Whilst anything is better than nothing, only £10m was ringfenced for tidal stream this time round. Obviously it will be good to know if SAE have something for the longer term pipelines, but current focus for the short to medium term is on upscaling MeyGen for the additional 28MW they were granted in AR4, which will be for 2025/2026 and 2026/2027. BESS seems to be the hot topic at the moment for the government and regional planning authorities, and their drive to bettering the environment so the added focus of complimenting MeyGen with a BESS site would tie in nicely with an expected reduced CfD in AR5. All in my opinion of course - happy to discuss/debate

OHS

Ref 09:09 post - Exactly. Selling ATES was not a loss to the company at all. They reduced their workforce overheads by c. 80%, they no longer need to find any funding to manufacture turbines, that’s up to Proteus now (or others). Proteus will rise their investment funding to manufacture their AR turbines and likely one of the following scenarios:

1. As SAE hold a 21% stake in Proteus they may provide some of the finance for the turbine builds through a capital raise

2. Any additional turbines sited at MeyGen by Proteus (or others) will pay a site lease (similar to current Uskmouth BESS project) and Proteus get all revenue…..or….

3. Additional Turbines are sited at MeyGen and SAE receive 21% of revenue stream from the 28 MW CfD, either with a lease charge or not

Sure there’s more scenarios but this is a starter. ATES developed the turbine tech but is no longer SAEs focus to be a developer of the tech. They no longer to be. It’s been developed, it’s been sited and it’s generating revenue - no need to raise astronomical capital to purchase a turbine when they can still monetise revenue from MeyGen with very little financial contribution

OHS

Missed the part about the 287MW BESS being at MeyGen, not Uskmouth

OHS

Just been re-reading the Annual Report and decided to post a quick 'at a glance' condensed version of the points that will keep me actively interested and invested in SAE for the short to medium term:

Uskmouth 230MW BESS:

1. £10m now paid to SAE for the development milestones and financial close of the project

2. Construction to commence later this year

3. Recently signed a variation to the contract for an additional 100MW of GENERATION - they worded this as 'generation', not additional energy storage so I am interested to see what this means

4. In the process of securitising the rental income stream over the 30 years life of the project - At the date of the Report, they had received an offer and are targeting finalisation of the transaction by end of 2023

Uskmouth 120MW BESS:

1. Advanced stage discussions with another developer (Enso Energy? - see screening report for this company reference) to co-develop a 120MW BESS. Currently in the planning process and SAE hope to be able to provide further details on this in the coming months with a target of a favourable planning outcome in early 2024

2. Heads of Terms for a land lease option with a developer for a second BESS project have been agreed

Additional BESS:

1. It was stated that 2 other BESS projects are being discussed - assuming the 120MW is one of them, there is another one potentially in the pipeline so more news to come?

2. Working on a BESS project of 287 MW with a grid connection date of 2027

3. SAE have identified the potential for c.1 GW of BESS projects at the Uskmouth site

MeyGen:

1. SAE have a 21% interest in Proteus Marine Renewables - The Group is working well with Proteus on MeyGen 1A as well as with regard to the potential tidal turbine supply for MeyGen 2 - possibility of the additional turbines required to increase MeyGen from current 6MW capacity to 34MW after the AR4 CfD of 28MW

2. AR5 results due before 8th Sept 2023 - £10m ringfenced for tidal stream from an overall Pot 2 value of £35m

OHS

Very much looking forward to some further details on the land lease for Uskmouth BESS, especially after reading this a couple of months back:

“Gerald Eve are delighted to invite proposals on a battery energy storage system (BESS) ground lease investment. BESS is a critical pillar in the energy transition and essential to reaching Net Zero. The project is being developed by an experienced, well-funded, ESG investment manager and will occupy a 9-acre site on a 30-year groundlease at an initial rent of £821,000 subject to annual indexation.”

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/delia-batt-5b43b9b3_net-zero-investment-opportunity-gerald-activity-7053747659169239040-OSAP?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

OHS

Great confidence boost:

“In previous years, the Company satisfied its short and medium-term funding requirements through a combination of equity and debt. Management’s forecast through to 31 July 2024 anticipate revenues from trading will INCREASINGLY meet the working capital requirements of the Group.”

OHS

Now that is a very welcomed RNS. The Report itself is stacked with a load of additional details and pipeline plans also. Quick glimpse highlights for me were:

287MW BESS plan at MeyGen

Recently signed a variation to the 230MW for an extra 100MW

Head of terms for land lease options are agreed with the 120MW BESS developer (ENSO?) - Emphasis on ‘co-developing’

2 other BESS projects are being discussed - assuming the 120MW is one of them, there is another one potentially in the pipeline - This will bring more upfront land parcel payments for SAE, further monetisation of land leases based on £/MW capacity as well

OHS

A welcomed update to begin the week. In typical fashion; short, sharp and to the point, with little other info divulged.....but do they really need to divulge anymore? It's all out there in the public domain....

