Member Info for onsolidground

"Arguably, the market may have over-reacted to Revolution Beauty’s news stream and the company’s shares aren’t reflecting enterprise value-to-sales and EBITDA multiples of less than 0.5x and 5.5x respectively.

The issues with the audit have not, to date, categorically revealed any material issues, and Revolution Beauty may well surprise many when it eventually releases its results."

That gives us something to look for but they have kept that guidance the same.

Big rebound coming if it does surprise as the article suggests.

Jupiter started dumping around 31p themselves as that was where the stops got taken out on the morning of the first RNS. What we don't know is how many they actually put through on the pre-market auction which influenced the fall from 66p to 31p.

If there gone or as near as damn it then I certainly won't be shedding a tear and I certainly won't be investing with them.

It's looking like they are gone for there is none of the previous selling pressure that was a norm on here for around 10 days.

It's this bit from yesterdays RNS that points to the present share price still being well oversold imo

"It should be noted the potential changes to the results for FY22 do not impact the net debt position previously notified of £21.2m as at 31 July 2022 and management reiterate they believe that the Group's £40m revolving credit facility provides sufficient liquidity for the future. Management also confirm that guidance for the year ending 28 February 2023, as set out in the announcement on 2 August 2022 remains unchanged."

There a lot of ground to be given back what with initial hit of 36p, distressed selling and the spread all having taken this down from 66p to where we are at this time.

Not disputing it should have decreased but there seems to have been some massive double counting and Jupiter selling has definitely over accentuated things.

Personally I think it does possess the potential to bag. Jupiter gone or close to gone would be a fine start but equally as important would be who has been buying. 97M volume yesterday.

Maybe you could have answered on the relevant thread and I would have directed you to the words that Jupiter may "in part" be responsible.

All have watched the bulletin board here with Jupiter RNS's as described previously and the effects. After these it doesn't matter who it is that sells. Its called FUD and the effect is that it is assumed that it is them or they are continuing with their distressed selling. In come many others. Some who genuinely want to sell, shorters and spreadbetters. So even though it may not be them the perception created by the FUD on this and other bulletin board is that it is them all the time.

What happens though when they are getting close to being under 3% and no more published RNS's. All the piggybackers have lost their safety blanket. I think the shrewd ones maybe know whats happening and have bought or closed prior to RNS or the opposite effect which is FOMO.

Clearly the numbers don't all equate to Jupiter. Which ones though were you talking about, the sellers or the buyers?

Interesting thoughts off Paul Scott whom I admire and find informed although there are a couple of points which you might be able to help with.

In the text it mentions "Institutions seem to have been dumping this share for any price they can get."

The only sale RNS's with a reduction in holdings since the accounting delay all refer to Jupiter. Jupiter's predicament is well publicised and known as a distressed seller and costing REVB somewhere between 31p and 7p. Maybe even more if they popped an order in to sell on the opening auction with the 1st auditor RNS. So maybe its not a case of "Institutions" but rather Jupiter selling at any cost. Other market participants like shorters are conveniently overlooked. i think the main question might be what happens when that distressed seller has sold up? Volume today equates to over 3 times what Jupiter had left.

My second query is on inventory. Paul may well be correct on inventory build up but on the wider macroeconomic front on the run up to Christmas last year their was threefold pressures across most retailers and those heavily dependent on imports. Unheard of really all at once 1. You had freight costs rising extortionately due to Covid in China and a lot of containers grounded. $2k to $20K rises per container for some lastminute.com companies. 2. You had a well documented HGV drivers shortage in the UK due to Brexit and European drivers having returned home. 3. You also had port problems with containers amassing at ports and not being moved. Therefore although inventory levels are described as crazy, might some part of that not be prudently planning ahead of the busy Q4. Some may also be surplus from Russia and Ukraine which we know about. Guidance also for FY23 seems to have been still maintained.

Lastly People Power one other sentence just slightly confuses me. This one.
"Sorry for quoting my own work, but it saves typing out the same explanation again."
Are you Paul Scott or Jack? or is there another explanation I'm missing.

