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@Clarets,
'Not many small cap goldies have their own drilling rigs',
is a significant, but often overlooked detail that differentiates Caracal from so many of the others in this field, and as such well worth pointing out, Thanks.
Oh dear chisler, I had personally hoped it might land a little sooner than that, or at least some sort of indicative announcement on the subject, otherwise now I'm thinking that I can probably predict what at least 39 of your following posts are going to say, between now and then. ;o)
Hi mickey1122,
Yes about 16 minutes in when Jay Martin starts talking about the Junior Gold Explorer/Mining sector things start to get very interesting, particularly when he talks about Crypto taking money out of the market that would previously gone elsewhere, but that it is essentially following the action rather than a love of crypto. I found that very encouraging as it does follow that as Caracal is able to start demonstrating it's growth potential, the investment will naturally follow, regardless of how the sector generally is performing.
One other point he mentioned earlier in the presentation specifically about his gold investments, was he is not a geologist, so he buys based on the Management Team, as he can read a resume and recognise the abilities displayed - I'm sure any Caracal investor would share that sentiment in spades.
@RPdard, I wouldn't beat yourself up about, if it was your direct mail that finally tipped the balance, I'm sure that a lot of us reported some of the more blatant posts that he placed. Let's face it, it wasn't that he was just presenting a contrarian view to the mailstream one here, it was 4 - 5 posts a day with two main messages,
1. Don't trust anything the company says .
2. Don't buy shares, or if you do want to buy shares don't buy them until I say it's ok.
He didn't offer a position for discussion, he was pure Judge Dredd in style - I am the Law.
Make no mistake , any downward pressure he managed to exert has directly cost us all money, because we will be issuing CLNs to purchace the assets, and whilst I accept fully that the assets are worth the cost, and will add significant value, the lower the SP at the time the CLNs are issued the more shares that will have to be issued. So John1977's persistent deramping did affect us all directly.
So personally I will shed no tears over his demise.
VikingShrimper, You are legend mate - I don't how you did it, but if you can bottle it, can I place an advance order for a dozen bottles, as I could certainly put them to good use on another board ;o)
At least you've saved me from having to do my last job of the day, commenting on some of the more interesting threads, to push John1977's rambling, self serving rants out of the top five threads.
Unfortunately I don't think that he will be able to stay away for long if he sees the SP starting to rise out of his preferred range, but unless he has already prepared for this event in advance it will be glaringly obvious. ;o)
Anyway whilst I'm still giddy from the sense of relief, can I ask you a personal question, which of course you can decline to answer, but... 'Are you by any chance a Southend supporter'?
@Bebeto, At the risk of ignoring all of the excellent gold mining and gold exploring news in the analysis of Align Research, I personally think that we may be overlooking one glaringly obvious fact, that truly makes, 'This is the Best Buy in the Gold Sector'
If there is a better, more in-depth experienced, knowledgeable, committed or enthusiastic BoD and the Senior Management Team running any mid-tier gold mining/exploring operation I would be totally surprised. I firmly believe that as a group, they are worth a couple of Million ounces of gold, in terms of the added value to Caracal, just by themselves.
IMO
GLA
Whichever way you look at it mickey1122, I believe that this note is a 'must read' for any potential investor, as it brings everything together in one place.
I must admit AG1989 I not sure which bit of news I find more exciting, either the range of possible new acquisitions of the fact that Riaan Lombard is even now making plans to improve the Kilimapesa operation with the suggestion that just the Kenya operations by itself could end up as a 75,000 - 100,000 oz pa operation. On balance I will go for Riaan Lombard, as he is already in play, whereas acquisitions however great they may be, could take many months before they become a reality.
I think you are right guys that there is loads in here and I'm guessing I will need to read some of these sections a few times to take it all in. I do believe though that in the end they had to rush this note out asap as the basis of some of their calculations is going to be altered dramatically as actual news is reported.
I must admit though whilst listening to all the good news coming out, I'm very glad that I'm a Caracal shareholder, rather than a Goldplat one. It's hard to believe that they overlooked all of the artisanal activity around Kilimapesa.
All in all an interesting read, but I was struck by how events are overtaking these briefing notes. The pace that Caracal is progressing is pretty unbelievable, it's hardly surprising that other PIs are overlooking the great opportunity here.
GLA
@Barravelli on the subject of,
'So Government owned OCP are wanting a potash mine (11 exploration sites) however none are viable, except ours. Can anyone explain the benefits of them "cooperating" with EML rather than just buying us out and building the mine themselves as we've done the hard work in terms of studies (feasibility, environmental etc.)'.
I personally suspect that OCP ended up with the licenses that no one else wanted to purchase (i.e. Moroccan Salts), and it's not that they cannot be mined as the do contain useable potash, just a lower grade than the Emmerson blocks. Also, again as far as I am aware, OCP haven't yet proved their resource by an updated drilling programme.
