Member Info for onsolidground

Should hopefully in due course get back to William Currie investment levels, circa 30p to 35p range or thereabouts and with Lauren Brindleys Options price of 27p as an in between target.

That threat of a £45.2 Million potential liability (plus legal / court costs) is a substantial removal.

In it's own time...

Indeed. The Chrysalis potential legal action had put a huge damper on the share price as it was very substantial indeed.

"The draft particulars of claim note a claim of £39m, together with a claim for consequential losses of a further £6.2m."

Now defended and dealt with for minimal consideration and without reverting to courts. Substantial cloud removed.

Starts the year off on the right foot and what with all the expansion into 1800 new stores starting this month in with DM Germany and Walmart in the US.

dyor

At some point now the Ingenuity demerger is out the way, somebody taps MM and TGL on the shoulder and says "Listen up and hear us out - we have a very good proposition for you...

That's

~something they have a good working knowledge of

~ they know is conglomerate discounted and highly undervalued

~ a company where you can tweak / takeover the Management and add value

~ happy to go minority for a better buy in price

~ one you've stated your looking to make a bid for in Q1.

And hopefully nobody else beats them to it first.

If it is Selkirk Group I'd approach with 2 offers - One for 51% and a raised offer price reflecting majority control and one for 49% and with a reduced offer price.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/selkirk-selk-iain-mcdonald-executive-chairman

Noticed the Kelso trades also today Yorek.

If it's MM selling down then it might signify he no longer sees the need for a Pacman holding in Kelso (perhaps knowing something else)

Or perhaps Kelso are spying another company stakebuild and with someone topslicing prior to another placing.

Worth keeping an eye on for sure...

The biggest advantages of Selkirk taking either a majority or more probably minority stake is that with it they are after taking over the day to day management of Remainco and with appropriate tweaks to the Management and running of the company.

Despite all Iain Mac's allegiance and support don't forget that this is a Kelso / Belerion amalgamation and Iain Mac in the past we know has openly queried whether MM was the right person to be CEO of THG (and been told by MM to p off)

Having watched the present CEO's performance and group and share price performance since listing I think he probably has formulated a very good opinion.

Kelso will also have formulated their own opinion in 2 years having suggested a multitude of share price positive actions and catalysts to be enacted - none of which have been done.

# Demerger of Nutrition - suggested 2 years ago.

# Premium Listing. Didn't happen for 2 years - now happening in ESCC format in 6 days time.

# Share Buybacks

# Strategy updates

# More RNS updating

Like I say, they will both have their views.

Then just look at the other baggage associated here with the CEO, imho loose cannon Linkedin and newspaper comments (95% of all advice binned, my dogs got more..) - that virtually always cause a fall in the share price, a CEO who just won't travel out of Manchester to represent and sell the investment case for the company, an invisible chairman...

I think both Iain Mac / The Selkirk Board and Kelso will spy some real easy fixes in there and also will see nothing wrong with attaining a 45% - 49% initial stake. Nothing stopping them getting another 2% in the market and there will be other shareholders like QIA, OVMK, Oliver Cookson etc who can side with you and pass you over any 50% threshold in times of need.

Easiest fix imvho is new leadership and Selkirk know they have the personnel to provide it.

In play now.

It's all down to:

# the the timing of the formation of Selkirk Group,

# timing to FTSE Russell next reshuffle and Bid in Q1,

# the Kelso and Iain Mac cross connection and holdings,

# comments

# and the suggested deal structure they are after and how it fits in with previous THG bid rejections. #Nothanks on Linkedin.

I have an interest btw in both, or either, coming to fruition.

Come the bells at midnight licker Ingenuity is a private company and with MM as the largest shareholder, didn't you get the gloat!! Imvho Ingenuity has been a 2.5 year £1.5 Billion, whale chasing and non-delivering leach on THG's back. Best rid of but best of luck to all those who did elect in.

After midnight this then becomes the Remainco bulletin board.

"Therefore I expect the SP of THG to rise significantly in 2025, especially after March."

Given the latter part of those Iain McDonalds comments (And Kelso's average THG holding being 57.5p) I think you will see a Selkirk bid approach for THG Nutrition at some point prior to March and any FTSE 250 inclusion, when they know they will have to pay more.

Watch the presentation. It has THG written all over it.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/selkirk-selk-iain-mcdonald-executive-chairman

Happy New Year to one and all.