I am certainly not making excuses for the REVB board but just trying to create a broader picture for what may be behind the share price movement both down but also the noticeable buying that emerged and the move back up in the share price this afternoon.

1st August RNS. First sign of the accountants needing more time --- 67p to circa 31p on opening. 36p instant fall for those with stop losses. Out of auction and finished the day at 25p with Jupiter believed distress selling across the back.

Then about 9 further days of Jupiter further selling to yesterday --- takes it to 16p and a slight rise into a close of 17p

In between those dates.

4th August Jupiter Sale RNS --- 14.96% down to 11.50%. Shareprice though from the close on the 3rd August to the close on the 4th August finishes roughly the same around 20p. Candlestick shows what might be an "undecided" Harami Cross imo. Maybe they have stopped selling?

4th - 10th August. Keeps dropping to 17p. Jupiter still selling?

10th August - Jupiter RNS - 10.08% remaining and a Share price at 17p. drops to 16p and then rises again into the close finishing at 17p

Todays 1st RNS. Further Jupiter Sale RNS with a reduction in holding from 11.50% to 10.08%. Total of 31.23M shares remaining.

Todays 2nd RNS. Further to the accounting delays RNS of the 1st August... takes it down further from 17p to 7p at one point. Had started to fall to 16p prior due to what looked like more Jupiter volume going through. Rebounds and finishes on an Uncrossing Trade of 12.85p.

That extra 11M in 4 late reported trades makes it roughly 97M shares traded today.

Thoughts

1. Volume today is over 3 times what Jupiter had left . Market volume 97M v Jupiters remaining 31.23M

2. Strong rebound for some reason. Jupiter completely gone or alternative buyers. Probably both.

3. Give or take normal market movements up and down Jupiters distressed sale has probably in part been responsible for a fall from 31p to 7p, so 24p. The market itself has in between times rallied well.

4. The market makers already banked an initial 36p fall on opening on the 1st August for the acconting delay.

5. Did the Board trigger todays RNS across the back of their further selling to get rid of their remaining holding. Time of release seems odd and just after Jupiter I presume started selling again to go under 10%.

Over to you to work out where it should probably be without Jupiter as a distressed seller and any market making decisions on initial drop and use of the spread to influence.

Its worth sitting down later and working out how much the market makers dropped the price at keypoints.

That is what they will have in their back pockets to give back.

I'll be having a go myself later.

Place your chips.

The market makers have the upper hand in knowing whats been going on.

I'd be very surprised if they are not totally gone.

Been like a bad breath on here for about 10 consecutive down days.

If people had only spent their time pushing the buy button instead of trying to deramp on here.

I agree its looking increasingly like Jupiter have gone or are on their last dregs.

I think a few Alderban might be eyeing that Jupiter have completely exited.

"volume 76m with 309m shares in issue? thats massive."

Their situational selling has cost us about 30p imo

So maybe some are spying a bigger return than 5% to 10%.

Well there's definitely somebody in the background happy to catch the fruit as it falls.

it'll be nice to know who our new shareholders are

And that Jupiter are out for good.

They alone must have accounted for about 30p of the recent falls.

Sometimes just to stay where you are.

You could have topped up here at 161p a month or so back.

No such thing as manipulated markets. Its just sentiment. (Whoever creates it)

I haven't made money. Just lowered my average but with a good profit in sight for any future rebound. Allworth and Minto own around 30% so its over to them to restore value here.

66p to 7p off 2 RNS's with a distressed seller accentuating the falls was the tempter. Yes maybe a bit of FFTB but probably more about buying in in stages and knowing the busiest part of the year is yet to come and what they supply is at affordable prices.

Hit my 11p.

Won't be complaining though if it hits 13p.

Managed to get a decent 7.75p top up which has mitigated things and brought my average right down.

Might be a lot simpler than that Okehurst1 given the parties knew each other already.

Somebody has either done the maths or Jupiter are totally gone at 7p and 8p.

Maybe nearer 11p.

There has been a lot of depressed seller double counting on the way down here and its woefully oversold.

This should have been 1 RNS as opposed to 2. Same situation and covered its just the 2nd has the content the 1st should have had.

Present market cap for the whole group off the fundmantals tab above

Market Cap. £26m