Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
@trytosmile
On LSE you were a buy, but on ADVFN, you were unknown, but whichever way you look at it you nipped in and picked up a bargain. Who knows, tomorrow's AGM might bring enough good news to turn the tide, but I'm guessing that today's sellers were just cashing out prior to the end of year accounting .
Whatever news tomorrow brings may or may not be what people are looking for, but IMO the second half of the year will definitely turn the tide, when the newly commissioned Kilimapesa plant improvement starts delivering 2000ozs/month regular as clockwork, maybe even more as the heap leach is a wildcard in terms of what it will deliver on a regular basis, but as they say, 'everything count's in large amounts', so a 10.000t/m heap leach cannot be ignored.
Whatever happens, there will be a production shutdown, whilst the plant is rejigged and upgraded, but the positive side is that the ore stockpiles will keep on building, so hitting the 2000ozs/m is looking fairly bullet proof, once the plant is running and the input ore mix sorted.
Like everyone else though, I'm keen to see some decent assay and resource figures, as they will be another factor which drives the SP up. Also it would be nice to get a preliminary outline of the exploitation plan for the Tanzania holdings, to add to the Kilimapesa gold pile.
So well played trytosmile, and GLA
@chisler
No assumptions chisler, just following your posted conversations.... let me refresh your memory.....
Barravelli, 'gonna give it until end of q1 and if no permit take my little profit and sell up'.
chisler, 'I fear you are right Barravelli, have had similar thoughts for some time'
Sound familiar chisler? ;o)
chisler, 'can you explain exactly how Mr Wynn is going to make us more (far actually), wealthier than we are today?'
I'm assuming that you you are familiar with the abbreviation, 'CFO', chisler, well that being the case, “Emmerson, ..... is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr Jim Wynn as CFO, effective immediately. Following the recent appointment of Barr Engineering and Reminex S.A. to manage the Basic Engineering work, Emmerson are set to progress towards full EPCM commencement later this year. A key part of the project development will be putting in place debt financing, in which Jim will play a pivotal role, and which Emmerson expect to conclude in Q2/Q3 2022.”
Presumably now you are starting to get an inkling, how this work might just raise the SP a tad, but I realise that you are probably still wondering, 'what skills does he have to be able to do this'?
Well, 'Mr Wynn is an experienced finance professional and chartered accountant with significant corporate experience, particularly in the resource sector. He has held senior management positions for a number of resource companies, including, most recently as CFO of Moxico Resources plc, and previously as CFO of Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd and finance director of Avocet Mining Plc, where he set up a partnership with Moroccan mining group Managem SA over the Tri-K project in Guinea'.
So chisler, there you are, I can only hope that this has saved you spending hours, DYOR? So now you owe me at least a gherkin, when I meet you next for fish and chips... Oh by the way, did I mention that Mr Wynn is a fluent French speaker?
Hopefully now you are feeling richer already, with that 'wealth' of information? Obviously though, we will all have to wait just a little longer for Jim to, 'show us the money' .
ATB ;o)
@aprogerson & PortfolioPower.
Thanks guys for a detailed and comprehensive analysis - I really wish I understood more than half of it ;o).
But I just thought to myself it's a producing gold mine at around 1p/share that has already doubled it's monthly gold output in the first six months and developments are so well on target, following the, '3Mozs reserves and 50,000ozspa gold in 12-18 months plan', that already the phase 3, '24,000ozspa of gold will land at the 11 month stage', and the assay results look set to hit the 3Mozs of reserves - WHAT'S NOT TO LIKE???
And whilst I might not understand all of the factors you guys are looking at, I can fully appreciate the calibre and quantity, of the individuals that are flocking in to join the team at Caracal, so all I have to realise, is that any of these individuals are sought after, and could get a job in gold mining anywhere, but they chose us. So any heavy lifting required, getting the Tanzania assets rapidly into production, is 'just all in a day's work', for them. Oh and did I mention that when most gold producers overhead's are now rising with increasing fuel costs Caracal's renewable energy at Kilimapesa is just starting to deliver reduced costs, and gold recovery efficiency is still being improved - so as I say, WHAT'S NOT TO LIKE???
