Member Info for OldAlarvian

All good news and sounds in line with plan - but to say Peter has been buying shares, its not been big buys at all - its pocket change - would like to see him invest 100k or so to make it meaningful

If got more buys in for a drop - hopefully MMs will take it down to take them as they have for me the past couple of months - until the seller has gone there is every chance - no chance of tarding this share so every purc hase is one that you are tying capital up for likely couple of years

GLA

Shorts gone, good volume on Friday and the rest of the market buzzing - hoping for a rise to 860

GLA

Are people that misinformed about share options? He needed to exercise those options (40k ish number) and when he exercises them, it is treated as Income and PAYE and NI is payable just like salary.

Therefore he had no cash from this transaction, just approx 21k shares after tax

Nothing to see here -

Good time to load up - charts suggest 860-900 in 1 month (unless bad news somewhere)

Volume is very low again - only real volume has been when Sage were buying back and they did at much higher rates so obviously thought those prices were too low

GLA

Not sure there is an attack - shorts will keep trickling this down IMO - people will sell and stop losses will come in - Im hoping for my 335 buy now!

Hi Sparz - what is the material risk you believe to be here? ARR % is very high and cash conversion also.

Good dividend and decent share buy back are all huge positives.

Changing accounting systems is a massive decision in most companies and although I personally prefer using some of the competitors platforms, but the platform works well and the company is sound

This should be back over 10 quid soon IMHO

Lets hope for great H1 results because the drop on AI was silly!

GLA and DYOR

CPI IFRS debt is not greatly affected by cash borrowings - cash debt is now small.

With FCF, I would hope CPI will increase cash debt and buyback shares for a year or more before even considering dividends

This way, the share price will increase and would allow a raise at a decent level of SP if there were a good strategic acquisition to make.

Recovery IS going great. Still need to trade into the market.

Glad I cancelled my 355 buy, still think my 335 buy will happen within a few weeks. That would mean buying all of my 380ish sell back at 335 if that happens. Thats 13% more shares for the same $$ and when it gets to 405 I will probably sell a load again - not because the recovery isnt good, but just because the SP (IMHO) will not greatly beat 400 on the next attempt (unless its closer to results day).

GLA with whatever strategy you have, long, short or trade - one thing I am confident in though, is that this is way undervalued

DYOR

I've cancelled my 355 buy order as I think that this will get closer to my 335 buy but may do my usual FOMO and buy at 345!

These numbers I expect to be reached within a month - hoping to make 5-10% on Sage then sell those and get 75k worth here again before 1/2 yr results

GLA

A growing number of "bear market signposts" are signaling that the market could be approaching a top and that investors should take profits now before a pullback, according to Bank of America.

Seven of the bank's 10 bear market indicators have been triggered in recent months, strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a recent client note. Five were triggered by April, and two more of those indicators flashed red in May.

With volume at such low levels and the close ownership of so many of these shares, shouldnt ITX be taken private and save the costs of public company?

This will only ever be purchased by the likes of Croda so why be public when nobody trades in it?

Quarterly updates for us all on a zoom call would be fine and we keep our shareholdings as they are.

This will only ever sell at a price John is happy to sell and that is multiples of the current Mkt Cap, so why bother being public?

Volume is very low - price is drifting - the excellent work Sage are doing with AI this should be shooting up not down!

Im now in pretty heavily and seeing 30% returns within 6mths - not many FTSE100 you can say that about!

GLA

Certainly shorts are hedge but against possible US market hit, CPI miss targets or the fact every summer the price drifts with low volume.

With small volume, price drifts. Remember that shorts are paying to rent those shares so need a return.

When I sold 52k worth, i set buys at 355 and 335. Not sure if we will get to 335 but worth a shot as intra day, this share does some silly things!

Im a big believer of under here, but we try and make money in all sorts or ways and the shorts here are rather big.

I predict small volume everywhere for a few months as people put money into way over valued US IPO!

GLA

And a 1M quid sale - this is now far too cheap - buy back is being timed well for LTH

Good luck all

Again possibly a short reducing - MMs will help and volume was very low today so took price down

@Savage_KeyboardR why do you think SP will fall? I think it will simply because of US Markets readjustment but you seem to think its CPI fundamentals - from what has been reported, why do you think SP will fall?

Financial debt at y/e was just £(143.4)M on revenue of £2,312.3M (just 22 days trading) - this is tiny. I would prefer to see a buy back program at these prices rather than a dividend - £50M of shares taken out of freefloat would be nice

Would love to hear your rational for CPI SP drop.

GLA

Volume yesterday suggests a short reduced. Todays volume is tiny so backwards we go.

As S&P 500 continues to break records and several massive IPOs on the cards in US soon, liquidity will be affected. This is the reason shorts are here - nothing to do with CPI fundamentals

Retail traders are buying the top in US - the drop that will happen in US is going to be massive - maybe 25% IMHO. NVIDIA is falling back as retail buyers dry up. 25% of avg volume for NVDA has been traded in first 1hr in US.

Take a look at US charts and the only people saying this will continue are retail punters taken in by hype with zero business fundamentals to support the valuations.

DYOR

I didnt bother reading any of these boards again until end of last year - there was just name calling and silliness.

My new biggest holding (a FTSE100) that Chat Board has barely any posts on it. Some of my others holdings have very little chat so I just never bothered looking in

Anyway, things to do (btw I will be out of RR before 14 quid!) - good weekend all

Im not a shorter and I am not deramping, but I will share some of my analysis.

All the below is subject to a major stock market crash NOT happening (although I think there is a fair chance of that as does Buffet)

DISCLOSED Shorts now at 6.64% now that Citadel has declared after sitting at 0.49%. We do not know how many others are sitting below the threshold.

I strongly believe when CPI hits 6quid (before year end in or by Feb 2027, IMO) then the new target price will be set by many at 12 quid.

Only once have I ever hit the top of a price to sell and it was intraday back in 2021 with a sell at 55p old money in CPI!

I also never manage to buy at the bottom, so don't beat yourselves up about a few %.

I believe that only 1 year in past 4 years has CPI priced moved up between May and 1/2 yr results

For that reason CPI (IMHO) will bounce around for the summer and cause stress and short term highs and lows and everyone on here slagging each off and calling names etc (so mature- not)

I see opportunity in other shares for the next 8 weeks that are also undervalued that I believe will move up over the next 8 weeks.

So I took 52k out of my CPI investment and dumped 40k of it another share.

My hope (everyone has a plan until smashed in the face!) is that that share increases by more than CPI in the next 8 weeks, at which point I will sell and buy CPI. If I see shorts closing sooner, I may jump back quicker (I still have an investment in CPI, btw)

I only have one AIM company investment and that has 80% close holding and SP barely moves - its frustrating but it is one that I think will sell for multiples of its value currently and I keep adding bits of profits from each trade to that company.

My other holdings and trading are FTSE100. Lots of liquidity and much higher values.

In the last 2 yrs, how often do I get it wrong in making money? 35% of the time. Would I have made more money if I had left all my cash and not traded? Depends what investment (RR certainly)

BUT - I cant say I lost money if I sold a chunk yesterday and CPI goes up 10% before I buy back, if I make 15% before buying CPI back - Im still ahead

This is all a game - we dont hold any power against IIs but we do what we can and make our own decisions

Anyway - enough from me and no matter what your plan is, good luck and I hope we all make a few quid

DYOR

Ha yes - but Ive made decent money off CPI over last 5 yrs also - I love trading undervalued shares - I had AIM shares I wish I had left in RR! Had 120 grand in RR at 90p !!