@ Ideas, Thanks for your considered reply, like me you are thinking about the issues and making reasonable conclusions, which although I don't necessarily reach the same conclusions from the same information, so this discussion is just a difference in interpretation of the events.
One pivotal element though is the length of time the ESIA approval is taking, which I agree is an appreciable time on the face of it, but I have to admit one self evident fact:
- No one contributing to this BB, myself included, actually knows how long a generic ESIA approval should in reality take.
I accept fully that the final stage (6) 'The Approval Meeting', will only take place when the Regional Investment Centre President decides to call a meeting. What isn't clear though, is apart from Stage (5) being completed, with the submission of all documents and possibly copies of said documents being handed over to all committee members, at least 10 days prior to the date of the meeting. Nothing else about timing is documented about arranging the meeting apart from what happens once the meeting has been timetabled. So something presumably triggers the President calling the meeting, perhaps a pre-meeting, meeting, ensuring that all members participate in the date decision? I mean, for example, would it be reasonable that the meeting went ahead without the committee member for Khemisset itself, not being present?
Anyway getting back to the timing issue, as I say don't know what is a long time actually is for moving from stage 5 and initiating stage 6, particularly when taking into consideration, collecting the information for the ESIA document was itself a two years process, but we do know that:
- the previous Regional Investment Centre didn't record any new decisions taken after March 2021. Though whether this was due to covid, or the members starting their electioneering instead, (or even a combination of both) is unknown.
- Elections National and Regional, were held on 8th September, but the Regional Presidents were not reported as elected until the 22nd September.
With, 'Rachid El Abdi, the sole candidate, was elected as the new president of the council of the Rabat-Salé-Kenitra region, obtaining 63 out of the 73 votes cast. The former leader of the WFP parliamentary group in the House of Representatives succeeds Abdessamad Sekkal (PJD)'.
- So currently we have had only a 4 month hiatus (as far as we know).
As for whether GC should say more, well, the BoD cannot say anything that could be interpreted as critical of the administration in a public fashion, so I think it most unlikely that we will get anything additional to what we have been told so far.
Interesting and a little bit scary CLINT1971, even though a shake up of Belarus' choke hold on the price setting process was long overdue - It also shows how analyst predictions can be stood on their head, as I remember how the original sanctions were seen as a bit of a damp squib in terms of actual effect.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-leader-has-little-fear-eu-sanctions-analysts-2021-07-01/
and even Yara wasn't in any rush to fall in with the plan at the time, but presumably the Biden administrations has managed to change their mind by effectively locking OCP and Russia out of the American fertilizer market for 5 years - I expect it didn't take them too long to join the dots, after their initial slow response.
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/eu-restrictions-bypass-belarus-potash-sales-to-norways-yara
With the Indian and Chinese markets still open to Belarus, I'm sure they will continue to supply potash, but with an estimated $500M extra necessary to re-route the material through Russia, always assuming that port and rail capacity there can be beefed up to cope with it. The result should mean that Belarus will no longer be able to set an unrealistically low price for Potash, that has previously made Ukraine complain bitterly, but the price will no doubt be a further cash windfall to Russia and yet more political leverage.
Obviously though the firmer and higher, the longer term potash price becomes, can only be a bonus during the debt finance negotiations.
@UncleJohn, you might want to replay the November LSE webinar, where GC stated around 14 minutes in, that after awarding the process facility design contract to a specialist contractor, 'the remaining 6 (design packages) will probably go to the same contractor, who may well become our EPCM partner going forwards' - so my belief is that only the contracts for the detailed design packages have been signed so far.
@Ideas and Baravelli, it appears both you guy's need to catch up a bit on your bedtime reading, to help unravel what is, or might be happening with OCP.
On the subject of whether OCP hold a mining permit for their 11 Khemisset exploration permits, I personally would say a definite no, as firstly there have been no press reports to that effect and secondly, the official Government website
https://www.mem.gov.ma/Pages/secteur.aspx?e=7&prj=21 only lists the Emmerson project.
Clearly though there are numerous excellent reasons for cooperation between Emmerson and OCP, so to further illuminate what might, or will take place at some stage, the Shore Capital briefing document dated September 2020 gives an overview of the various options on page 13 of 74 - the section titled: OCP elephant to significantly increase potash consumption
https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Emmerson_plc_EML_House_Stock_at_4_3p.pdf
The whole section is of interest, but a couple of paragraphs summarises the answers to the questions you pose:
'With the aim of producing at least some of its own potash in-house, OCP acquired certain tenements in the Khemisset Basin amidst those of Emmerson’s. However, we understand that Emmerson’s database of historical drilling results indicates that the bulk of potash mineralisation on OCP’s tenements is comprised of carnallite (which is less desirable from mining and processing viewpoints), generally with lower K2O grades.