@MrJinx,
I'm sure that I would have if I were an early riser , but thankfully by the time I had surfaced the comments were already coming in, and alas there were too few posts for that kind of news, which was probably best for me, as the rush of blood might possibly have finished me off. At least we all still have that to look forward to - the news that is. ;o)
Sorry to disagree with you chisler, but Mr Wynn is going to earn every penny of it, making all of us far wealthier than we are today, in the process, and additionally doing his bit to help feed the world - if that is not a cake with a big ripe cherry on top, then I don't know what it is?
Looking at the package detailed for Mr Wynn, I personally thought it struck an excellent balance between performance and reward, where increasing value in the SP has to be achieved, to reap any actual benefit.
Let's face it, we all want to see our poor undervalued shares to start moving upwards, and I'm guessing that we all understand what stages have to be passed on this project to see Mr Wynn start to reap some real rewards here?
But I realise chisler, that nothing I say is likely to persuade you, and the breakdown produced by a professional analyst like Simon Francis, just leaves you cold, so even though you may be leaving us shortly, I will hand this one over to MrJinx to remind you one last time exactly why we are all here......
'If we get to 8p, I’ll afford myself a knowing smile of satisfaction. 10p, I may start having a quiet giggle. 20p and I may even go and have a few beers. 40p, I’m having a party.........'
capishe ?
@MrJinx,
Nice to see that you have not started a trial run at 14 days of self destructive debauchery just yet. ;o)
I think it is fair to say that I have never doubted your personal commitment to investing in Emmerson. Everyone has to make up their own mind though, but clearly the lack of a defined timeline on the ESIA approval is not causing you to lose any sleep at this time.
The four individuals I spoke directly to though, was simply a reply to their own clearly stated position on the timeline issue, which I had thought that you would be familiar with? But if it helps to clarify my response, here are five recent posts which appeared in a row, so you can judge for yourself....
testpack3, 'I suggest there was no good news. I have over the past few months reduced my position to a small holding.....If and when the EISA arrives, the sp will not hit 20p. There will be ample opportunity to profit before mining commences'.
Barravelli, 'Brilliant points @testpack......gonna give it until end of q1 and if no permit take my little profit and sell up'.
Kimhappy, 'I tend to agree Barravelli. All my thoughts exactly'.
chisler, 'I fear you are right Barravelli, have had similar thoughts for some time, i will hang on till Q1 then downsize with small profit'.
Kimhappy, 'As testpack says. You can always buy back in. This will play out for a while if the permit lands'.
So MrJinx, do you believe that, as you put it, 'why is the first response to any criticism of the company, to tell investors to sell up and sod off', as personally I see no actual criticism here, just a total disbelief in what the BoD have told us, they have confidence will happen.
So pointing out the possibilities afforded by the current SP buoyancy as a preamble to the actual point I was moving on to, just seemed a friendly gesture under the circumstances.
Until I began researching the amount of expensive expert consultancy time, effort and RNS space that has been lavished upon the ESIA, I hadn't actually realised that it has underpinned and driven practically every other step or application that Emmerson has undertaken and prior to construction, is arguably Emmerson's finest product so far.
I must confess that I do sincerely hope that we have some good news on this by the 2nd April as regardless of what you make of Audible's translator enabled postings, it is a fact that fasting in Morocco from dusk to dawn is widely observed by healthy Moroccan adults, with the working day being reduced from 8 to 6 hours to ease the strain. So make of it what you like, but all types of business will take a productivity hit until May.
Certainly some of the exploration licenses covering the Reefs area seem to have fallen into the lap of the Tanzania mining commission once more, so someone adept and used to knocking on the doors of that Government organisation, will hopefully be, 'literally worth their weight in gold'. As we have seen with last round of state/private company joint ventures that have begun to emerge in Tanzania, and once that path is embarked upon, who can say what might come Caracal's way.
What a fantastic asset he will be on the Kenyan side of the border as well. I strongly doubt that even any of the Major gold producers have an expert, more dedicated, diverse and well rounded team, from the BoD downwards. Every time I look at the Caracal Team and remember how short an existence Caracal has had so far, I really do struggle to believe that I have invested here before the rush.
