Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hi Suggins and RPdard
I do wish wish you wouldn't start raising these issues so late in the day Suggins, as I have ended up spending half the night and then most of today trying to follow the tenuous paper trail, after the https://portal.madini.go.tz/map/ left more questions than answers. Particularly as it doesn't show the application for the Nyakafuru Reefs plot in the way it is currently stated, but whomever set up the ESRI software in Tanzania really does need coating in honey and staking out over an anthill - IMO. ;o)
Quite why the system requires license details some of the time without spaces, and with spaces the rest, and why does it not give the full title holder details when clicking on a plot on the map, but just a plot license number, and then when you search on the plot license number it then gives owner details is beyond me.
Anyway if AG1989 or Itsyou were around the might have answered this quicker and fuller, but what little I have gleaned so far is that Mabangu Mining Limited seem to still be registered with PL 5374/2008; PL 6220/2009; RL 0014/2014 - which as we know are all under current license applications from Tyacks and further that although Tyacks have some license applications showing the interactive map doesn't show all of them yet, but does show various mining licenses dotted across the areas, which I can only assume are for artisanal mining, judging from the names and sizes of the plots?
Anyway Mabangu Mining Limited was a 100% owned subsidiary of Resolute Mining Ltd, which is quite clear, as the annual reports, I am slowly crawling through detail various things including the battles with the Tanzanian Tax Authority relating to Mabangu.
have a look at page 24 (which is section 22) as it does give some details on part of the Nyakafuru holding when Resolute had it, but not the Reef area...
https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/RSG/01347305.pdf =
At some stage Manos Resources comes on to the scene, I'm not quite sure when, but presumably I will find where Resolute divest themselves, but I have not reached that point yet, but I thought you might be interested as it does give a lot of license information and a clear diagram.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170413/pdf/43hhlkpgjtq5t6.pdf
I need a break as my eyeball's are about to stop working.
@Mojolse
Obviously that is an impressive record, but based on what we are seeing with Caracal, you seem to be on a safe bet to keep your run going.
That's a good spot Magoo79, and quite timely as I was just wondering why so many posts/threads had apparently disappeared from another board that I follow - not mine I hasten to add ;o). But some of the posters had crossed a line away from just expressing a reasoned negative or contrary viewpoint, some of the time. It is reassuring though that the courts are starting take this matter seriously and holding individuals to account when there is obviously a causal link with SP values or reputational damage. I must admit that when I first started visiting these BB, I naively thought that if you actually purchased shares in a company, that most of the time you would be broadly supportive of what they are trying to achieve - yes I know, how could I have been so stupid?
@itsyou,
I was going to enquire why you were discounting the cost of the mining side of the currently stored gold ore, and only subtracting the processing costs when determining the profit margin? And additionally how we might account for the ore being added to the stockpile since the end of the last quarter?
But then it suddenly struck me that I must have lost the plot somewhere, as I don't actually know where the 6.3g/t ore mentioned in the results for Q4 2021 is coming from, I mean yes I know it has to be Kilimapesa, but I cannot remember when this higher grade appeared, but not sure exactly where? The trenching operation perhaps, maybe someone can take pity on me and clarify please?
@Greg25 and Suggins,
On the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Caracal won't just stand out from the crowd, at the moment Caracal will be the crowd. ;o)
And rightly or wrongly, I personally don't think the listing would be used to raise equity, as currently we seem to be sitting on a rapidly growing pile of gold, but possibly most importantly, we have seen that the acquisitions so far have both wanted to be part of the on-going action, and have preferred paper to cash.
Which is no bad thing as the extra shares don't cause actual dilution when they are adding such high value assets - particularly ones which are well over halfway to being producing mines in their own right.
@Greg25,
Even if Barrick wanted to Buy Caracal at the moment, which is unlikely, as it would no doubt look like a the smallest of minnows to them right now, there would no doubt be a heavy price to pay as they purchased the necessary 30% from PIs willing to sell, in order to force a takeover, as it's hard to imagine the Caracal BoD endorsing one.
@Greg25,
I have to say I do prefer your view of how things unwind, rather than my own and I just realised one factor that may well start the SP rolling in the upward direction, is when Caracal finally gets it's listing on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
I'm guessing Caracal is guaranteed to stand out and get a better hearing, where local knowledge will will be a potential game changer when it comes to buying decisions - I hope.
