Member Info for oogleflugal

Glad you flagged up Stockopedia ratings. I signed on with them back in the spring. I do find them interesting but I do question their ratings sometimes as being rather behind the gain or loss line, like a lot of these sites. I got slapped down when I questioned this but I feel more than justified in questioning their accuracy. Its a bit like a more sophisticated method of charting with comments, and a lot of financial and other statistical info. For ages Air was screened up as a potential short, but now they seem to have it as a top stock. They were terrible at rating GFRD as a top stock, now half the value it was then. Now the sp has fallen so has their analysis. Some of the regular contributors have been a bit luke warm on Air, but they do seem to get stuck in their own biases. However on the nitty gritty side of things, the numbers, they are very good. One of Ed's (the boss) favourite metrics is the ROE and ROCE, both of which Air scores very well on around the 20% mark. The other favourable figure for Air concerning financial position is market cap to enterprise value, one of the widest I've seen of any company. 40 million market cap verses 12 million enterprise value approx. Relative strength has been a bit wobbly as we know from the sp performance this year. I think it obviously got knocked from constantly being told the 10 million profit for the first half was a one off. Obviously it is true that they benefitted enormously from the disruption caused by the early stages of COVID, but Mark's rather casual forecast of 'we still expect to turn a profit in the second half' was perhaps a bit too relaxed for the market's liking. With the oversubscribed placing @75p it looks a more than a bit oversold now. The market has been a long time getting to grips with this stock and short term will need a decent set of figures to reassure . Again my feeling is stokopedia's high rating on AIR is a bit skewed by the one off, but they are the best investment site I've come across and pretty good value. Stockopedia are clear that they are only an information site of which there is a lot, not a recommendation site. Longer term Air looks a very solid little business and I will continue to add on weakness

Great work Trek!
On DIabra: “If we made a slight, slight miswording of [our release], I apologise for everybody, but fundamentally, we’re trying to do a good thing for humanity as quickly as possible,” Mr Compton told the Financial Times.
He described TT Electronics’ share price jump that followed the news as “chicken feed” in the grand scheme of things.
Clearly there has been quite a backlash to the order of the release of news on the viability of 'Virolens. Equally clearly to me any way , is the commitment of TTG to the project and the serious financial risk of Mr Compton's to develop and bring to market something that he is absolutely passionate about and has unswerving faith in. I can imagine his excitement on many levels and good on him. If the clinical trials fail or it is proven not to have the required accuracy , which is pretty much 'it has to be fail proof' then its doomed without further tinkering. A couple of commentators I follow are invested here. A Stokopedia contributor looks like he got spiked and therefore very irritated by the 'misworning' of the news release. Naked trader agrees that risk is pretty well all DIAbras. TTG 's placing at £2. 00 for a completely different venture was strange timing indeed in the midst of the doubts highlighted by a journalist on the credibility of findings on Virolens, but business doesn't tend to stand on ceremony on the order of play. So TTG seems to me like almost a free shot at potentially something fairly massive.

As I said the over day 'nice recovery,' Then it drops to 70p. So gladly bagged some more. The news isn't what you'd call supersonic. I had half been expecting a delay in contracts possibly, instead we get improved cash and membership to the doggy club FIDO. Not complaining but sounds like there are more deals in the pipeline which we'll need to hit the £1.00 broker target reaffirmed today.

A couple of things to consider. 1 your timescale. 2 percentage of portfolio. The last 3 rights issues including RR have all come up with a strange mathematical formula to a) to entice share holder investment, and b) I guess, trying to protect the Ri price to some degree. Hasn't worked so well with IAG or Saga, even though massively discounted, but also massively diluted. I see a certain commentator has suggested that this are a good buy under£1.30 because you still have time to to be eligible to buy the rights. So if you got in at £1.60 it could have been far worse. It usually pays not to try and be too clever. Really depends on individual circumstances. None of these companies shouts screaming bargain. They are all in serious financial distress with an unpredictable outcome. A month ago directors were thinking we were in a V shaped recovery. The future has become less clear in the last few weeks. I can't see any of them going bust, barring another global financial meltdown, but I think you have to be prepared to see your money tied up for at least a medium term. I fortunately have not been invested in any of them at the time of RI announcements , but I have taken positions in IAG and SAGA since their cash raises. I am giving this careful consideration. But I still don't know whether to wait till the RI is completed or buy now and take up the RI. I don't think shorting is immoral. It is annoying. I think profits are tax free which is an outrage, but there again losses are not therefore deductible. According to Croft of Stokopedia it actually helps slow the rate of fall and confirms/highlights financial problems. After all most people tend to try and avoid shorting healthy companies. Its simply a hedging tool. I don't do it because you can loose a lot of money very quickly as admitted by many experienced shorters. Why not try and buy into a better company. Even if it is a hedge arnt you just neuturalising you investment at best. So after all that waffle I think depending on your circumstances you could buy a few at this level and increase your entitlement or just take up your entitlement, but not if that leaves you over exposed. GL

Hello. Seems to be loads going on. They're going to manufacture a product for IAbra that can test for Covid in 20 seconds, then perhaps not until more trials are done. Then a placing to buy a US based electronic company. Schroders buys 5% of the company and sells 15 minutes later. Some quite chunky late buys this afternoon. More action than most places unless of course your organising a 10 for 3 Ri, or a 5 for 3, or 9 for 5. It never used to be this complicated raising cash. Any way bought a few this afternoon. I think one of the research profs at Bristol described the race for Covid testing as the 'Wild West.' Looking forward to more action next week

Hi Mark. From memory about 15.19/20. It was about page 20 on london stock exchange, might have moved down a bit from there to 25/30ish. No matter really as you say unlikely to have a stop on 100gs . Although all the more reason perhaps! bit beyond my pocket but there seem to be some here with deeper pockets than the directors. I think the timing of trades published can be a bit erratic which of course leads to some confusion about buys and sells, especially when the spread is small.