Nice lucrative side hustle these Neptune V Electrolyser sales and that RNS tab above is filling up nicely with them - and all at €5M Euros or £4.35 Million a go.

https://itm-power.com/products/neptune-5

Can't be too long before that 2025 - £18M-£22M Revenue guidance get's UPPED.

2025, hopefully, the transformational year for the ITM share price.

Happy New Year, however you choose to celebrate it.

You don't need to be a mathemetician to work out what's coming next.

You simply need to have a command of the 5 X table - as each Neptune 5 contract bags circa €5Million Euros.

2025 Revenue Guidance as stated on the 5th December update

"We update our FY25 guidance as follows:

· Revenue expected between £18m and £22m (unchanged)"

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ITM/first-contract-signed-for-neptune-v-t23bdqmafa39m3h.html

Does say the technology provider

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ITM/50mw-feed-contract-signed-rybmpnh9swqrj9k.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ITM/contract-for-three-neptune-v-lzh1hjr4u7qyfh8.html

And we're only just getting started.

There is also £2 Billion Government monies that should imminently be released for the 11 HAR1 projects and in which we shall also be figuring.

https://fuelcellsworks.com/2024/10/30/green-investment/uk-chancellor-rachel-reeves-announces-2-billion-funding-for-green-hydrogen-projects

And all the utility scale projects bubbling away in the background also.

Have a good New Year.

Sorry for the double posted quote in there.

Something probably amidst all those Kelso suggestions and hesitations and delays and a declining share price has caused Iain MacDonald to markedly cross the fence from full on THG allegiance to now apparently siding with the agitators and Activist Investor Kelso and in creating their combined acquisition vehicle - Selkirk Group which is actively looking for it's first purchase.

A timely approach for THG Nutrition before March my guess.

Catch you all in the New Year.

Early 2023 was actually when Kelso started urging THG to go for Premium Listing.

"Whilst we commend THG's board and management's efforts, we believe there are more actions they can take to ensure the share price reflects what we strongly believe to be intrinsic value. Specifically, we would like to see the board deliver on commitments made to investors."

Kelso said it continues to "urge" THG to review strategic options, alongside focussing on cash generation. As part of this, Kelso asked THG to consider a share buyback programme, as it views THG's share price as "undervalued".

The investor also wants THG to move to a premium listing on the London Stock Exchange from its current standard listing."

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1680181247477470600/kelso-urges-thg-to-focus-on-cash-launch-share-buyback-as-ups-stake.aspx

14th September 2023, a further mention.

"Shareholders would appreciate an update regarding the potential move to the Premium Segment. Most UK active fund managers and index funds are benchmarked or indexed against the Premium Segment and so do not consider shares listed on the Standard List, as THG currently is. Moving to the Premium Segment would force these funds to consider THG. As a result, we believe that THG should embrace the UK stock market and move as quickly as possible to the Premium Segment, regardless of future potential changes that may be brought by the UK Listing Authority.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KLSO/investment-in-thg-plc-update/16125229

" Shareholders would appreciate an update regarding the potential move to the Premium Segment. Most UK active fund managers and index funds are benchmarked or indexed against the Premium Segment and so do not consider shares listed on the Standard List, as THG currently is. Moving to the Premium Segment would force these funds to consider THG. As a result, we believe that THG should embrace the UK stock market and move as quickly as possible to the Premium Segment, regardless of future potential changes that may be brought by the UK Listing Authority."

6th Jan 2025 it finally gets there.

"28 November 2024

THG PLC

Transfer from the Equity Shares (Transition) Category to the Equity Shares (Commercial Companies) Category (effective 6 January 2025) and eligibility for inclusion in FTSE UK Index Series from March 2025"...

Nice few dates coming up to be fair.

2nd Jan - Payment date for the Ingenuity distribution - so lets see if thereafter with no dilution if we get an unexplained move back up. Bigger slice of a smaller pie.

6th Jan - After 2 years of kerfuffling and stalling, finally the official move to a Premium Listing / ESCC category.

It was always fresh Capital raised (£95Million) from new and existing shareholders to take THG Ingenuity private - so no dilution. B-shares the transitional vehicle to allow existing shareholders the ability to elect and rollover into Ingenuity, and then all bought back and more and cancelled. Cancelling any dilution in the process.

Can understand the dip from 55p to 44p when the B shares became active (albeit a 20% fall somewhat overdone)

Just interested in what happens when the 2nd Jan happens and when those and more are subject to buy back and cancellation, and unless mistaken the shares in circulation reduce by about 1/7th.