We are therefore doubtful that a standalone MOP mine on OCP’s tenements will be
economically viable. Instead, it would seem to us to make eminent sense that OCP should look to strike a deal with Emmerson'.
I hope Ideas, that this helps allay your fears that there is some hidden agenda where OCP are working to slow Emmerson's approval, so they can get into production first, particularly as OCP would have to incur all of the costs that are currently facing Emmerson, and even if two mine/production facilities were built side by side in the Khemisset basin, there would still be a ready market for Emmerson's MOP.
I would also suggest that OCP are playing a waiting game and have the opportunity of avoiding $400M+ of costs if they let Emmerson build a mine and process plant and then strike a deal for Emmerson to mine and process the adjacent OCP potash, as well as purchasing the MOP that Emmerson produces for themselves.
I think everyone here agrees on the potential, and today's RNS is just another de-risking step forwards.
Continued from previous post..
My advice to Jason would be that Caracal is running at such a breakneck pace, that most small investors haven't been able to assess what has already been achieved, let alone what is set to happen, as most junior explorer/miners, wouldn't have reached this level in 5 years let alone 5 months.
Please don't think I am asking the guys to slow down to let the prospective shareholders catch up, but I do think your Web site needs a lot of updating, because although all of the information is there, you have to search for it and in some cases read multiple pdfs to bring all the information out, as the web site as an 'easy to access view' is falling behind in what it covers, even in what it is showing for Kilimapesa, let alone the Tanzanian assets.
All I can say is the first year of Caracal, hasn't even been half a year yet and the results are outstanding by any measure and even if you only manage to reach the targets currently set, I personally will be overjoyed - so a great big thank you to Jason. Robbie and all of the team.
It's an excellent idea idea to share our perspective with Jason:
1. I must admit that I would be mostly comfortable with the SP as it is, for perhaps the first half of 2022, if it wasn't for how it is hurting us when it comes to raising equity. But lets face it, the cheaper it is the more I can buy, so my personal hope is that this ridiculously low price could last until the first week of April, so I can stuff my ISA with as much as possible - purely selfish and totally unrealistic I know, but you did ask.
2. To me personally, the 3Mozs of reserves achieved in 12-15 months is starting to look an easy win, because if we are expecting Kilimapesa to rise to 2Moz this year then with the Tanzanian acquisitions we already hit that target possibly in Q1 and that is without the boost where Tanzanian resources can increase to 1.4Mozs if the Nyakafuru Reefs application is successful. If that were not enough, if you take Jason's repeated statement (which I totally believe) that we are still chasing more acquisitions, and aiming for bigger and better each time (which I get, as they don't just want to repeat the same thing time after time - no matter how good they are at doing it), then how many Million ozs, of reserves can we expect to be added, if only just one more acquisition were to land in 2022, even without the additional targeted prospecting that we know will take place in Tanzania? So my brain is telling me 5Mozs might be an underestimate, but just to say it out loud seems like outrageous ramping, so I just don't know how Jason and the team can signal it without sounding overly optimistic.
3. Riaan Lombard and Paul Reeves will make a fantastic team to run and develop Kilimapesa resources, and drive the development of the Tanzanian assets, which obviously begs the question, what will Robbie and Jason be focussing on once they are not helping drive day to day operations?
4. At the risk of sounding greedy, I would also like to know more about the specifics of how the Kilimapesa development will grow, but I realise that Riaan will probably be drawing this up, or at least overseeing it, so it is probably a few weeks down the line from the 1st of Feb.
5. Finally, though I could go on, the absolute top of my wish list is what I believe I heard from Jason or Robbie, that one of the prospective assets on the radar is indeed another producing mine, obviously very much down at the heel, and in need of that Caracal TLC to revive it, but I think it would really send the SP into orbit if it were achieved. particularly if it is bigger and a better prospect than the original Kilimapesa mine.
Continued in the next post....
Hillview1,
I have to say that I don't agree with your judgement of Rupert's contribution so far.
I know that you were not impressed by his liking a tweet that seemed to criticise the Moroccan Government over a controversial deportation decision, and frankly i think you are correct, in as much that as he should remember he is no longer free to publically express those sort of views, whilst representing a private company with business interests in Morocco. Even having said this though, I do believe that he will be invaluable during the presentation phase of the ESIA approval process, as although Emmerson have a number of talented Moroccan Experts already on their team, when it come to fine tuning the presentation, having a British fluent Arabic speaking ex-diplomat, seems ideal to me. Admittedly this role alone would not be sufficient to warrant a seat on the board , so personally I also believe that a much wider role, one demanding Rupert's full set, of proven skills, is on the cards further down the line, which will be a potential game changer going forwards.
Honi Soit Qui Mal Y Pense
Oh dear chisler, you really need to get out more.
Not the open air you understand, just outside your own head for a change.
Who know you might just develop a genuine sense of perspective instead of reliving past disappointments, and then looking for a scapegoat.