ATB and GLA
> CONTINUED FROM MY PREVIOUS POST
What we also know at this point is that although the ESIA document was supposedly completed on the 18 November 2020, it wasn't actually finally signed off by the Central Government agencies, until September 2021, having by that time fallen subject to delays from a pandemic, an elected regime change and late requirement's changes that were only determined after June 2021, but have subsequently been covered off by another study, now handed over to The Water Authority.
RNS Number : 9709C
24 June 2021 · Environmental approval process reaching completion.
> All technical work completed, submissions made, and review meeting held with the Environmental Evaluation Committee ("EEC") (referred to in Morocco as the ''Commission Regionale Unifiée de l'Investissement'').
> Public enquiry process completed successfully with full support from local stakeholders.
> Continue to work in accordance with the process of the governmental entities that are members of EEC.
> Awaiting final approval to be called for the evaluation meeting by the EEC, expected to be received imminently, subject to COVID restrictions in Morocco.
The Company has completed all significant items in the process previously outlined, all in compliance with best international relevant standards, and is now awaiting the confirmation for the evaluation meeting with the EEC, following which the ESIA approval will be granted.
RNS Number : 4618N
30 September 2021 Operational Update: Khemisset Potash Project
The Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) submission has progressed towards the final assessment stage and the Company has provided all information that has been requested by the Moroccan authorities subsequent to the last update
The team has completed various submissions to government agencies including, the water authority, l'Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de Sebou, Regional Department of Environment, Regional Department of Forestry, and Regional Centre of Investment. The water authority discussions necessitated the production of an additional study, adding time to the permitting process that was not envisaged earlier in the year.
RNS Number : 1087X
31 December 2021 End of Year Newsletter
The Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ('ESIA') submission is awaiting the final approval and the Company has completed various submissions to government agencies including the water authority, l'Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de Sebou, Regional Department of Environment, Regional Department of Forestry, and Regional Centre of Investment, as well as the public enquiry process with no objections and full support from local stakeholders.
> All we are apparently left to contend with now is a less experienced Regional Administration, and a spike in the normal ten year drought cycle, raising the stakes when approving any open-ended industrial water consumption. Obviously, any decision that is decided by elected Regional officials
> CONTINUED FROM MY PREVIOUS POST
After the Completion of Environmental Baseline Study, it is hardly surprising that Phénixa, with is dual skill sets in Moroccan Law and International ESIA standard requirements, is chosen as a partner to assist the Emmerson project team in the production of an ESIA document that meets all aspects of Moroccan Legal and Environmental requirements, and also is of sufficient depth, coverage and quality to meet the even more stringent requirements which are a prerequisite for International Debt Finance negotiations.
RNS Number : 2394A
20 January 2020 Important Forward Step in Mine Permitting Process with Commencement of ESIA at Khemisset
The ESIA will be completed in partnership with Moroccan headquartered firm Phénixa S.A.R.L. ("Phénixa"). Phénixa have been integral in all environmental and social studies carried out at Khemisset to date.
"The commencement of the full ESIA is a vital step in our preparation for submitting applications for permits. Once we have a report detailing all environmental and social impact risks, alongside our forthcoming Feasibility Study, we will have all information required to commence discussions in earnest with Moroccan Authorities.
"The ESIA is also a vital component of discussions with financiers, many of whom have already expressed approval for our commitment to complying with international best practice.We continue to use local consultants with extensive in-country experience, who have been involved in some of the largest projects in Morocco. Phénixa, in particular, has been fantastic in the work it has completed at Khemisset until now, and we are delighted to have them involved on an ongoing basis".
RNS Number : 7088B
03 February 2020 Partnerships with Moroccan University PhD Candidates to Assist with Environmental Studies
RNS Number : 0795D
17 February 2020 Commencement of Socio-Economic Impact Study to Confirm Khemisset as Project of National Significance
RNS Number : 1165K
20 April 2020 Finalised Decline Design Confirms Low Capex Mine Access at Khemisset
RNS Number : 4533O
01 June 2020 Feasibility Study Confirms Low Capex, High Margin Potash Mine with Outstanding Economic Metrics
RNS Number : 6969F
18 November 2020 Completion of Environmental and Social Impact Assessment
RNS Number : 3849O
9 February 2021 Mining Licence Approved for the Khemisset Potash Project
> As we know, the Mining License application itself cannot be made without a supporting ESIA document, even though the ESIA final approval is effectively stage two of the Mining License Approval.
