Member Info for OldRascal

Three options.

1. Throw the towel in.
2. Compete with Sirius Minerals.
3. Go in to partnership or takeover Sirius Minerals.

I think Boulby’s days are numbered. Option 1 sees them closing Boulby and buying polyhalite from a n other supplier. Option 2 would need them to find a new source of polyhalite and build a new, modern mine and Boulby isn’t it. Option 3 may be a possibility but then Boulby would be surplus to requirements.

If they do nothing then it is likely that closure of Boulby will be forced upon them if and when Sirius become the preferred supplier of Polyhalite products.

Whoever it was at ICL that allowed a newcomer to secure mineral rights right next door to their Boulby operation must be a tad embarrassed. History will show that securing these rights was a stroke of genius by our experienced board of directors.

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When will the TBM Nani g ceremony take place?

We don’t know when the annual accounts will be published nor when Stage 2 financing will be finalised. Best guess is ASAP or mid April as the company puts it.

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It’s always great when a potential risk (aquifers) is turned into an opportunity by excellent, world-class project management.

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Why would shorts closing see people selling. Surely they need to buy to close shorts.

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I think you cannot use thenVsM from the surface level.

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The 3 tranches announcement was really just confirming how the IPA works. They are only allowed to guarantee loans if no other option exists. Therefore, by only potentially guaranteeing the final tranche it would seem to me that the other 2 x tranches were just about ‘in the bag’.

I believe the business case is so compelling that a successful Stage 2 outcome is within grasping distance. I have neither read nor seen anything to make me doubt this.

It’s April tomorrow. Putting the clocks forward this morning made it an hour nearer. The stars are aligning for Sirius.

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Jesse11
I broadly agree with your post however, the IPA Guarantee did not change. It has always been the case that the IPA can only provide a guarantee for any funding that wasn’t otherwise available.

If the banks were willing to lend $2 billion then the IPA Guarantee could only be for the remainder.

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At those speeds I think one TBM should be enough. Two will certainly be plenty.

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It has an area for shorts.

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Yup.

Same drivel interspersed by the occasional on topic and interesting post.

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FTC

Sell up and buy again at 20p then your average will be 20p and you will find inner peace :)

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Tunnelling speeds
Looking at Crossrail and TBM Phyllis. This TBM tunnelled 6.8 km in 522 days. A rate of just over 13 metres per day.

Sirius are targeting 17 metres per day. This is eminently achievable. The geology is pretty well known and Redcar mudstone is likely to be much easier to cut through than the minerals that were cut through under London. Sirius don’t need to navigate through the infrastructure that supports a capital city. The spoil isn’t being transported from the site by barge.

The FT are either wuckfits or devious.

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‘The Company is working towards obtaining firm commitments for the Alternative Proposal and it’s additional financing requirements before the end of April 2019.’

I’m not sure that can be defined as the ‘end date for stage 2’.

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/sirius_minerals/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=485&newsid=1239308

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Dilution.

At present I own shares in company with very little cash and lots of liabilities. No funding to complete the mine.

If and when Stage 2 is secured I will have shares in a potentially huge cash-generating mine for the rest of my life. Possibly for the rest of my, yet to be born, great grandchildren’s lives.

If it all goes belly up and I lose all of my investment then so be it. It won’t make my life any worse but if it goes broadly to plan it will make the lives of my kids so much easier.

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My thoughts are that a drop in share price favours the shorters and the potential buyers of new equity (by reducing the sp at which they might buy new shares).

Therefore it is these parties who are likely behind the drop.

I rises back when the shorts have been closed or through natural progression to fair value.

Just like jr, I have never sold a single Sirius share. I don’t expect to. Ever. Not because I’m clever or have insider knowledge but because I daren’t.

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CF hasn’t ditched the banks. Discussions with them have been paused.

Pausing the Stage 2 process with the banks was clearly RNS-worthy. Had they been paused and the company not gone public with the new offer there would have been SP carnage.

The shorters won’t care if they lose a bit on shorting SXX; they will be shorting other companies and their gambles will, on average, work out just fine.

But I agree with your sentiments regarding SXX.

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I wasn’t comparing anything to anything. I was simply pointing out that Crossrail’s TBMs did not average 38m per day EACH.

On the other hand, Sirius and others have used Crossrail as an example of what can be done. I agree much more planning was required for Crossrail and the medium being excavated much harder. I’m sure Strabag will easily achieve their contracted target. Any bonuses they receive will probably be related to the benefits to the overall project.

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Burdon

Crossrail used 8 x TBMs to tunnel 26 miles over 3 years. Do the maths.

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In time, even the strongest opponents of the mine will see that it enhances the National Park and boosts tourism as a result.

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We can think whatever we want. But we must be careful of Optimism Bias.

It may be that after a number of years, the banking group were close tofinalusing their due diligence and that they are prepared to lend the money - at a price. This new financial institution may or may not finalise their due diligence and be in a position to make their offer by the end of April. Maybe neither will make an offer.

But we are close to running out of cash. Time to bail out or hold your nerve. I’m doing the latter.

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