Member Info for okenia

Cash2 - I have a very small stake here but that's more to focus my mind on researching this (amazing how even a small stake does that!). Current worry is that this has spiked on transformational one-off news, but as the herds flee to the next big thing (attention time of toddlers usually) it'll drift back. A key level will be the upcoming placing price - usually you'd expect it to trade just above the placing price as placees flip their stakes for quick 10-20% returns. No proof this will happen, but I suspect the additional sellers that will be generated by the placing will see it depressed for a while round 15p before rebounding once that's completed. That's how it worked at rem anyway, dynamics could be different here. However, a smart move would be to exploit the sp increase and do a placing at a new (higher) price so as to generate mor cash for less dilution - that would give DL more of a war chest. It seems that there's an upcoming meeting to agree this so perhaps it could be revised at that one?

Cash2 ... Sounds like you've been taking this very sensibly. I liked your comment " However, even though I made a decent return a few months back, I lost it all by listening to silly comments on BB's.". That's a good learning outcome in itself - and emphasises that the only person looking after you is you. It's not impolite or rude not to trust anyone else on a BB, it's simply good common sense. Or as they say in Godfather, don't take this personally, this is business :)

Townsg ... I'm conscious as a newcomer here that there are raw wounds from the previous company. What would be good, therefore, is full closure of the past. To me that means a complete removal of all previous Directors, and the paying off of any liabilities. A new name would be essential as you say. You've been in this longer than me so forgive me while I play catch-up. What's your understanding of the issue of liabilities ... are the new plans for Evo sufficient to wipe the slate completely clean? Would appreciate a heads-up from anyone whose been here longer than I .

Cheers CP22. I do my best to stick to facts and let people make their own decisions (although like everyone I can get excited or worried about some things). I get a lot from the boards and glad to give something back. All the best with your investments.

The great thing is that you can practice investing for free. Get a book, write down your buys and sells, and watch the RNS and how the sp reacts. In the meantime keep your actual investments in some low-cost general tracker. Do that for 18 months and you'll learn just as much as if you actually invested, and for free! Then slowly start to become active, if it looks like you have a flair - and if not don't worry, it's not for everyone. (Actually, of you want to plonk your cash somewhere try RCP, capital-preserving multi-asset, I use it as my savings account).

You're purely buying a concept and idea. In fact it's earlier than that, it's pre-idea and purely reputation. You thus need to look at DL's track record in developing cash shells, and go from there. In essence you're giving him money "to do something with", that's about as sophisticated as it can be ATM.

I imagine DL will want to rename EVO at some point to emphasise the fact that this is a clean start. Two questions therefore for the Evo holders who have been here for longer than I. A) what's the situation with debt/liabilities and how much will that cost to wipe the slate clean? B) do we have legacy shareholders who will want to exit from the new Evo (in the same way Evolve and ascot tosh Enterprise had to exit when 3dr morphed into AFRI). Could someone help me with this please? Thanks.

In fact, to put it bluntly the value of Evo is DL's track record and expertise. Whatever he wants to do he will do a placing to raise funds for or get YAGM to do an equity swap (standard practice for his companies at this stage). Typically one of his companies at the next stage (once he's announced what the cunning plan is - which he hasn't yet) would be valued in the £5-10m zone based purely on the business plan and expertise (irrespective of assets/NAV). £1.5m is reasonable for the moment before he announces the plan. Once that happens (and his Tweeting PR machine gets into action) expect a sharp re-rate up to the next level. Assuming he doesn't resign before then (like with Plmo).

4petessake ... true, but you don't value one of these DL rebadged cash shell vehicles based on their NAV/assets. That's a red herring. I fell foul of that error when I got into Afri initially but I understand the process and roadmap better now.

There is one value about a cash shell set up as an investing company that we've not discussed. Which is the AIM rule that a new one has to raise £3m at admission. A re-badging like here bypasses that rule and has a real value. DL wants a new company shell. He won't be able to raise £3m to start a new one but by rebadging Evo he has got it. You have to ascribe some value to that. What will happen next is Evo will make some token investments to fulfil their investing policy. Ignore those, they're there just to meet the rules. Once done the next stage is to do something with Evo - this path had been trodden before with Afri and Rem, so we can predict the path for Evo based on that and invest accordingly.

Hols :)

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-media.asp?shareprice=WAFM&share=west_african

I wonder if the SP drops to 1p they will reset them to 1.5p? (can you tell that little bit of corporate greed annoyed me!??)

yes but that's only for two of the BoD who are stepping down. All the rest of them still have those 7p options (25p options, did I say 25P? no, let's drop them to 7p now because the SP has fallen, ha ha.) Brad Mills, Anton Mauve and a couple of others still have those reset-to-7p options.

I don't see any RNS since that may one where they shamelessly reset the option price to 7p - can you post a link to that info please?

Ooh, I'd missed that story about the options. I'd seen the resetting of the option price (wtf?!?!) and the SP article - are you saying they've revised them since then?

I've been a holder since EML days and my question is why you would buy at 4.35. Binga only has 30Mt of OK-grade common-as-muck magnatite, that's a tiny resource. What sums have you done to suggest 4.35p undervalues the company now that the original plan to find a big inland DSO resource was a duster?

Dead cat bounce? I suspect a big holder has dumped their shares and we're rebounding. Dattels sold up most when he left, wonder if Mellon is selling up to? Guess we'll see if there's a holding RNS. Once that big seller goes then it's bound to have a recoil.

They are targeting 4Mt a year at an iron ore price of $100 and a 30% margin after opex. Let's say that is $30/tonne netback, $120m per annum for ten years (stated mine life). Basic NPV8 (ignoring whatever capex they need) would be ~ $800m Capex is relatively low with 2 year payback (so < $200m) and if that's all dumped in Year 1 with no production until Year 2 you're still looking at a basic NPV8 of around $500m There's 376m shares in issue so that's around $1.30 per share. Of course a lot of this cashflow will be ploughed into developing the hinterland deposits.

I also think you have a major shareholder throwing in the towel (my guess Mellon since he's stood down from his role on the board). There was a whopping £48k sell today, if that continues expect to see 2p rather quickly! Look for a holding RNS soon?