Member Info for okenia

The issue you have here is that the crash from 90p to 3p is only partly the result of poor sentiment in the sector. This share has had a change in the fundamentals over the last year or so (critically the lack of DSO). As it stands this is probably only worth in the 1-2p range and with the rate of cash burn it could well not exist in 18months. In other words, just because it has fallen doesn't mean it will revert to mean and head back to 10-30p on the basis of fundamentals. Sentiment is another thing of course (markets are funny places )

And what by way by fundamentals could possibly justify a return to 10p+? DSO was a duster. 30mt at Binga is laughably small (Jingal want 1Bn tonnes). And don't even start me on that recent trick where the BoD reset the options (if at first you don't succeed change the goalposts). I mean, what is the point of options to reward performance if you can just reset them to a lower level when things go pants?!? And for the record yes I do have a (rapidly shrinking) stake here. Sadly.

Sundance? They have shed loads and almost sold out the other year. Also not clear to me if Jingal want a mine or a resource - ie do they need a producer or a partially-mapped concession that is not even at PEA stage? They are a steel manufacturer after all so want stability of supply of the ore, not necessarily seeking to become a miner per se.

2bt estimate for the entire Cameroon-Congo basin. Not 2bt of the area that WAFM has as concessions! Worth reading the (now out of date) PDF interview that goes with that, where Anton goes on about how crucial DSO is compared to magnetite, how they were parking the Sierra Leone assets (a mere 40-50% Fe!) in favour of the Cameroon assets that were "overshadowing" everything else. Fast forward a year and the internal sites (S Djalom etc) only have about 30% Fe, it's not DSO. And likewise Binga is ~30% Fe Magnetite (and a relatively small asset - 30Mt). That's what I mean about the fundamentals having changed and us needing to assess the value of WAFM based on what we know we now have, as opposed to the aspirations we had 2 years ago. Asterisks are directorstalk dot com http://www.*****************/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/West-African-Minerals-WAFM-Direct-from-Cameroon.pdf

"where it should be". Good point. I remember this spiking to 90p (just looking back, I top-sliced some at 57p). But that was then and this is now, the world moves on. What we need to do is start from scratch and actually work out what this is worth based on numbers and resources and so on. Who wants to start with "guess the PEA"? Angela?

avatar - it's a long document but with loads of information about where Binga and the other WAFM deposits are in Cameroon, etc http://www.westafricanminerals.com/content/projects-investments/cameroon

The only slight fly in the ointment is that Binga isn't a big deposit - 30Mt. The report you cited flangie cites a desire for a 1Bnt mine, ie 30-times bigger than what WAFM have at Binga. --------- Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL) is close to acquiring an iron ore mine in West Africa to secure raw material for its recently commissioned steel plant in Oman and to sell the surplus in the open market. “We are in discussion with a few targets in West African countries like Cameroon, Senegal and Nigeria for an iron ore mine acquisition and hope to clinch a deal in the next three-four months,” a senior company official . Rumours close to the source believe West African Minerals Corporation (WAFM) could be thier target with the value at multiples of WAFM current market cap of £16.5m Wafm are fully funded at at an advanced stage with infrastucture already in place,a realistic value would be nearer £80m. Though the cost of the acquisition would not be “much”, creating infrastructure such as roads and ports while developing the mine would be “higher” and quantifying that would be possible later, he said. “By July-September, we will be able to seal the deal,” the official said, adding that the mine would have at least 1 billion tonnes of reserves. Naveen Jindal-led JSPL recently commissioned a 2-million per annum (mtpa) steel plant in Oman, taking its total capacity to 7 mtpa. It has a 3 mtpa steel plant at Raigarh in Chhattisgarh and a 2 mtpa facility at Angul in Odisha. It generally requires 1.6 million tonnes of iron ore to produce 1 million tonnes of steel. The Oman facility buys the raw material from the open market to run the plant. Operating a plant with raw material purchased from the market leaves a company vulnerable to price vagaries, which can impede growth and affect profitability. “We want to buy a mine so that the plant does not have to face the consequence of fluctuating iron ore prices in the international market. It is very important for us,” he said. Africa has natural resources in abundance. JSPL already has established its presence across South Africa, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana and Mauritania on the continent.

You need to think of the geography here. Inland you've got the big Sundance etc concessions with loads of DSO, but several hundred km of space before you hit a port. Railways etc are needed. Near Kribi (deepwater port) you have some OK-ish deposits but they are very close to the port, including Binga. The WAFM logic was to do both - develop Binga to generate near-term cashflow, do some prospecting inland for big DSO deposits, and use the cashflow from Binga to finance the hunt for the bigger inland deposits. Seems quite a sensible approach IMO. Thus a tie-up with a steel manufacturer so we can get Binga into production would be excellent as it would then bankroll the other activities and we could stop having to do placings at a time when the cost of capital is so low (ie SP is so low that a placing is massively dilutive). Anton has said publicly that they want first-mover advantage, they aim to be the first to produce in the area. IMEC have said the same though so there's a bit of a competition going on! Thus in answer to the question, yes an acquisition (or takeoff agreement) with a steel manufacturer would be massively beneficial for WAFM. All the small explorers are strapped for cash at the moment to fund their activities, and even more so for iron ore due to the depressed ore price. If it happens I may even stop being so grumpy!