Look Suggins and JavierP, I'm not saying that Caracal are not innovators within the Junior Gold Mining space, because clearly they are, but, and it's a big but, they are following a well worn path, but not one normally walked by 'Juniors', as it can require rather deep pockets. So whilst we believe in the Caracal Team, we can only dream from this 'Major', example of just what might follow, on the path 'from “moribund” to Tier One assets'.
https://www.mining.com/barrick-gold-mines-in-tanzania-reach-tier-one-status/
Personally I'm sure we all believe that Caracal are quite unique in their on-the-ground approach, even though I have no doubt that Kilimapesa was on the RADAR from day one, because of the existing Goldplat connection, but the Kilimapesa development; acquisitions in Tanzania and everything else is sheer Caracal energy and dynamism.
Obvious though, if the first set of Assay results due in a week or two, show the first signs of Tier 1 potential, those existing shareholders will crying, but our tears will be from joy, whilst those who walked on by a Caracal investment will really have something else to cry about...
@Doddy-Body,
Thanks for pointing that out, as I have certainly been guilty of that mistake - it just shows that regardless of how many episodes of 'Aussie Gold Hunters' I've watched, I've still got loads to learn ;o)
@Greg25, Personally I both agree and disagree with you, but for a variety of reasons mate, as it really just seems a question of timing this year, rather than if.
At the moment though new PIs seem to be asleep to the possibilities, because as we know, Caracal does not fit into any of the normal pigeon holes, so there are no easy comparissons to make. Unfortunately I also suspect that the assay results will not cause much, if any movement, unless they are stellar (which is a possibility), but what most people won't recognise is what Itsyou pointed out, that we are really not looking for fantastic grades to achieve the 24,000oz/a target at Kilimapesa, just easy to access to reasonable grades will do just fine for an existing miner. So IMO the SP may not pop to 5p until in Q3 2022, when that 2,000ozs/m starts dropping in, month after month, assuming the POG stays around the current rate, giving an easy $1.8M/month cash flow, which will be very hard to ignore.
On the 10p SP by the end of the year, well IMO that again will depend on what lands and when, but if the central banks don't get a handle on inflation the POG might just spike and then you could be seeing 10p in your rear view mirror, particularly as Caracal will keep drilling and the results will likely keep coming, because as we know Caracal does nothing at a lesuirely pace, so anything could happen in H2 2022, to either achieve the 10p or even push past it.
So as ever the problem is others understanding Caracal, like we do, but until they do so, your postings will not necessarily be seen by Newbies dipping in our BB, as knowledge based enthusiasm, but instead just as continuous ramping.
Now I'm not saying that you are wrong, or even that you should stop, it's just we know what Caracal, have promised, what they have delivered and what they will deliver, and also we know that as well as that, they will likely surprise us with some fantastic extras along the way. So whilst I don't know what that epiphony moment will be , other than IMO it will come one day this year, when there is that sudden recognition that Caracal is the most exciting 'Junior Goldie' around and then that stampede will begin, and if it is during the 12 month lock in period, none of us will be selling up to keep the SP down.
But on the otherhand, I would be overjoyed if your veiw comes to pass instead of mine, because they both will look great in the bank......
@itsyou, Thank you for your informative and interesting post, which I do broadly agree with. Most of all thanks for confirming that the Southern Mineralisation zone lies outside the current Kilimapesa mining licence, which was what I thought I had seen, but I was getting confused by hearing so much about it alongside the Kilimapesa information.
I think the only view I would differ with you on, even though you definitely are correct that we need more exploration led information on the Kilimapesa resources, for improving credibility, resource valuation and planning reasons, I would suggest though, that unless truly outstanding resources are found within the Kilimapesa licence area, a plan B, underpinning the planned upgrade expenditure on the Kilimapesa processing plant decision, may possibly depend in the mid term, on gold ore from this SZ source.
Certainly, even taking the time to achieve a mining licence for the SZ, it would allow ~Kilimapesa to run at 2000ozs/m for possibly a couple of years while awaiting ore supplies from here.
Or, indeed my preferred option, allow for a mid term increase up to 50,000ozs/pa production at Kilimapesa by adding in the SZ resource on top of the hoped for 2Mozs of confirmed resource at Kilimapesa alone.
Finally, thanks again for making the great point about Caracal not being a normal Junior Gold Explorer, hence we know that it doesn't need particularly high gold/t grades to drive Kilimapesa up to the promised 2000ozs/m.
