Member Info for OldRascal

Unfortunately, timing for Stage 2 is not controlled by the company. Just like when you buy a house many others are involved and the buyers hopes for early completion are thwarted by all and sundry.

The good news is that the mine build is much more in the hands of incentivised and motivated individuals.

Work continues day and night seven days a week.

Stage 2 backstop will be when the bank balance hits zero. It will be unforgivable if the lenders fail to give this project their full attention and with a sense of urgency. Unfortunately, my experience tells me that time is not a factor for financiers.

OR

With any sizeable project it is important to have milestones along the way. They need to be delivered for the project as a whole to be delivered. But not all milestones are on the critical path.
A slight delay to Stage 2 has been mitigated by bringing formpward the money from Gina.
We may have sufficient TORPs to satisfy potential lenders.
Stay calm, the work carries on.

OR

I like the risk conversations.

We talk about transferring risk to contractors. This is great if the project comes in on time and budget - Sirius get the mine and the contractor bags the profit AND the risk budget. If it’s a little late or costs a little more it is still ok - Sirius get the mine and the contractor learns some lessons for nex time.

The problem is if huge additional costs are needed. The contractor goes bust and there’s only Sirius left to put things right.

We need the risks not to materialise.

OR

Some time before Stage 2 is announced the shares will have reacted to the news due to leaks/insider knowledge (insiders being from any of the parties dealing with the funding).

If dilution is limited, the sp will have headed north and if significant dilution is involved or the HMG guarantee is not as hoped, the sp will drop.

I don’t see it dropping below 20p but it could rise as high as 60p IMO. Therefore, now is a great time to load up.

Buy on the dips they say. Look at the chart and tell me that this is not a dip.

OR

Oops, I misread the graph. Ignore me.

OR

Link to presentation.

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/investor-presentation-november-2018/

OR

The graph on Page 9 of the latest investor presentation suggests it’ll be Year 5 of production before production outstrips contracted supply.

There will be plenty of customers once they see the effect that Poly4 has on the profits of early adopters, imho of course.

OR

HMG (or rather, the Civil Servants dealing with the paperwork) will be looking for ways to avoid providing a guarantee. It is likely that the Dark Forces previously mentioned will have been lobbying strongly with brown envelopes and free holidays. If a guarantee is secured it will be despite the best efforts of HMG/CS and not due to them.

Personally, despite our chairman saying a guarantee is essential, I believe the mine will be built even if the guarantee doesn’t materialise.

I’d say there is a 60% chance of a guarantee being delivered on time.

OR

It may get bumpy - but not that bumpy!

Hold at all costs, buy if funds allow.

OR

Para 28

https://siriusminerals.com/site/assets/files/5527/ypl6_ws_chris_fraser.pdf

Good enough for me.

OR

ExPotash

You must try harder.

To reach 20mtpa Sirius will build a 2nd production shaft using the MTS shaft as the starter.

Mining polyhalite. See myth busters in Sirius’s AGM presentation.

Next.

OR

Slide 22 shows the Stage 2 financing plan.

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/investor-presentation-october-2018/

OR

The extra funding requirement gives us a wider and more robust tunnel. This is a 50/100 year project and I think the additional £5m - £10m per year of upfront investment will pay dividends (pardon the pun).

Those in charge of the purse strings like to play at Dragon’s Den and will be trying to find ways not to let the Project go ahead. But, for me, the investment case is simply too compelling.

OR

Maybe somebody sold them to you?

OR

There has been an incredible amount unit of work on all sites. It’s only been 18 months!

OR

The trials used polyhalite from Boulby.

Sure, we have recovered core samples from Woodsmith but not for use in trials.

OR

At the presentation at the Mining Institute, Sirius’s geologist said words to the effect of ‘first polyahalite is when one person can be lowered down one shaft to recover a handful of polyhalite’.

I didn’t take notes nor record the presentation but from memory that is how I understand the milestone to be. And it makes perfect sense.

OR

I met casapinos at the recent presentation in Newcastle’s Mining Institute.

We listened to a fine presentation from Sirius’s young geologist and met Rick Smith after whom the mine is named. I left the event feeling at least as positive as ever. Casapinos came across as a careful, savvy investor. Maybe Sirius, with no dividends yet, isn’t for him. He certainly isn’t the kind of person to place all of his hen’s embryos in one basket.

I agree that there are risks but the risks are somewhat less than when I first invested in 2013. The impact of project failure are higher because I have more shares but the chance of project failure is many times smaller. Even Mrs OR seems to be more settled with my (oops, our) investment.

OR

I believe that there will be multiple road headers (but happy to be corrected).

https://www.tunneltalk.com/York-Potash-11Apr2018-Shaft-sinking-operations-at-UK-Sirius-Minerals-Woodsmith-potash-mine.php

OR

My fopirst thought was that it needs mirror tiles. How awesome would it be to stand in the middle of that?

OR