> CONTINUED IN MY NEXT POST
> CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS POST
The RNS history actually puts the ESIA timeline in in context with other Khemisset Milestone events, and actually shows how it's production has actually enabled other steps like exploration permitting, and Mining License application to take place, even before it's approval and indeed, what a monumental effort it's production actually was (and, as ideas pointed out, how unlike a passport application, it actually is). Also the RNS history, shows the pivotal role by various Moroccan based entities including in particular Phénixa S.A.R.L, which is the Moroccan arm of an internationally renown ESIA specialist conglomerate :
RNS Number : 8410J
04 April 2018 Update on the proposed acquisition of Moroccan Salts Limited ("MSL")
RNS Number : 6827P
12 February 2019 Commencement of ESIA Baseline Studies enables accelerated development at Khemisset potash project
Emmerson is committed to developing the Khemisset Project in accordance with the world's highest environmental standards. The ESIA will be structured and executed to adhere to the IFC Performance Standards and the Equator Principles, which act as guidelines for best practice in terms of environmental and stakeholder risk management and are generally required by debt financing institutions to achieve financial close.
Following a rigorous selection process, Moroccan headquartered firm Phénixa S.A.R.L ('Phénixa') has been appointed to manage the baseline study and develop the framework for the ESIA. The scope of work assesses the potential impacts of the Project on various aspects within the project area and include:
> Land uses, social settings, and habitat types
> Soil types, flora, and fauna
> Climate, topography & elevation
> Surface water, and ground water
> Archaeology, anthropology, and cultural heritage
Phénixa has a strong track record in the delivery of ESIAs to support approvals under the Moroccan regulatory framework, as well as for international financing requirements for mining projects. It has assisted several large-scale mining and energy projects in Morocco, including managing the ESIA process and the Environmental and Social Monitoring Program for the Achmmach Tin Project, owned by ASX listed Kasbah Resources Ltd.
RNS Number : 0941T
18 March 2019 Completion of Environmental Baseline Study moves world class Khemisset project closer towards production.
RNS Number : 1184Y
07 May 2019 Commencement of Feasibility Study at Khemisset Potash Project Continues
Rapid Pace of Development
> CONTINUED IN MY NEXT POST
It was certainly a rollercoaster ride week last week, and I expect we are all interested to see just what this next week will bring.
Obviously top of most people's wish list will be the ESIA approval, and certainly there is one main question that I would love to see answered, so if anyone reading this post actually knows the answer.
'What is the normal amount of time between all of the ESIA documentation being signed off by all the appropriate Central Government bodies, and it being handed over to the responsible Regional Authority, does the President of that Regional Authority have to call the ESIA Approval Meeting'?
All we now know for a fact is that currently, at least in the case of Emmerson, it is greater than 5.5 months. It has been also suggested that the Emmerson ESIA might just be the first one whose approval has been handled by a Regional Authority, under the new Mining regulations.
Clearly though the lack of a known or knowable timeline, is causing frayed nerves all round, with most shareholders falling into one of two groups; Those who believe that the ESIA approval is just a matter of time, and those that believe that some unknown issue or change in Government thinking, is preventing the ESIA Approval meeting from ever taking place, and further that the BoD is covering this up - for some unknown reason.
So IMO, this means the first group of shareholders, of which I am part, remain nervous, but confident that EISA approval will happen this year, hopefully in H1, whilst the other group often comment on their lack of confidence in the BoD and see issues at every turn, but are unable to uncover any actual evidence to support their position - other than pointing out that due to the time delay and a lack of BoD comment something must be wrong.
Personally I cannot quibble with either viewpoint, but I do feel a certain sympathy for the naysayers in our midst, because those of us who believe in a positive resolution at least have something to look forward to.
