Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi Moody

Obliged - we would be in the FTSE 350

Hi Strangled

I tend to stay on the open BB, quite like the debate like with Ste yesterday / Golden / Steve whoever and be challenged on the numbers and we keep it respectful.
Data over dogma stuff … that cuts both ways btw long or short position

It’s hard enough for little PI’s to make money, the II’s play a different game, but sharing data / thesis without losing the floor and we all benefit

Few thoughts for us little PI’s to think about to make some $$

Come April THG will start filing for full listing for September as the Golden Share expires

At that point index funds will require 5% of THG Shares -70M

By coincidence the total Shorts are believed to be 70M

So we get this index driven pressure on the offer which puts pressure on the Shorts and it creates a situation of 140M shares required ( 10%) to square

Let’s assume THG pull off the Ingenuity Whale or they don’t and mothball Ingenuity as a 3rd party service and they just use for their own benefit, either the share price goes up as our FCF is positive - no capex to fund SaaS to keep the big Whales happy

Us little PI’s can’t lose, it’s either a re rate via Ingenuity valued at something - personally I think it’s a pro rata rating to Ocado like for like on
GMV -am not sure on EBITA will do it - or it’s as above and we then have an extra £100M FCF positive to invest in the £2B Rev a year divisions generating north of 7% EBITA

THG are throwing off the cash at this point

IF and it’s not for certain Moulding does an equity deal then all bets off -it all just happens in a blink of an eye - but regardless the buying pressure on this share will start building up, we don’t require new institutional investors who are into fundamentals, the Index and Shorts carry the water for us

When will the II Shorts head for the door? It’s already started

It’s been a gift picking up these shares sub 50p, ride out the upside now , forget the penny movements - leave that for the traders

If anything the other II shorts will be looking over their shoulder tonight

Who will be last man standing

My thoughts, same to you Ste

Yeah £numbers spot on Ste

Is he a fool or are his property interests / personal debt against same skewing his thought process ?

He’s a smart boy, he’s got( had ) a vision for Ingenuity but he needs to pull off a monster deal to save now as a 3rd party supplier

Otherwise it’s something THG do to handle it’s products from its own businesses and THG doesn’t need the big massive fulfilment centres scattered around the globe, we can downsize and use smaller units - barring in acting break clauses in the leases or sub letting space if need be

Ste your on it, agree your points below

Let’s see if he pulls it off, as I say I wouldn’t bet against him

HH

Ingenuity is taking the oxygen out the room so to speak

Nutrition on £700M Rev is knocking out £105M EBITA
maybe more as margin could be 55% plus with whey prices today

Beauty is still generating cash

This is the issue … put aside On demand etc they are going
Ingenuity is stopping Nutrition/ Beauty reinvesting their FCF

It’s sucking every dime from the profitable side

We could pay the £20M rent and shut ingenuity down
repay debt and invest in the profitable businesses

Moulding owns the Ingenuity buildings, much better for him if Ingenuity gets this next £100M slug, he wouldn’t want a load of VP buildings with £20M coupon but a lease running down, it could trigger his covenants on his loans - we don’t know but it’s in his interest to punt another £100M on something that currently does us £2M a year EBITA

Hi Golden
All about Ingenuity sucking the cash for time being
Let’s see what happens with the £1B whales and does he sell a stake in beauty ?

Ste been a good debate

Last chance saloon is good Synonym to describe where Moulding is career wise as a publicly quoted CEO

Ste’s point on Ian Mc is on the money

He needs to go, as previously mentioned he’s only still on the BoD for reasons we don’t know / understand but he should be removed

The trading that was going on via the Form 8 declarations was spiv like from certain fractions of the insiders - Ste’s point is valid

THG doesn’t need fresh cash - we have covered this
Put aside the dilution on moulding it ain’t happening

The next stage is do they or don’t they drop £100M into the Ingenuity SaaS platform ?

This is free cash from the £2B profitable divisions

That’s why there is a slim chance he sells a stake in Beauty, he clears his debt and with the £1B ( £1.2B with current Rev ) he can justify the £100M spend
It makes sense but can he pull it off ? Gut feel this is the delay being the DD not a supply contract - note I could be wrong but equity DD always over runs a supply contract time wise, the shareholder agreement will be back and forth

Moulding is a top entrepreneur we have to give him that - I respect him for that

His downside … he’s dodgy and doesn’t always follow through with what he says, that’s fine in the private sector but not in the public markets
Think he just has that trait in his make up

Hi Moni

Tbf I don’t disagree with a lot of what Ste says once he opens up - he knows his numbers, he’s a lot smarter than his shorting posts indicate at times

No one can defend the 95% fall in the share price

However at 50p this is an interesting risk / reward bet

£2B of Rev @ 7% is decent return

We just need to get an angle on the £1B / timeframe / capex spend on SaaS

No one knows but if he pulls off an equity as well it will be brutal if your short - Risky trade at 50p

Ste, got to be careful shorting at these levels
Intra day RNS - wouldn’t put it past Moulding
Or Monday first thing

Risk/ reward but it could be painful for a few pennies

Re the £1.70
Was a non offer backed by debt, never going to happen

Agree point about the NED, how he is still there I have no idea other than he knows where the skeletons are buried ? What did Moulding know not know ?
How secure was the Chinese wall between him and his bestie Ian Mc ?

The Candyman was just on an ego trip

Ste, think we are both close on the numbers

Agree on capex spend breakdown below

They don’t need the capex levels without Ingenuity, if they don’t land the £1B or something big then Moulding can’t justify the £100M into SaaS 2023
Ingenuity is over as a concept - it’s generating £2M EBITA that’s it at the moment

Hence at 50p it’s a steal and it’s sensible to just sit tight, who knows if an intra day comes / Monday morning RNS lands, but being out of the stock or worse being short and you get ripped apart especially if he pulls off an equity deal, not worth it for a couple of pence upside

No £1B Whale and we have a nice business doing £2B and Moulding will go later in the year / index funds buy in as fully listed

It’s win win for us little guys - ovs for the traders they are chasing the pennies so good luck to them

Intra day RNS Ste … contracts don’t always get signed off over night

It why we have only moved pennies this week up/ down 50 to 55p, the market knows something is coming

Hi Ste
Good debate

Don’t disagree with your gist below, Moulding has to improve THG performance

Looking at the data it’s early shoots but it’s moving right direction

If they don’t land the £1B then Ingenuity doesn’t justify the £100M Sass investment, that will be the final nail into Moulding - I think they will pull in and we will see a rerate, but if we don’t we know they will be focusing on the £2B core businesses which making decent profit / generating FCF