Member Info for Orange88

I must say this report sums up the situation very well, massive upside from here - 765% to be precise (225p target vs 26p current). https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/DNL-Interim-update-25-April-2019.pdf “Based on our clearly stated assumptions, the net present value of the cashflows that could be generated from DNL’s first two products alone equates to £248m. Risk- adjustment to take account of their different stages of development in different territories reduces this to £139m, or 225p per share.” “Whichever valuation method is used, there appears to be significant upside potential for the stock. However, the current share price remains dogged by the unexpected outcome of the Phase III trial in Europe with Chronocort, despite the fact that the EMA has seen the data, and paved the way for a regulatory submission later this year. The share price also reflects the fact that the company will require more capital in 2019 in the absence of any significant licensing deals. DNL’s US competitors, shown in the competitive analysis above, are cash-rich and looking for complementary endocrine products. Therefore, failure of the UK market to recognise the full potential value could see the emergence of a predator.”

IC link to the story that’s freely available; xhttps://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2018/06/08/sink-or-swim/?plckFindCommentKey=CommentKey:19ee0795-b83b-40c2-96f6-47525bd4e524

Good spot Trescareful, full IC text below; “Founded out of the University of Sheffield in 2004, Diurnal (DNL) is focused on developing therapies for the treatment of rare and chronic hormone illnesses. Its lead drug, Alkindi – for paediatric adrenal insufficiency – has been approved in Europe and is due to begin a pivotal clinical trial in the US. Sink: Management has taken the higher-risk route and decided to commercialise Alkindi itself in Europe. High-risk and expensive clinical trials are still ongoing in the US and Europe. The share price is currently supported by the potential for Alkindi. Although the drug has proved its efficacy in clinical trials, management will still have to persuade individual European governments to prescribe the drug. Sales forecasts are only moderate in 2018, and losses are expected to widen until 2019. Swim: Diurnal has further drugs in clinical development in Europe and the US. Chronocort – for adult adrenal illness – is expected to be launched in Europe in 2020 and in the US the following year. Alkindi’s US trials are relatively low risk as the drug has already proved effective in Europe. A recent £10m fundraising has provided capital for the European Alkindi launch and further support for clinical trials. Management is open to partnerships with larger drugs companies. Diurnal is a prime example of a biotech company that has got everything right. Venture capital funding helped the drugs through their earliest, highest-risk stages of development and Aim investors have been called upon to support the final stages of development. The group is operating in an under-served part of the global healthcare market, which means its drugs shouldn’t encounter much competition and have been given long-term patent protection. As with all early-stage biotech companies, risks remain, but these are beginning to shift from research and development hazards to those associated with commercialisation. The long-term outlook is good thanks to the strong drugs pipeline and management’s decision to work with partners to market the drugs in the tough US healthcare market. Swim.” Written on 8th June 2018 when the mid price was 194p... apparently the share price wasn’t underpinned by Alkindi! Truly crazy that it’s got this low.

This actually reminds me an awful lot of STX - it dropped from 170p in May 2017 down to 15p in April 2018, in hindsight it was a screaming buy down there but nobody (myself included) bought and held for the five bagger!) I feel that DNL is in the same boat, with the string of positive RNS’s in recent weeks plus the promise of many more to come (just read the half year report, it’s stunning). Yes they need to raise some cash in Q4, but you can’t think for one minute that existing investors will want to be diluted at 25p given the progress that’s been made since the March 2018 raise at 190p! Ideally, they’ll agree a partnership similar to STX where they get a significant up front fee in exchange for exclusive distribution across the US/Japan. They already have UK, Germany, Scandinavia & now Australia, so it seems a matter of time for the remaining markets?

This is currently moving like crossword cyber security & Manolete Partners - very promising companies with tiny free floats. I think we could see £2 quite quickly given the clear progress since IPO

Gone straight to 30 - they’ll drop it on any small sells to try and get cheap shares to sell at a profit! This is big news & the upside is massive with the year high at 196p...

So I was right that Claire was offloading, but wrong on the number of shares she had... 22m before she sold 5m yesterday, leaving her with 17m to sell. 2.05p per share is almost triple the value they were when she arrived, and if she had the positive influence on company performance that everyone thought, it’s not im****sible we could see 0.7p again over the coming year IMO. It’s sad to see a company that had made so much progress go into self destruct mode.

Looks like Claire might have started to sell her 32m shares...it wouldn’t exactly be a surprise!

Would expect a good bounce back here today, dropped 16% on a net sells of 58k shares... 35% below recent highs and fundementally nothing has changed

It will be interesting to see what happens to the share price if BMN miss their Q1 production target... going by their recent performance, the chances must be quite high?

@Clark, yep I called that one wrong - everybody makes mistakes. Apart from that is, the core/cult of long term holders on this BB, who believe every downturn in share price is the result of either; a.) market manipulation b.) a shorting attack c.) a short sighted II selling their holding Production missed target 3 times in a row, which suggests serious problems that could curtail or at least significantly delay any plan for 5000t plus per annum. That is a potential reason (and there are many more) why the share price has fallen.

This board is so entertaining, I’ve never seen such paranoid shareholders! Reporting people who state a FACT that the downtrend is accelerating, yet think the bull spouted by some posters about £2 by Christmas is accceptable? Absolute hypocracy. 35% down in 2 months, but still 300% up on this time last year, this could have a lot further to fall if negative sentiment continues - and just because this post isn’t full of positivity doesn’t mean it should be removed!

@SRob, it doesn’t matter what you post, if it’s not 100% positive then you will get hammered by this board. Personally I think you are right to wait until the downtrend has clearly finished. I also think it will take a positive RNS to turn it around, and in the meantime if new investors get cold feet it could fall a lot further. This was always a possibility given BMN rose over 400% last year, but of course I’ll be called all sorts for even having the temerity to state this!

To counter the monotonous positivity of this board, I thought I’d post the following counter opinion; The last 7 months have seen; - three production misses due in part to declining grades - wildcat strikes - multiple examples of unplanned maintenance - a dividend policy promised by the end of 2018 that still hasn’t arrived - Mokopane remain “imminent” as it seems to have been for 18 + months Bushveld had an amazing 2018, but from the last 3 updates it seems very unlikely that production will breach 3000 T per annum without additional high grade ore from either Mokopane or Brits & clearly this isn’t going to happen overnight. So anyone hoping for £2 per share by Christmas, nevermind £20 had better realign their expectations, a year of consolidation between 25p and 50p is a far more realistic and likely scenario, until the production profile becomes a lot clearer IMO

Hahahahahaha, wasn’t CAKE debt free?

Boom, there it goes... 225p paid

Bid now 219.75 and rising, think we’ll see a breakout this afternoon to 240 or so - can only by via fill or kill at present..

Best thing here is there are only 67m shares in issue. 10p is only 6.7m Mcap!

Clearly all the bad news isn’t out Taff, stop trying to mislead again! In short; The FCA will undoubtedly fine them, the question is how much... Their margins will be impacted out to 2020, we have no idea what these new diluted margins are The 2019 losses could be similar to 18 if their forecast assumptions were based on incorrect data. Until the Jan 19 trading update sheds more light this is uninvestable IMO

28.8p paid, if the seller has cleared this will rise very quickly. Clear interest from a background buyer purchasing 3 x 100k yesterday afternoon