Member Info for OldRascal

My thoughts exactly Scotman. Up to $600 million for a wider tunnel with thicker (stronger) walls in a tunnel designed to last decades should prove to be a wise investment. I wonder how many dollars will be saved in future years because the decision was taken to improve the quality of the build before ground was broken in the tunnels?

Besides, in the grand scheme of things, $600 million is no big deal. There are billions of toonnes of resource waiting to be sold at great profit.

I believe the project will deliver. In the absence of a crystal ball I just need the balls to hang on in there.

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He won’t reply.

If it did it would probably be that the sp is what it is because that is where the market thinks it should be. With uncertainties surrounding Stage 2, serious investors will wait before risking their own or their clients’ money. He is working towards delivering a successful Stage 2 funding solution before the money runs out in Q2.

The project is on track. He couldn’t comment on Stage 2. News could come at any time but will probably be at the 11th hour.

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I trade with Halifax Sharedaling. I had to phone to ask for invites and hope to be at the next AGM.

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Is it time to can them?

Anyone interested in the project can follow Sirius Minerals on social media. The updates were intended to prevent the sp slumping during the long build. Now that major events are happening most months I don’t see that the updates add any value.

What do you think?

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If I had £1,000 with zero debt and borrowed another £1,000 I wouldn’t be any richer. If anything, I’d be immediately poorer.

Now, if I successfully spent the extra £1,000 on a money making project, in time I would be richer.

We just need Sirius to get the money, build the mine and start selling Poly4.

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If we do not need the guarantee then it will not be available. It is that simple.

If we do need the guarantee then it should be available - but this is only ‘given’ on commercial terms. There isn’t likely to be much difference between the cost of commercial debt and the cost of IPA-backed debt plus the cost of the guarantee.

I am not overly concerned that the money to complete the job will be available. But will it be in time to avoid a delay to the project (and huge costs of any such delay). Hopefully the IPA will provide a guarantee to help prevent a delay to the project.

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Locals employed.

As if October 2018, Sirius had 180 staff, 70% from the local area*. Of the 650 workers involved in construction, 45% were local compared to the 35% estimated during the planning process.

* local is defined as within a one hour commute

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/181024-lgf-minutes/

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The main thing that I take from the RNS is that the money runs out very soon.

Stage 2 financiers have the upper hand in any negotiations. I don’t feel that they (the financiers) are team players.

It’s time to pull the rabbit out of the hat.

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There was never likely to be anything exciting about the quarterly update. Exciting stuff will be released via RNS.

The IPA Guarantee will be the last resort. Only if Sirius Minerals cannot raise funds by other means will the IPA Guarantee come into being.

Not long now until we get the Stage 2 announcement.

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ffcmember

The Lockwood element mentions two TBMs. One to LB from Wilton and one from LB towards Woodsmith.

There is a third setting off from Woodsmith.

I would hope that if Drive 1 (from Wilton) could make exceptional progress then the one from LB towards WS could be deleted from the plan. But, as it stands, there will be three TBMs.

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I’ll guess at 80:20 for debt to equity on the $3 billion i.e., $600 million of new shares at around 30p each.

The $400 to $600 million additional funding requirement coming from a strategic partner.

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https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/380150/devonport-berths-hms-montrose-on-research-mission

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I could write the quarterly report by simply gathering together all of the updates that we have had since the last report. When it comes it will not include anything that we don’t know already.

Stage 2 funding is what we need to hear about. But that is not likely to be released in a quarterly report.

Buy on the dips.

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The sp is doing quite well without the update. Be careful what you wish for.

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Surely seasoned investors in Sirius understand that extracting 7.2 Mtpa from a shaft only a few metres in diameter and a few shovels is unlikely.

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Interesting read...

https://gizmodo.com/the-worlds-longest-conveyor-belt-system-can-be-seen-fro-1566742063

If you use a google maps you can search for Boucraa and see the conveyor running along the side of the N5 road.

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Google ‘ft Whitby mine’ to find the story outside if the paywall.

I think that ICL will mine it until such time that they can buy it cheaper.

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Appychap

Could one of Sirius Minerals PLC’s main rivals be about to throw the towel in?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/209765/could-one-of-sirius-minerals-main-rivals-be-about-to-throw-the-towel-in-209765.html

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Sirius have bought polyhalite from ICL (or a 3rd party) to complete all of their crop trials.

Now that ICL have a product range that includes polysulphate blends it is likely that they will want to continue to supply their customers. It will probably be cheaper to buy the product from Sirius (or a 3rd party) than to mine it at Boulby.

I’d like to see ICL as the strategic partner for the $500 million funding requirement. They stump up the cash in return for one million tonnes per year for 5 years and access to the same amount at market rates thereafter.

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