Member Info for OldAlarvian

Im Holding £50,000 of CPI and believe this will 3 bag for me in a few years - but US market is just far too high with valuations unreasonable - Im expecting a severe downturn within the next couple of months and holding cash for it.

When the market drops, CPI will take the hammering that it always does.

Im not AIM and his silly deramping - but I think US is going to see a major fall in Dow / NASDAQ that always creates a sell off in UK and CPI is always hit harder. This is why we have over 5% Shorts

You have to be in, but keep cash spare for opportunities that lay around the corner

DYOR & GLA

Jumped in on Wed morning with 5k and sold at close to 5% today - i like trades in companies that i think are undervalued and this is one I will be in and out of regularly until it breaks 17 quid

good luck LTH, this will come good im sure

@bigpunt the cash debt is tiny and the past 12 months profitability from known business is decent with very high cash conversion

Not sure what you are looking at but 1B in 12 mths is definitely a possibility

Very low volume today and a slight pull back - no reason not not see us hold 300 next week - made 250quid on 5k from Diagio in last 2 days and same from Softcat so been decent 48hrs on a few small trades - I will hopefully get a few 5k trades on CPI in the next couple of weeks and see my LT hold appreciate well alongside it

Good weekend everyone - keep some cash, there is gonna be a big drop in the markets soon IMHO

@bigpunt excluding disposals. fcf should be close to 80M this year and for H2 annualised, likely 120M (someone recently posted the waterfall of fcf that the CFO set out on the call. He took midpoints on everything or worst case, so this could easily be 150M fcf annualised from H2 26)

1Bn valuation is very possible within 12 mths without wins

The quality of the work they are now giving to Govt is very high there is no reason on the back of those that more contract wins dont happen (the pipeline is huge).

There is also the possibility of work for other Govts in the future and a lot more work from multinationals now that the cost base is down

Printing 300 again today is good - need to hold a close above 300 now

GLA

In the past you will see CPI move 10-15% on no news and can back it up for a couple of days.

It is very possible to see it at 325 by close of business tomorrow. No apparent reason, but volume is low and price shoots up.

Shorters will still be hoping for a market tumble based on US overdue readjustment, but CPI is a long way undervalued so no losing money at these rates IMO

Enjoy the bounceback longs - shorts burn

CPI Directors have bought very big in the last few weeks and their price has only slowly moved up - as Blah said, if that is your big investment criteria, large FTSE100 companies are not really your bag!

Hoping here that we keep rising to 11 quid at 1% per day!

GLA

The shorts are high and as @Aim said, usually win with CPI. However, I dont think these shorts are targeting CPI as an over value, they just know that CPI always takes bigger hits when there is a market drop

Dow & NASDAQ are record highs for no reason and are likely to have a downward turn soon. That will usually affect FTSE and CPI will take a hit if that happens

CPI should be 6 quid min IMHO, but it wont get there for at least a year or more and therefore I am always happy to dip in and out with my trading pot.

We could get a breakout if we can hold 2.75 for a couple of days, but with so many Non-CPI factors at play, who knows where we will be, come Friday or Monday.

Im sitting with my small (5k) CPI trading pot ready to spend, although I have similar pot for SAGA and felt there would be a pull back and they are taking off this week. Put 10k into Sage on their pull back and waiting on a much higher return there over 6mths.

Although lots here dont like Aims comments, there is good info there for you all if you want to listen. Where I differ is that I see CPI as being significantly undervalued and any investment at this time will make me money IMO and my long pot is there for decent returns, my fun money is to make 5% as quickly as possible and find the next 5%

If I can make 250 quid on 5k in 2 days, thats me out with the trading pot - doesnt mean I dont have much larger sums invested in these companies for long term and wanting much greater returns.

Not financial advice

I sold all of my trading pot of CPI on Friday at massive 1 quid gain after buying in Thursday as I expected drops today from failed Iran negotiations.

Surprised market hasnt fallen back then I see a new shorter - so Im going to hold by pot ready to buy CPI as I expect it now to fall back a few % over next 2 weeks for no reason other than shorters want to drag it down and can with no expected news for a few months

GLA

@savage my numbers are from the 2025 Financial Statements - Profit before tax was £75M which includes loss making contact centre. So £100M is very reasonable.

If you dont use the adjusted numbers for exits your forward looking analysis is flawed

Cash debt of £140M at year end is tiny for a business with a turnover over £2 Bn (it only equates to 80% of one months Accounts Receivable)

@Savage to say "Calling £9 now and nothing has changed" is just wrong

Whether 9 quid is realistic or not is all opinion, but one thing that is absolute, is that things have changed. Selling the drag on the business in a deal that should allow a new owner to clear decks and become profitable and keeping a part of that is a very good deal for CPI and mainly just increases profit and FCF for the future projections. That is a huge change.

Having a core business that is making £100M per annum with sight to new contracts from safe sources at increasing margins can easily take profitability to £120-150 M which could easily value CPI at £1Bn (circa £9)

IMO this wont happen within 12 mths but could easily happen within 2-3 yrs therefore £5 within 12 months is very achievable and that is close to doubling our money from here in a now safe company with no bad debt risk.

If you want safe with an upside then CPI is that investment now IMO.

This doesn't mean we can't trade some also as MMs manipulate this SP more than any other Im invested in.

These are only my opinions and my personal reasons for investing

Seeing banks and many others rising 10% today, I was hoping for a bit more of a rerate here.

Guess we have to go with slow and steady wins the race

GLA (if any investors actually look at this board!)

Agreed - but even with 100M EBITDA and 70M FCF next year, this rerates to more than double where we are today

Yes - I hit my sell at 12.81 (limit order was 12.78) with a nice little gain in a few days - will wait for the next drop (2 weeks time is my guess!)

just taking 5-10% profits on 5-10k investments on quality investments after a couple of AIM losses

GLA

But volume could come from new ISA limit and take it to 1.25-1.35 then we drift again.

My main holding that Im down on, Im hoping for a sale that will no doubt happen in the future - we just dont know when

DYOR

Little big for deadcat bounce surely?

Whole market up today and after our fall, we have some value to regain - buying small amounts with proceeds from small company gains.

DYOR

I often sell up when the shorts pile in and buy back at a reduced price, but I have not done that recently as I dont want to be out.

4.29% shorts is 5.15M shares - CPI Avg Trade Volume is 720k (today was 500K).

At avg trade volume, they would have to be all buys for more than 7 days of trades. At todays volumes they would be 10 days.

Shorts only make money when they buy at lower than they rented the shares so they need to close sometime.

This is why I have been adding small amounts as I believe this will move quickly within the next 3 months and it may not be on news as the shorters will also be watching each other and looking to get out before others do

1 more trading day of the year and new ISA limits next week is another reason I dont want to be out at the moment.

Been a great day today on many of my other shares with so many FTSE 100 making big moves today

DYOR

With 1 day of trading left in the fiscal year do we think we will get some volume in the next few sessions?

Ive made a lot of money on this share in the past but now sitting on a loss of over half my gains I took - bought a few twice this week but probably to trade for 10% as its so low.

Been reading the boards a lot but just registered to ask the question

GLA