@JerseyCrew, thanks for the encouraging 24,000oz/pa profit calculation, but personally I prefer to think of it in terms of $1.8M profit/m (or to cash to spend on developments elsewhere), but only because for me, it's best to remember that, with the planned 6 week plant shutdown, it seems unlikely that the steady state 2000ozs/m will be achieved before H2 of 2022 - unless I have misunderstood the timeline.
Whilst we definitely will get there though, and we know the Heap leech will likely come on-stream earlier, plus the onsite assay will confirm, that good quality gold ore will continue to be stockpiled whilst plant redevelopment is in train. So what we don't know yet, is if the lost processing time can be clawed back retrospectively to fill in the shortfall. Whichever way you look at it though, it is very encouraging to know that at current POG, at least half of all gold produced is pure profit, and further planned efficiency improvements will drive this up.
Yes Suggins you are correct, but no real trace of actual detailed manifesto's as yet, but leading candidates appear to be:
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-12-28-list-of-presidential-aspirants-and-what-they-stand-for/
with the current leading pair being:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Ruto
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raila_Odinga
Neither of these gives much away.
Suggins gave the Caracal Guys 6 - 6.5 out of 10, which is very fair, but personally for one reason alone I'm going to give them a solid 10. Obviously like everyone else I would have liked more details, but the 10 is for resisting going for broke over the 1000ozs in December, once they knew that week two was a bust - because by my reckoning, they could still have achieved the 1000oz,s even at that late stage, assuming I'm reading the RNS details correctly? - here please check my math
6000 tons @6.3g/t (stockpiled 'wood chips' ore)= 37,800/28.35 (grams to ozs) = 1333.33 * 0.8 (80% CIL yield ) = 1066ozs, which would take approximately 6 days to push through if they were running 1000tpd - assuming this actually makes sense to everyone and I haven't missed something obvious?
Instead I think that they stuck with the non-contentious thing that I believe Robbie also said, which was that they were running the equipment hard so that they could see what it was capable of - which I took to mean would be an iterative process where you successively tune the various elements of the system to ease or eliminate bottlenecks, and actually baseline the performance of the various processing elements. Judging from the increases in gold output each month, something along these lines has been going on from day one, and so the fact that in the last couple of weeks, they finally hit a run rate that would produce 1000ozs/month, is good enough for me, and it was certainly more than good enough for the BoD to give the go ahead to start phase 3. What would be the point in doing so if you hadn't already worked out how you were going to mine sufficient amounts and grades of ore to achieve 2000ozs/m? I mean it would be totally pointless spending a shed load of cash improving the processing plant if you cannot produce the required raw material. So for me the final piece of the jigsaw fell into place when Robbie started talking about achieving 1.5Mozs of reserves, and Kilimapesa at the same time. Even though the assay results are still awaited, IMO the BoD must be very sure that the ore is going to be available, when green lighting the phase 3 development.
So from my perspective the Caracal Team have delivered another milestone at their customary breakneck pace, but what is actually more impressive, is that I now firmly believe that 2022 is going to be even better.
GLA
@AG1989,
I completely understand Robbie's position, we've all experienced situations where we have answered the question we thought we were being asked rather than the one that was asked, particularly when the figures used were so similar. Plus whilst I have difficulty tuning in to Robbie's accent and delivery, so probably the converse is true, as such his oversight is completely understandable.
Interesting interview, but slightly confusing as around the 9.5 minute point Robbie answers the question posed about the 1.5Moz reserves from a Kilimapesa only perspective, rather than about the Tanzanian additions, which lead to him to saying that we were still waiting for the drilling results to confirm the increase to 1.5Moz, which we are for Kilimapesa. Rather than answering the question posed which I believe was about the way ahead in Tanzania. Easy done in the heat of the moment, but unfortunately, probably due to time constraints, the interviewer didn't come back on that point.
Just in case anyone still has any lingering doubts about the effects on the workings of the Moroccan Administration during height of the pandemic, this latest measure should bring the previous staff availability issue into focus, which in turn adds credibility to GC's assertion that covid-19 did cause delays due to non-availability of key personal, at the crucial period when the ESIA application looked to be finalised, but unfortunately did at that late stage, require revisions on the aspects relating to water management.
Here is the Morocco's latest response to covid-19, which from our perspective hopefully will help ensure the availability of any required pubic officials:
https://www.challenge.ma/covid-19-3eme-dose-ou-coupes-salariales-les-fonctionnaires-devront-choisir-231963/
Sorry I thought it fitted...