""following payment of the Ingenuity Distribution, the Company intends for the new B Shares to be redesignated as Deferred 1 Shares and subsequently bought back by the Company and cancelled. Following the B Share Redesignation, the total number of Ordinary Shares in issue will be fewer than immediately prior to the B Share Redesignation, resulting in each Ordinary Share experiencing a proportionate increase in its percentage interest in RemainCo and also eliminating in excess of all of the dilution occasioned by the Fundraise."

Interesting time to be holding and what with Fridays vote effectively giving a green light to Selkirk Group (or any other) should they wish to bid for any of Remainco.

Except I own and have traders.

"following payment of the Ingenuity Distribution [2nd Jan], the Company intends for the new B Shares to be redesignated as Deferred 1 Shares and subsequently bought back by the Company and cancelled. Following the B Share Redesignation, the total number of Ordinary Shares in issue will be fewer than immediately prior to the B Share Redesignation, resulting in each Ordinary Share experiencing a proportionate increase in its percentage interest in RemainCo and also eliminating in excess of all of the dilution occasioned by the Fundraise."

In black and white

"eliminating in excess of all of the dilution occasioned by the Fundraise."

Rock8 / Hades and however many other names you post under, everybody knows you're simply a trader and position posting so perhaps save your breath as the share price normally goes the other way in any case.

Ingenuity has been valued at Zero within THG in all its listed life and it's been a whale chasing strategic failure for MM, JG and the Board so it's a big goodbye with two waving arms and copious clapping off me, and leaving the best bits that are Remainco and those parts have always made up the best part of any Peel Hunt valuation. Kelso, Selkirk and Apollo all know that and what's the prize left in Remainco.

Selkirk and Iain Mac I have no doubt will come knocking if you just watch that Shares magazine presentation but in the interim I'm more interested in what happens in the week or so after 2nd Jan when the B shares - and more - all get bought back and cancelled.

Market Cap. today for record is £685M - off 1.53 Billion shares issue. Share price 44.92p

All know that the share price dipped from 54 / 55p to 44p in the 2 days from the 17th - 19th Decemberwhen all the transitory B shares were additionally issued to let people elect. Off still 1.5Billion shares that was Market Cap of £841 Million approx.

So after buyback that will reduce to circa 1.3 Billion shares with roughly 200 Million maybe slightly more, bought back and cancelled. So that's about 1/7th of the exiting equity (dip enducing) to be taken out of circulation.

So the interesting part is where the share price will head?

I'd try using Peel Hunt Rock8 as a starting point.

"This report is the most comprehensive review of THG I’ve seen since IPO. Peel Hunt used multiple analysts to compile the review, from Tech to Consumer Brands - recognising THG has 3 large, global businesses with different specialisms:

1. a very well-invested, Tech, Media & Logistics platform, with c4,000 staff globally

2. the world’s No1 Sports Nutrition brand Myprotein

3. one of the world’s major Beauty groups, encompassing Brands, Retail & Manufacturing

Many banks write research on THG, but it's rare multiple analysts with different specialisms come together like this. But for THG, it's the only way to ensure a true understanding of our group.

Here are some key conclusions from report:

✔ THG & the strategy makes sense

✔ THG is wildly undervalued on the LSE

✔ At 141p, well over 2x today's share price, THG would still be at a 50% discount to global peers

✔ THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years

✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

Gym time to work off some of the excesses of Xmas.

Prefer to have a discussion on Selkirk and who else might now be tempted to show their hand.

Selkirk and Iain Mac quite clearly say they are after something they know - tick, fits in his sphere of expertise, which THG does - tick, is undervalued - tick, which they can tweak re management - Big tick, and which they would be happy to say 49% stake - fits THG right down to the ground.

It could be NCC and Escode that SElkirk are after but imvho they could bag 51% or buy that outright.

All the specifics do point to it being THG Nutrition or THG Beauty.

All things considered with the demerger the share price shouldn't be this low (Was all new money, B shares all cancelled and even more bought back, leases transferred). Absolute sitting duck.

Enjoy your day.

Fairly balanced article off the Times which I have to admit have become much more sanguine of late on THG.

It does highlight quite fairly that the lease liabilities of £298 million will transfer to the spun-off THG Ingenuity entity.

and lets not forget that in actual fact it is virtually all new money in the £90M valuation (£95M raised) that is taking Ingenuity private.

So in effect negligible impact overall on Remainco, other than the dipped share price and more being bought back than ever were created to transition.

All nicely lined up for the taking, Selkirk, Apollo or whoever else may wish...