Media speculation about Jingal sniffing around WAFM:: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/JSPL-is-set-to-acquire-the-mining-rights-to-the-West-African-Minerals-Corporation-AIM-WAFM-Binga-iron-ore-project-located-approximately-80-kms-from-the-Kribi-deepwater-port-in-southwest-Cameroon-media-reports-said-A-spokesperson-of-the-Delhi-based-company-of-Naveen-Jindal-declined-to-comment/s/via/34672/article/view/p/mid/1/id/156/ "JSPL is set to acquire the mining rights to the West African Minerals Corporation (AIM: WAFM) Binga iron ore project located approximately 80 kms from the Kribi deepwater port in southwest Cameroon, media reports said. A spokesperson of the Delhi based company of Naveen Jindal declined to comment. "We at JSPL do not react to market speculation. As a growing company, we are always on the lookout for organic as well as inorganic opportunities to expand, enhance and add value to our business," said a JSPL spokesperson. "Many steelmakers are considering overseas acquisitions since the last year and half given that global prices are coming down, but domestic prices are going up because of supply situation in India. This provides an opportunity for sourcing raw material and as well as acquisitions," says Kameswara Rao, executive director (energy, utilities & mining) at consulting firm PwC. The Delhi based steelmaker was in the news when it acquired rights to 20billion tonnes of iron ore in Bolivia. But the $2billion project ended in a bitter parting with both parties blaming each other for delays and JSPL dragging the Bolivian government into international arbitration. In the recent past JSPL has intensified its search for steelmaking raw material reserves on the African continent. Other than Cameroon, Jindal Africa also has interest at Melmoth in South Afica, in coal mine in Mozambique and in Botswana. The company's senior management has in the recent past said that it was looking to acquire mineral reserves in Namibia, Gabon, Liberia, and Mauritania among other African nations. While JSPL is close to securing the mineral deposit in Cameroon, Rao pointed out that getting assets in Africa operational has been a challenge because of issues that include delay in decision making, difficulty in financing and logistics concerns."

Yeah, been here since EML days. Had a hefty stake in early days, then watched it change when the plan to get DSO came to naught. Dattels gone , now Mellon gone(ish). Real pity as good country to be in. I've reduced my exposure but still here. Would be very happy to have good excuse to keep myself here! Thus very happy to hear the positive story to offset my Mr Grumpy mode.

I'm very happy to hear the positive case for this share (since I hold some residual stock). Want to try to convince me? I'd be delighted to be able to change my view.

The rumour is they want a mind with at least a billion tonnes of ore. How much have wafm got? Er, nope. Small deposit mediocre grades and no rebound is due for the simple reason the fundamentals have changed. Only kept alive as a salary vehicle for the BoD (who hold most shares)

More like Disappearing Metals these days :) They had a duster with the DSO, and have also lost the "Dattels effect", and now Jim Mellons is stepping away.

We live and learn. No high risk high return investor has a 100% perfect track record, you just have to trim the weeds and water the flowers.

Having dropped from 90p to 4p, you're still in here Top_mav? I have to say that re-setting the options for the BoD to 7p was very annoying. The whole point it to get them to focus on long term performance, re-setting it every year to just above the prevailing SP is a bit rich. However I fear that with >50% of the shares in a small number of hands (=BoD and related trusts) this is being run more as a plaything and salary source for the BoD without any particular focus on other shareholders.

OK who dumped 500k share and caused a 15% drop?!?

I think Jim Mellon is bored too, hence why Brad Mills has now stepped up to take over the reins. They targeted DSO and haven't found it. Instead they have reasonable but not spectacular amounts of mediocre grade stuff that is as common as muck. I'm not sure I see this as warranting a substantial re-rate, unless something amazing happens and they find masses of DSO at Binga by accident. Good idea, didn't pan out, move on people. Brad's got a nice little play mine to keep him occupied in the twilight of his career, but I'm not convinced any of us are going to get rich off it.

2.4m traded. There's still ~ 10m unaccounted for that Panetta don't seem to have picked up, maybe these are now getting picked up. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see some RNSs over the next week as holding thresholds get breached.

Decent volume too - > 1m shares traded. I wonder who is picking them up, Panetta?

From the UK-Cameroon bash the other day http://www.westafricanminerals.com/sites/default/files/WAFM%20UK-Cameroon_Forum_7_May_2014_printversion.pdf