Honestly the possibility of failure is non-existent as Kilimapesa alone guarantees that; being gobbled up by a Major seems highly unlikely the way that new acquisitions are being locked in, and I believe that the rate of growth keeps changing the value proposition of Caracal almost monthly, but certainly quarterly, making them a rapidly moving target. So IMO Caracal may never be a true Major, at least due to it's solely East Africa centric focus.
GLA
@AG1989, I must admit that even reading your posts and the many informative comments of so many others on this BB, I still don't yet have a clue how to put a value on Caracal. Not that I mean an absolute value or a price per share type value, as I'm certainly not knowledgeable enough for that, but just some clues that might enable a comparative type value with some of Caracal's peers. which in turn might indicate the SP trajectory in the short term.
To do this I started to do some research to try and identify what sort of Junior Minor Caracal actually is (and I apologise here as you guys undoubtedly know all that I am saying, but perhaps you can spot if I miss something):
So I looked at various articles on the subject of 'How to Value a Junior Mining Company' an finally found 'A Beginner's Guide to Mining Stocks',
https://www.smallcapinvestor.ca/post/a-beginner-s-guide-to-junior-mining-stocks - which seemed pitched at the right level for me to understand. so using the definitions within it, I asked the following questions:
1. Is Caracal an Exploration-Stage (“Juniors”)?
2. Is Caracal a Development-Stage (“Juniors & Intermediates”)?
3. Is Caracal at Production-Stage (“Majors”)?
I'm sure that no one will be surprised, when I say that Caracal fits into each of the definitions completely , except on the last category, the only part that doesn't fit is that Caracal doesn't have decades of history, Nor, world-spanning operations (unless you count the fact that Africa by itself is virtually the same land mass as large piece of the rest of the world see -https://www.visualcapitalist.com/map-true-size-of-africa/ ), but it does appear well-capitalized , and is producing slow and steady cash flows, which are showing all the signs of accelerating during H2 2022 and 23.
Obviously the article offers three possible outcomes for a junior mining company:
1. Most common is a failure, which leaves a hole in everyone's pocket, including that of the banks and investors. It is often said that only 1 in 1000 junior mining companies actually goes on to become an operating, producing mine.
2. The second fate occurs when a junior has enough success to justify a major paying a decent premium to gobble it up, leading to decent returns all around.
3. In the third and most rare fate, a junior finds a large deposit of a mineral that the market wants a lot of – it is a magical combination of the right deposit at the right time. When this happens, juniors can return more in a few days than a major will return in years.
Honestly the possibility of failure is non-existent as Kilimapesa alone guarantees that; being gobbled up by a Major seems highly unlikely the way that new acquisitions are being locked in, and I believe that the rate of growth keeps changing the value proposition of Caracal almost monthly, but certainly quarterly, making them a rapidly moving target. So IMO Caracal may never be a true Major, at least due to it's solely East Af
@AG1989,
As ever AG1989 a timely and thought provoking post - like you, even with the hoped for raft of excellent news and more in depth details of future plans, I am not expecting an immediate uplift to the SP, not because we aren't due one, it's just I expect the market will once again want to wait for Caracal to begin delivering on phase 3 for Kilimapesa before jumping in, as all the development plans mention a six week hiatus in gold production, and even if the heap leach comes on stream before the break, it's likely that gold production from this source will not have been reported by then.
Having said that I do share the belief that 2022 will be transformational for a lot of the reasons that AG1989 has already detailed, but possibly accelerated by the another asset purchase and the elephant in the room, how central banks cope with rising inflation.
@RPdard, yes mate I do seem to be a night owl at the moment, but I aspire to be abroad at some stage this year ;o)
GLA
@PotashPeter, Whilst anyone on this BB will reliably inform you, I am far from the best person to take advice from, can I politely suggest that you do not rise to the bait when this particular dynamic duo wade in. 'Makes' unfortunately always could be baited by them into over reacting, which is the object of the exercise of course, as even hyenas need something to laugh at ;o)
On the subject of 'Makes', he did unfortunately let his enthusiasm get the better of him, and rather than, as MrJinx suggests, did not get asked to leave due to posting dodgy Graham Clarke emails, but rather he posted L2 information, which of course is frowned upon when the organisation hosting the BB, is trying to sell the same information on subscription.
Unfortunately as ever, when a matter involves GC MrJinx only has a tenuous grip on reality, which in turn is vice like, compared to chisler on the same subject - and unless the choker is some ultra modern breakfast kitchen ;o) , chisler, I'm guessing you might be referring to chokey? ;o)