Thankfully though, there is a possible happy ending for our discontented fellows like; Kimhappy, Barravelli, testpack3, chisler and any others of a similar mind-set. Because after last week's publicity surrounding Simon Francis' paper 'The premier potash play', the SP has taken an upswing, so, now at least they can now take the opportunity to leave Emmerson with their wallets intact and their heads held high. I for one will wish them every success elsewhere when they do so, and anyway, as some of them have already said, there is no reason that they could not rapidly return to reap the longer term profits, if and when they are shown to have completely misjudged the situation here.
For those of us that choose to remain, perhaps it is worth reviewing and remembering the long and detailed process that has brought us to this point...... see next post.
@MrJinx,
I'm assuming that the pesky spell checker threw out 'likely' when you hoped for 'literally'?
I am surprised though that someone as normally pragmatic as you would expect any response other than, 'the Company remains confident of a positive outcome', simply because any other position would 'literally' demand an RNS.
As for the Company PR release, I personally was pleased to see, such a professional in depth summation and analysis of information that we are all broadly familiar with, but now is presented in a single document, together with detailed outcomes expertly distilled from the facts.
Let's face it, we all know that globally the Potash production landscape is changing at a fast pace, but Emmerson really haven't had time to pause and update their company presentation to encompass all these changes - Particularly whilst working so hard trying to keep a future production date on the table and in the projected timeframe. Undoubtedly, we all want to see Khemisset Potash ore coming out of the ground in 2024..
So arguably, whilst the presentation is out of step with the current mood on this BB, IMO we should see it for what it is, which is a much needed advertisement pack for the Khemisset project, that provides a wealth of up-to-date information, that answers most questions posed by potential investors.
Whatever you personal view; love it, hate it or just plain ignore it, but judging just by the response to it last week, one day soon it may be helping many new PIs make the investment decision to take a holding in Emmerson.
Welcome noix,
Always a pleasure to hear a new voice on this BB, particularly from a recently joined PI, who's statements demonstrate that they have been sifting the Emmerson fundamentals and RNS's to reach a position where investing your cash at today's SP made perfect sense.
As you say reading too much into the wording of what is probably a standard Email response, makes little sense, particularly when Kimhappy said it was same response as before.
ATB and GLA
For Morrocco, the issue won't just be about Potash though.
https://tanja24.com/???????-?????-????-?????-??????-?????/
Hopefully though Foriegn Investment projects will be expidited.
@chisler,
Maybe not auththetic latin chisler, which is exactly why it is a perfect match for you ;o)
Let's hope that the final piece of the puzzle drops in and USA manages to stop the Crypto exchanges dealing with Russia, which should in turn put a dampener on the current round of Crypto speculation .
Please Audible, don't even joke about such things.
As for Morocco abstaining on the vote, it was certainly the safest option on the table, in view of all of the sabre rattling from the Russian client state Algeria, looking for any opportunity to turn a war of words into a shooting war - particularly in view of Algeria's own position on the vote:
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/03/347369/algeria-to-vote-against-un-resolution-seeking-to-isolate-russia
Algeria's military superiority in many areas has been a constant worry to Morocco for well over a year now, as has been shown by all their own military expenditure, and IMO the last thing they would want is Russia seeking to divert attention from it's own actions at this time, by encouraging Algeria into open hostilities.
Additionally Morocco has always had friendly relations with Ukraine, indeed an arms deal was due to be finalised just prior to the start of this conflict:
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/02/347014/morocco-to-acquire-ukrainian-varta-armored-vehicles
@GW62
On the subject of potential Moroccan Potash sales to the United States, in the first five years of production - IMO, it would always be a non starter for at least five years. This is due to the size and duration of the Moroccan state subsidies, on the table for the Khemisset project, would no doubt lead to unfair trading claims - which if the case last year against OCP is any guide, would lead to punitive sanctions on the trade.
But all of that would be a mute point if the Brazilian Potash market remains vibrant, as there would be little point shipping Potash further.
@testpack3.
Sorry testpack3, I'm obviously making this too difficult for you to follow, so perhaps I can make it clearer for you if I break it down:
> no EIAS, Which I take to mean 'No approval for the ESIA' = FACT
> no report on the BOD visit to The Kingdom, Which I take to mean 'No official statement from GC or RJ detailing their recent visit to Morocco' = FACT
> +I believe all is not well with the EIAS = SPECULATION
> The BOD , in their recent visit to The Kingdom, obviously made representation about the EIAS = SPECULATION
> the absence of a RNS, or even a 'tweet', I suggest there was no good news = SPECULATION
> I have over the past few months reduced my position to a small holding = ???