For those who perhaps don't share my interest in Uskmouth over Meygen and haven't delved into the tinterweb searches that I have, the £4m payment is the development premium for reaching financial close and entry into a lease on Uskmouth's BESS project (30th Aug 2022 RNS). This is very good news (imo) - it de-risks a number of uncertainties, not just for the Uskmouth site but for SAE as a whole, and adds a good foundation to stabilise as a going concern, going forward. I'm very much looking forward to reading any additional details on the lease aspect and whether they'll mention the recent 2022 T-4 auction results where Uskmouth BESS has been allocated 53MW capacity for a 15 year duration at a price of £63/kW/Year? from 2026/27 onwards?:

https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/Capacity%20Markets%20Document%20Library/T-4%20DY%2026-27%20Final%20Auction%20Results%20Report%20v1.0.pdf

This isn't even a 1/4 of the capacity Uskmouth will be able to store. Hopefully further capacity auctions will utilise Uskmouth's planned capacity, not just for the 230MW site but for the 100MW extension to it, the additional 120MW BESS project that is planned for the old cooling towers site..... and whatever else they have in the pipeline

OHS

Strangy - they’re not building a 460MW BESS, they’re building a 230MW BESS with the capacity to provide 460MWh during their proposed 2 hour duration

OHS

LittleG - ref you 6th July post at 12:08: “The existing BESS lease agreement appears to cover the currently approved scheme for 230MW and an extension to 460MW, so that scheme and the more recently proposed one account for more than half the 1GW plan.” - I didn’t twig at first but having gone back through my research I think your reference to the 460MW may be regarding Quinbrook building a 230MW/460MWh BESS. The 460 part is the 460MWh (hours) that the 230MW BESS is going to be designed to produce, as they are opting for the 2 hour duration capacity. In simple terms; MWh (MegaWatt hours) is the capacity in MW x the duration in hours (h) = 230 x 2……This isn’t me teaching you to suck eggs by the way! This is a generic explanation for all who visit the BB to read if they are following these posts

OHS

Auto correct made a complete cluster of this line “ Bari my in my there will also be fire it’s auctions” which should have read “Bearing in mind there will also be further auctions”

OHS

Morning littleG - yes, I recalled that 85/15 split but didn’t want to correct you as it was a fairly irrelevant difference in the grand scheme of things. I too was unsure as to whether the £40m was before or after the split, which is why I didn’t mention it in my earlier post. I do concur though with your point about double dipping - I agree that the £10m is part of the £40m so many thanks for posting. Whilst we’re on the topic of figures and calculations, I’d welcome your thoughts and any calculations on the following T-4 auction where Uskmouth BESS has been allocated 53MW capacity for a 15 year duration at a price of £63/kW/Year? from 2026/27 onwards?:

https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/Capacity%20Markets%20Document%20Library/T-4%20DY%2026-27%20Final%20Auction%20Results%20Report%20v1.0.pdf

Bari my in my there will also be fire it’s auctions and capacity at Uskmouth should only get bigger - 53MW Is 1/9th of what their currently planned short term capacity plan of 450MW (230+extra 100 extension + 120 other BESS)…….not forgetting another 500+ up to the 1GW

OHS

Absolutely no idea why my post has been changed to lower case for every Upper Case letter I typed??!!

OHS

morning mt - everything is always subject to change but if we stick with a '*** packet' calculation based on what is known via media releases and rns, it's something like this:

circa £40m in revenue over 30 year licence - this is on top of the following:

£6m already received (milestone achieved - grid connection agreement to eos) - aug 2022

£4m due on financial close of the project and entry to the lease (development premium) - £2m of this was paid to simec group to pay off convertible loan so no outstanding loan with them anymore

seeking £11.8m (offers in the region of) for the land lease for bess - this will be used to pay off £4.97m (afe 2018 debentures)and £4.95m (aoe 2017 debentures)

so this equates to just shy of £50m to sae after debt repayments

additional info:

sae have aspiration to develop 1gw of bess projects at uskmouth:

1. they have already submitted a screening opinion for an additional 120mw bess which has been returned as not needing an environmental statement so planning application to follow in due course (as rns'd in mar 2023)

2. 100mw expansion to to current 230mw bess project

3. also exploring opportunities to develop bess projects at meygen

so very rough calculations based on this additional aspiration for 1gw would be to crudely multiply the land lease x3 (£35.4m), the development milestones x 3 (£30) and the revenue x 3 (£120m) = £185m

and this is just uskmouth, not meygen bess or tidal projects

ohs

Cheers Phyl. There’s certainly some very close coincidence and it does seem logical (to me). As always though, we’ll just have to wait and see

OHS

Bit more background to my previous post:

Quinbrook are partnered with EOS to build the BESS site

Quinbrook acquired Habitat Energy (a leading global optimiser of battery storage and renewable energy assets)

Habitat signed a new framework agreement with Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID) on 30th June: https://www.habitat.energy/habitat-energy-and-gresham-house-energy-storage-fund-extend-battery-optimisation-partnership-to-over-500mw/

GRID are the UKs leading energy storage investor https://greshamhouse.com/real-assets/new-energy/gresham-house-energy-storage-fund-plc/ …..so this is who I think will be investing in Uskmouth

OHS

Afternoon all. Seems there has been lots of interest and research going on regarding MeyGen which has been good to read, and I’m sure there’ll be more to follow. I’ve been paying particular attention to Uskmouth (as has always been my main interest) and thought it beneficial to highlight the following info to those who, like me, should find it very interesting:

Gresham House Energy Storage fund (GRID) proposed a placing in May 2023 to raise £80m for 390MW of pipeline projects expected to commission in 2024. This 390MW was broken down into 2 projects:

· 230MW of projects in Great Britain designed to a 2-hour duration which can be built using existing funds; and

· 160MW of solar with co-located 4-hour BESS projects in California, USA ("Project Iliad") requiring a total equity consideration through to commissioning of £135m.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GRID/proposed-placing/15961611

**The important part here is 230MW and 2 HOUR DURATION**

They raised £50m in the end ( Gresham RNS 25th May 2023)

If the dots haven’t been fully joined yet; Uskmouth’s BESS proposes 230MW and a 2 hour duration:

https://www.energy-storage.news/quinbrook-to-build-460mwh-bess-at-former-coal-plant-site-in-wales-uk/

“The project’s two-hour duration is indicative of a wider trend in the UK BESS market to move past one-hour systems, driven primarily by a shift to merchant, wholesale energy trading revenues and away from solely providing grid frequency response services”

OHS

On it should be ‘tar’ sands and not far sands🤦‍♂️