Member Info for onsolidground

No finance qualifications required really.

All you need to do is compare the market caps of APN and THG

APN is presently £551.25 million

THG is presently £581.03 million -

But THG is looking at £78M just about come their way in a VAT rebate, plus the ongoing benefit of 20% VAT saving which they have been paying, and which the CEO has clearly stated some competitors have not been paying. So effectively THG is being valued at £503.3M and 10% cheaper than APN.

But as commented on here many times over several when highlighting the valuation gap.

THG Nutrition alone in 2025 generated virtually 6X the Revenue of APN. (£609.1Million versus £107.1Million)

But THG isn't just made up of THG Nutrition alone.

It generated in 2025, through it's THG Beauty division a further £1.107 Billion of Revenue.

You can perhaps understand why the CEO Matthew Moulding in the last results RNS referred to many businesses under the THG umbrella as "High Value Non-Recognised" businesses. Businesses like Dermstore, Cult Beauty, Lookfantastic, ESPA, Christophe Robin, Bentley Labs, Grow Gorgeous, Biossance, Illmasqua etc etc. - Any one of which at the drop of a hat could be subject to a bid and sold, or they could be IPO'd.

The table in the middle of this Wikipedia link lets you see all these "high value non-recognised businesses" and how much was paid for them. many of which have been developed and grown since.

Arguably THG Nutrition alone is undervalued compared to APN, and you are getting THG Beauty and £1.1 Billion worth of sales for free. Thats my opinion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/THG_plc

Looks like that's JD Sports sold out over there and under notifiable threshold. Must have been the end of a lockin period.

Should have done rather nicely out of it.

Probably a combination of both 1pencil, both JPM and the Vat Rebate.

But on the VAT Rebate specifically todays update posted on here post dates that March update and current and I think you'll find most were unaware of the March update and more specifically todays update. That sum of money will transform the balance sheet and Market Guidance will have to be amended upwards and analyst target prices.

If he doesn't wish to RNS on it until cash in the bank, he'll definitely get questioned on it, again, at next update in a week or so. It's a routine question off one of the analysts every time. (Andrew Wade if I recall)

Nice uptick today and a strong all building up nicely to the Q1 Trading Update. ( I did think Leak earlier?)

A few more like todays Uncrossing Trade should help build it nicely into that update.

14-Apr-26 16:35:11 34.98 1,083,566 Buy* 34.34 34.98 379.03k

Excellent news on the £78M Tax rebate news, and the extra 20% cash or competitive leverage not having to pay VAT in future will provide.

MM I think will wait till he has cheque in hand or its lodged in THG's bank account before announcing. Further debt reduction and maybe that dividend has to be on the cards. He'll have seen SFOR double with debt reduction and a dividend.

The last agreed ceasefire deadline runs out on the 21st April which is 1 week from today. That's the date to be watching .

Lots of moving parts. Another round of Peace talks, China, Lebanon / Israel ...

There won't be an oil major out there that wishes to see the Straits of Hormuz remain closed or blockaded for a further period of time thereby bolstering revenue and profit massively for the next quarter also.

China though now seem to be starting to speaking out and proposing solutions.

Because stanleyb has been trying to deramp it again.

Or is it that whoever has been the primary shorter and picking up stock has suddenly stopped.

Getting out and making their money prior to the next update.

Or just like last time, does it signify that there might be an after hours RNS tonight, just like last time around.

It's not really backed by volume so in truth one guess is as good as another.

Don't knock it though

Erdogan I believe backs Palestine and wouldn't have been happy with the other days events when 300 were killed by Israeli airstrikes when there was meant to be a ceasefire. When does this all end?

Google it. Telegraph and various other outlets.

Harmonica, whats your thoughts on the latest with Turkey's Recyp Erdogan threatening to invade Israel?

Stableyb you raise an interesting point, which is how can you "interdict" ships that have paid tolls and that are in international waters.

Ironically, if the comments come to pass, it will be the US that is blocking the Strait of Hormuz (for the Iranians)

I'm intrigued to see how this all plays out and just as we thought oil prices were heading back down.

Davffed, its not a tactic it is merely market commentary. That's a fact.

THG is in the FTSE 250 and generally follows that market.

Last week it was recovering on ceasefire prospects as were most shares and I was commenting on that. Trumps comments and actions is what is driving the market, one way and then the other. Some seemingly being fortunate enough to place big bets on the Polymarket just prior, something I also commented on.

I'll bet Oil share bulletin boards are anticipating and talking about a rise tomorrow. Leisure sector bulletin boards are probably talking about a fall. Others not directly affected will be digesting Trumps latest comments and will be guided by wider markets, especially Eastern markets overnight, and then any individual news on top.

It's called discussion.

Well I don't normally find myself agreeing with JG68 but having just looked at the updates coming out of the Middle East I do foresee a noteworthy fall in most markets tomorrow and dragging us down with it. It's not just the fact that no agreement has been reached with Iran but its the fact that we are back to the realms of esca;ation with emotive and threatening rhetoric and social media posts and now with the intended blockading of the Straits of Hormuz and interjection on any friendly toll paying vessels, by US warships. That will inflate the Oil price again and markets will drop. Markets anticipate and its always what they perceive next that sets the direction. Can't see Iran being happy nor other world leaders either so hopefully between now and 8a.m. there is a change of heart.

Recovered nicely. I'd like to say I'm surprised but have probably been here too long.

I see also according to the Times that investors bet $950million on a fall in the Oil Price just prior to the Ceasefire.

Pure luck also I guess for what ended up a near $20 drop in the price ofa barrel.

I actually thought THG might hold onto it's recent gains. The City though seems to have had other ideas and imo shoots itself in the foot by making it hard to invest in any such companies with such volatile swings and that just get kicked back and forth for low entry and then exit on gains.

Just good luck of course. (Behind a paywall)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/08/traders-make-500000-betting-on-ceasefire-announcement/

Brinkmanship right down to the wire but a Ceasefire deal came through about 11.45p.m. A weak cave in on the US part imo who have been looking for an off ramp

Easy dosh if you have watched repeated Trump TACO's (Trump always chickens out).

The million dollar question though, is will the ceasefire last. Only 14 days and talks start on Friday.

It'll be interesting to see if any large bets are placed on Polymarket towards the end of todays trading in the US, as seems to have happened previously on several occasions. Although I suspect on this occasion they might be scrutinising.

You and I on the other hand invariably have to wait for Sky News, Mark Kleinman, Betaville or an RNS to let us know whats going on.

1a.m. I believe and yes the Iran conflict and brinkmanship.

Unleash and there will be a lot of severe consequence I fear, not least $150 a barrel oil and climbing, untold retaliation, Houthis attacking Red Sea shipping perhaos and unthinkable consequence for inflation and markets more generally.

Refrain / Postpone and perhaps a nice uptick in shares.

High stakes game of poker and who blinks first

Over the next few days all hinges on the decision of one person in the small hours of tomorrow morning I feel.