Member Info for oldschool3

Hi Adamsky, they are the million pound questions (2 million in fact) :)

My view remains that it is a binary bet from here on in. I have a small position that I will add a little more to as we get closer to the 27th, but only with monies I can afford to write off. I still see no commercial reason why the option would be called early. As for an RNS, probably come out a few days after the event as PFP lawyers will want to verify everything before making what could be a major announcement to market. My worry is the option gets extended for a further due diligence period. That would be hugely negative IMHO and really painful for shareholders to endure more of this torture. I would rather it was a clean cut yes or no on the 27th. Win or lose. YOLO

Are we seeing a final shake of the tree before the rocket takes off? GLA

and another 100k for me.

It wouldn't surprise me if we see some buying now into the 27th December option expiry date. A classic buy-the-rumour sell-the-fact scenario. Looks like Align got the jump and purchased a 15million share spread bet as per the last RNS. So, in good faith and given I had already slimed down my holding at a higher level as a hedge against the binary events of the 27th, I have bought a few today and will continue to, albeit a small amount here and there and just as a flip. GLA

Oldblue1973, just for your education, herewith an extract from Align's excellent research piece in the subject -

"Reassuringly, this morning’s announcement also contained a comment from the Chairman of AAG, James R Stothard, who said that, “I am proud to announce our Option Agreement with Pathfinder to acquire 100 percent of the share capital of IMM in order to vigorously pursue the Claim against the Government of Mozambique. AAG has a proven track record of international claim enforcement. Working with our international legal team at DLA Piper, which also has considerable experience in these types of disputes, we are confident of a successful outcome which will benefit Pathfinder and its shareholders.”

Here we should point out that DLA Piper is the numero uno in terms of litigation in Africa. Any government looking at DLA Piper across the table in a meeting would think “I didn’t need that”. Meanwhile, AAG offers intelligence and asset recovery. Although for good reason there is little published information about AAG, they seem to be involved in successfully unwinding toxic debt situations such as defaults on sovereign loans and are very active in West Africa and Nigeria. It is really good news that Pathfinder is bringing in AAG as they are clearly experts in this field."

Align know what they are doing and always write good research. I prefer to be guided by them. GLA

Oldblue1973, you have the wrong company. LOL. :)
PFP have entered into discussion with Acumen in the UK.
acumenadvisorygroup dot com
You have researched and made negative comments about completely the wrong company.

Lookingformoney, not sure who said that but ignore it. Complete nonsense. The deal is PFP would be selling its 100% owned subsidiary to AAG. You don't hold shares in that company. Only pay out you might get is if PFP decided to declare a dividend and distribute some of that cash to shareholders - which is about as likely as England winning the World Cup. IMHO It will be quite some time until revenue flows in PFP provide a regular dividend to shareholders.

Hi Adamsky, good post. Just a couple of observations - AAG are holding an exclusive position so even if TZM made a move before the 27th, AAG benefit so why exercise early. No commercial reason to exercise early. Besides they might string this out a bit and ask for an extension, I know I would if I were in their position, why pay over the £2million until you absolutely have to - get all the work done in the background risk free to AAG.

I don't disagree with your eventual 4.7p target but in the real world any recoveries could easily take a year or two and if a full BIT claim is the only route taken then add another year or so to that - I don't see the Moz Govt panicking and paying up before they need to and even then it may not be in the form we are envisaging. Going to be a tough one to call timing. GLA

May I enter this debate? Sorry for new sign on name, I lost my previous oldschool account as forgot password and do not have the old email address I used to use, so unable to recover it. Anyway, I am always interested in fellow shareholders price predications and the basis or no basis for them. Lookingformoney, you have posted a price predication post exercise of the 27th December option at 4p. How did you arrive at that? 4p gives a market cap of £21 million. I don't see how an injection of £2million cash and a heap of goodwill can get to a market cap of £21million.

Bugzy, you are looking for the option to be exercised before the 27th December. Why would anybody do that? There is no Theta degradation in play here with the option. Therefore no commercial or financial reason to exercise early. Again, I am interested in how you arrive at such a prediction.

I am watching this share closely. It really is a binary play. If they fail to exercise the option and walk away then IMHO PFP shares delist given a major collection company and legal team with a strong history in African asset recovery have lifted the skirt and found no value. The company only remains listed because of this asset. If the option does not get lifted then PFP will be considered a cash shell. If however they lift the option and PFP receives £2million, then market cap goes straight to £6million - a share price of 1.3p until such time as the company invests that cash into revenue bearing assets and in parallel receives some recovery on the Mozambique position - at either of those stages, the market cap will ratchet higher. How long until we get to 4p? Who knows as these two revenue generators are completely unknown. Maybe a year, maybe much longer. The play here for me is to slim down a bit with a small shareholding that I can afford to lose given the short term outlook is binary. If it goes well, come in for more shares as 2023 progresses and the likelihood of company revenue increases. How are you all seeing this play out now?