It was off book, but do you think not even if it was a stop loss order? This has mainly been sliding on algo trades of between 1 and a thousand shares. Typical mm games. There has been quite a bit of gyration in stock with absolutely no news and small volumes. No other trades anywhere near 50,000 since Mr Lock's dealings. I purchased a few at average of 2.40 having been monitoring it all week.

That 50,000 @ 2.378 trade could have been the drag down. Seems to have come back after that. Could have been a late reported buy as it was remarkably close to 2 small buy prices either side.

Looking at the positives. Greg Lock ex CCC chair takes reigns in march 2020. He has constantly bought stock most notably last week. Blackrock increased position in September. Many institutions bought in July, currently holding 35%. Debt is a big concern as it is with many companies. I think at this price it is worth the gamble that the very able Mr Lock is confident in either selling the company or turning it around. He may well be a very wealthy man but as with DeHaan and Saga they are both philanthropists and they kind of business men who do not accept defeat. There has been a hell of a lot of small bot trading possibly down to shorting or an institution trying to get out without anyone noticing! They would still have to notify at some stage. This is a risk takers market, so long as its well managed there is plenty of risk/reward out there. GL

See they have raised their target on plus to £9.50, which is currently trading at £15 +. These guys (Cammcord) are so far behind the gain line they must still be working in the previous century

** Canaccord says CMCX offers scope for core, underlying
medium-to long-term growth, unlike the other two companies

** Adds that CMCX can sign up more new clients, which
brokerage believes will help it to outperform its peers
** "IGG & PLUSP are victims of their own success and are
effectively now trading stocks, trapped in a mature phase of
their life cycle that implies underlying growth on a multi-year
basis will be difficult, if not impossible to achieve" -
Canaccord Genuity
** Brokerage points that CMCX has the ability grow active
clients faster than its closest competitor IGG and potentially
take market share
So why then the hold recommendation after stating CMCX can grow and take market share from the other two that are 'victims of their own success.' They really do earn their tripe these brokers

The cash burn of 6-8 million per month is for their whole travel division, which is apparently more than covered by their insurance arm. DYOR etc.

Correct 6-8 million per month. Wonder what Carnivals dockings cost, and they are not as well diversified. latest update on Saga site: Operations are planned to resume on November 5 (Spirit of Adventure) and November 18 (Spirit of Discovery). All previous affected bookings received full monetary refund (100% of the fare paid) or 125% refund in FCC (future cruise credit) with rebooking made within 24 months. Is this still happening anyone know?

Whoops, Chairman, not director.

I was invested in Autonomy before the takeover and did ok despite missing the takeover. I seem to remember at the time thinking the HP offer was well against the trend. These companies just seem to get clueless about about money and value. So I have absolutely no sympathy for HP, but how did MCRO do it as well? Perhaps they should now pursue HP. The one saving grace here is for ex- CCC director, Greg Lake taking the reigns. The ongoing problem is that the Autonomy fiasco runs deep both financially and psychologically. If anyone can refloat this they definitely have the guy with the right credentials

The trouble with this stock is liquidity and news gaps. I tend to have the blind faith that no news is ok'ish, and that which has been released has been positive. So it seems these price movements are not really based on anything particular. So easy to get impatient and from experience with other companies patience usually pays off.

Saga PLC - Kent-based holiday and insurance provider to over 50s - Announces sale of Bennetts motorcycle insurance broker to Atlanta Investment Holdings C Ltd, subsidiary of the Ardonagh Group, has been completed. £26 million. August 17th 2020. DYOR etc. Looking like sub 12p was a gift. In fact anything under 15p looks pretty generous, or even 20p. Think when its voted through next week the ship will have sailed. Maybe not literally!

Hi R. Do you think similarly Boris's backtrack on Huawei forcing BT and Vod to re-rig for 5g could be equally beneficial for MWE. I was at bit reticent to get too involved here initially because a journalist I quite respect has a bias against foreign companies listed on the uk stock exchange. I'm glad I overcame that slightly irrational view and doubled my holding a couple of weeks ago.. There are many positive reasons for foreign companies to list here as well as the more dodgy ones. Avst originally listed here because they were rejected by the NY stock exchange! I think its going to be as hard as ever to find winners in the coming months, but pretty confident about this whatever the sp does in the short term.

Just abut every company that has raised cash this year has done so overnight exactly to avoid this situation, the sp slipping below placing price.. OCDO (1Billion) IAG might have had an excuse to drag their fundraise out. Not sure the 10 million for the prospectus was such a great deal either. There are those who believe the placing should have and could have been @15p. I agree people who come on here seeking advise don't have to take it. The whole point of a bb is to discuss and debate views. It doesn't need to be in a hostile or rude way because that really doesn't help your argument or inform. Presumably most of us are here for the same reason. Trying to work out WTF is going on with our money. This is an awkward situation not just for Saga who I am sure will do their level best to turn this around, but every company battling to stay afloat through this uncertain time. Nothing is straight forward or without risk. GL all

FD sells, Auditor resigns. I think some kind of comment from the company would be reasonable, other than they are tendering for a new one.