Prospectus Figures16 Sep 2018 12:45
@Neo, S4 merged with MediaMonks in a deal worth €306m, it wasn’t a cash acquisition and the founders of MM haven’t sold out, instead have taken a 13% stake in the new company with their shares locked in for 24months. So you can’t value S4/Derr on the consideration involved in this transaction.
Revenue/profit before tax growth in MM has been pretty spectacular; page 82 of the prospectus shows audited accounts with profit before tax of 2.7m for 2016 & 6.9 for 2017, growth of 255%, and for H1 2018 (prospectus page 139), profit before tax is reported as €10.4m, with revenues of €54m (2017 in total was €75m). Revenues and margins have both improved significantly YoY. So growth is pretty spectacular and in total contrast to WPP which has stagnated/declined over the same period.
Based on the above, I think we can make some estimates of a potential P/E ratio from which to value S4. Assuming profit before tax of €25m for 2018, translated to £22m at current fx, divided by the 255m shares that will be in issue, we get EPS of 8.6p. As MM is clearly a high growth (and profitable) business and there is the expectation of further complementary acquisitions that could boost growth even more, a PE ratio of at least 30 should be easily achievable, which would given a share price of 30 x 8.6p = £2.58 and a market cap of £657m
If 2019 PBT was to hit £40m (ambitious but possible given current growth and new contracts that will potentially flow via Sorrell), we could have EPS of 15.6p, and using the same PE as earlier, a share price of £4.70, and a market cap of £1.2b
As far as I am concerned, none of the above seem outrageous given the growth of MM, they are a significant company in their own right, and that was before Sorrell came on board. Complementary acquisitions could of course add further profit to the above calculations, but also increase number of shares in issue.
To close, just remember it’s taken 18 years to grow MM to this level, they have 750 employees and operate across 11 countries. If they were on AIM as an independent company, they could easily be valued at £500m + (Zoo Digital has a current market cap of £119m on revenues of £28m, and profits of £2.5m...) The market loves consistent high growth companies, so in reality the PE ratio of 30 could be significantly higher, and as stated earlier you can not compare this to WPP.
The more you research, the more exciting this gets, and boy am I glad I took a decent chunk on Friday. All the above is my opinion, please read the prospectus and do your own research!