RE: Where is this going?.9 Feb 2024 10:18
And that’s the crux of the situation SJ.
None of us really know what have, what they need or to what degree they want to reshape the balance sheet.
What we do know is they have over $8bln of contracts (margin unknown). They have two portfolios profitable to the tune of £100mln for 2023. They have debts to service with the larger one in 2026. Short term they need to be cash fluid (PC, you are correct in cash is king) to unlock advance payments/continue delivery of projects. We don’t know the receivables to be collected or collected since 20th December but legacy (predominantly Thai) my guess is between £350-£500mln. We also know there is a supposed $60+ bln pipeline for 2024 bids and dependent whom with I’d take a gamble on recent wins giving them a further $4-6bln of wins to add to the $8bln order book.
So lots of moving parts but very little negative other than probable cash of 100-200mln short term requirement. Can that be managed through renegotiation of credit, legacy receivables collected, sale of asset (I personally have no idea who gets hit in that scenario) or other solutions that I am sure are bottom of the list D4E or JV. If they ride this with the first three options then their price for a takeover will be big and they may not want to go that route as the past in their mind is behind them. Why recover a company to give all that value away?
So, in summary, we don’t know but I’m 99% certain they aren’t going bust. Everything else is a degree of pain or joy.