Member Info for Oktane

The incresed volume of trades we have seen below 0.80 suggests there are plenty of interested parties loking to buy here from those cutting their losses or giving up, we could stay in this region until definite news lands to tip the ballance.

It is a very small place, imagine the part of the plane filled with winners on a return flight from Vegas.

from earlier HISand post
Atempted to be buried by our resident spammer doing his best to disrupt any serious discussion, which actually acts to prevent anyone new from considering investing here as clearly not normal, with multi IDs on several boards full time 24/7!

"Rather than trying to remember who got banned and when, perhaps it would be more useful to have a think about how accurate various posters' opinions have been?

I think we can safely say that anyone a more wary persuasion has been proven categorically right to date, whereas those screaming "Strong Buy! Multi-bags imminent! 2p by Xmas!" have equally been proven categorically wrong to date.

And that's because one set of opinions has been based upon verifiable facts and realism and the other on nothing at all, apart from pure self-interest.

That's not to say it's totally impossible yet for ANGS to save itself.., but as every day goes past and as every revised schedule slips by, that looks less and less likely.

So George... how much gas and by when?"

Lidsey fiasco caught me as well, but I took the hit and got out, have been in and out here since.

School of hard knocks has taught me some teams never in fact do win, and following the 'smart' money is not a sufficient condition to stay in, have seen so many huge losses by giant smart investors, there are so many >$1 billion losses stories out there...

I feel your pain, have done it large years ago as well.
Averaging down a looser and selling volatility have killed more traders than everything else combined. It is so very, very hard to add to winners, but that combined with risk limits is where I have won.

Sorry it is so costly, hope you can bounce back either here or elsewhere in 2022.

Only thing mgt here could 'leak' in terms of bad news would be an all too typical error in EA delaying approval, or heaven help us a placing, though I just don't see that at present.

Simple risk management may have lead to some people stop loss level being hit, and the twatter report just delayed the decline. Hopefully we don't get there, but below 0.65 there could be a larger rush for the exits from sellers stopping their losses. If it happens that dip might be one to buy...

"Yes, a large shareholder exiting is feasible. Shorting is not. That is why I said it stinks!."

Yanis, hopefully someone is selling as they have found a better opportunity to invest in, not that they have lost faith in the mgt here.

Most entertaining forum I follow, as a past investor I have to say the multi ID ramping would seriously make a new investor pause before buying.

Bridgedogg, smacks a bit of desperation, feels like someone is stuck long and wrong on a currently loss making position and would love to get out for a break even at say 1.02 if given the chance.

"Berenberg playing their book as ever
Capping 1p levels and dropping it here.
Easy money for them off the weak!
Games"

Why in creation would Bewrenberg pick fleas off a puppy when there is a world full of bulls and bears out there?

Amazing comment above, this is going sidewise until sustained, profitable, on time gas production.

Could be an exit provision, or in any case an OTC hedge can normally be terminated, however the seller of protection in almost all cases will want to receive the NPV of the hedge at the time of termination. A not insifnificant amount of cash in other words.

Players here need to focus on all details of said side track, and past attempts at same, to weigh up the risk/return for their investments.

"They delivered on the £12m debt facility."

£1 investment becoming £12m borrowing is exactly why the market needs to see sustained, profitable gas production before we can properly rerate the share price.

Good news, now management has to deliver for the first time.

Only two large trades so far, both sells at 1.00 is why it is going sidewise.

Good news, now management has to deliver for the first time.

Only two large trades so far, both sells at 1.00 is why it is going sidewise.

BV, if no one made spreads and markets in natural gas no way ANGS would have found a way to hedge some of their exposure. Correlation is a demanding mistress at times, so funding liquidity for hedgers, if it dries up, means no hedge products for real users to lay off market risk.

HITS, the ZH article has 50x more information in it the Bloomberg, though very market specific. There is some crackpot stuff on ZH, but the knowledge and market connections to derivatives and commodities is light years ahead of most the media, usually stories appear first on ZH such as this, then get picked up elsewhere. Suggest you look at the article regarding Chinese real estate there today, very insightful. The Tesla fire stories there are always entertaining imo.

Multiple sources reporting huge problems coming with gas hedges and credit risk. Biggest market is LNG hedges, but the situation is the same across gas markets where prices have spiked +5 Standard deviations recently.

One of the largest gas traders, GUnvir, is reported facing huge hedge margin calls from mostly trading spreads across various gas markets based on correlations which hae held in times of normal volatility, but not today. Further problems are arising from defaults from hedge counterparts that produce or distribute gas.
Free access article here:https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gunvor-getting-flushed-how-natgas-netbacks-are-crushing-secretive-commodity-trader

Therefore we must ask, are there any cash flow implications today from the 70% hedge here at 43p? Any failure to deliver under the terms of the hedge would see a rapid bankruptcy process here. On the other hand, on time successful delivery of expected sustained volumes, a first here, will lead to real profits on the unhedged 30% of production and a rapid share price appreciation. First half of 2022 is when we find out. Good luck all stranded long term holders, I hope everyone get a chance to adjust their exposure to suit their view if we at least get some spike towards 1.50 at some point pre news.

Someone should ask a Q to Angus:

Is the other side of the 70% gas hedge demanding a form of margin payments today?

As the market has moved far past 43p that we hedged at, and they face a huge credit risk if ANGS fails to deliver the promised gas, depending on the details of the hedge the risk to the holder of the 43p hedge has grown massive.

On the sidelines, hope it goes up, with or without me, been solving situations in other markets, this little paddle pool is most entertaininh, recent times mostly come for the chat, unbelievable spin and bull at times, better than TV.

Who would have imagined that trying to rely on wind, sun, and Russian gas would be a bad policy?

Been mostly below 1.00 for two years now, there are a billion shares out there almost all at a loss, fair bit of overhang, to put it mildly, before good sustained profitable gas news here has any legs.

Yanis that hedge conversation is exactly the same as someone saying: I bought shares at 8p when GL and new management took over and now at 0.8p two years later I'd like my money back and cancel the trade...

Credit risk for whoever did the hedge is a very valid issue, for the other side of our hedge, is ANGS good for the settlement sum?

IF ANGS had used a put purchase then IF they produce gas they would enjoy much of the recent huge price increase. We don't know much about the hedge mechanics. All hedges are a compromise, doing no hedging is always either the best or worst outcome, any insurance outcome will fall between these. Clearly if ANGS could have not hedged that would have been best here, but lenders had a big say in this. Big worry is does the hedge give enough protection if gas flow is too low or too delayed, or both. Payments may be due from 43p all the way up even if no gas is produced...