> If and when the EISA arrives, the sp will not hit 20p = SPECULATION
> There will be ample opportunity to profit before mining commences = SPECULATION
Hopefully you now know, fairly unequivocally, what the basis of my position is without any additional room for speculation on your part?
@chisler
si capisco
But as I personally I tend to subscribe more to ...
Illegitimi non carborundum ;o)
Well I don't know about you guys, but mentally I am prepared for just about anything this quarter, as I am sure that the first half is going to be, IMO, uncharacteristically strange. I mean at certain stages, parts of the plant are going to be dismantled and re-jigged to achieve all the planned improvements, just a question of when, with no published timetable as yet, just an approximate end point in July.
Whilst I fully expect gold bearing ore to be produced in quite probably increasing amounts possibly over the previous 'Record ROM ore production achieved at Kilimapesa for the Q4 2021, with 38,351t of ore produced from both the underground and open pit operations', but also hopefully more tons of higher grade ore as well - we do know is that there was, '6,000t of stockpiled material in wood chips grading 6.30g/t', which was expected to increase by around 600t/m, but won't be processed until sometime, 'during Q2 2022'
What I am also not sure of is what grade(s) of ore, if any is actually being processed, or just stockpiled at the moment? But we do know, that at the end of Q4 2021, 'low-grade ROM stockpiles stood at 25,746t at 1.5g/t and the mill skats stockpile at 5,547t at 2.30g/t, both of which are to be treated in the new Heap Leach Plant', so presumably both stockpiles will have increased considerably, possibly up to 10,000t/m by the end of Q1 2022?
What for me will be particularly interesting is whether or not gold ore processing has been temporarily halted to await an improvement in the recovery percentage(s), or will we be hearing that more gold on carbon is being stockpiled?
We know that, 'work on the milling circuit expansion will also commence through installation of the second ball mill, which is currently in Nairobi and scheduled to be refurbished. In addition, work on the new crushing and screening plant and upgrades to the thickeners, cyclones and installation of additional CIL tanks will also commence', so does this work disrupt production, and if so for how long (and when will it be completed)?
My personal view again is that the SP may not move, depending on all of these possibilities, and of course the strength of any assay results released - although on the assay results, obviously what the Bod saw at the end of Q4 2021, was more than sufficient to give the green light to the Phase 3 improvements. As I say IMO, the SP may not improve until Kilimapesa 2K is up and running, which shouldn't affect LTH in any way, so long as the BoD are not contemplating acquisitions during this temporary lull in the SP - certainly not a problem for me, so I hope if any of my predictions come true, it won't adversely affect anyone else, and we can all just look upon it as an opportunity to stuff our S&S ISAs with more Caracal shares.
Q2 2022 may be 'strange' in a similar way, so the SP may not rise (and I hope I am wrong) until post July, when, assuming the PoG holds/improves (I cannot see why it will not), we will be awash with gold to s
Once again I find myself in full agreement with chisler, in as much as trev79 you have summed things up very succinctly - thanks.
@testpack3 Fri 15:03, now that your post doesn't have the bits that start with '+I believe' the facts are quite axiomatic, but unfortunately using real facts as bookends, doesn't make the bits in between, facts as well - I hope this clarifies things for you. ;o)
I would also suggest, that a belief of what is happening with Potash supplies and Suppliers, is irrelevant to Emerson, just because of the lead time to actual production, is a somewhat naïve view of what influences large scale investment decisions.
And yes you are quite correct in thinking that the LTH here believe that good things will come from Emmerson, quite how good remains to be seen, which obviously leads to some confusion as to why some other supposed holders are unerringly negative, but still hang around like a bad smell? Anyway if chislers source has provided a true steer, then you will be able to 'nail on' a new fact, 'that on this occasion your negativity was misplaced, as you were completely wrong'. ;o)
But no doubt if this is the case then we will both, in our own ways, be overjoyed?
GLA