Member Info for Okehurst1

Suggest our new shareholders will now organise the existing II’s - a follow on from THG BoD being in Therapy with them last year

Iain Mc to resign - Red line stuff he has to go after the debacle with him bidding for the business but he knew as a director the business couldn’t afford the debt

Date of full listing - again red line has to happen

At this point we don’t need new II’s or other activists but others will jump on board below the 2.99% knowing the Shorts are finished as the try and get out before the Index funds get in

It’s then going to be down to Ingenuity nicking the free cash ,year in year out but only generating £2M EBITA and Moulding wants to sink another £100M a year into SaaS

It’s further complicated because it’s in his interest for ingenuity to have the free cash he needs this business to succeed, he’s nicking £20M a year in rent for himself from ingenuity renting his buildings

The health club and hotels doing the same are just symbolic of the overall arrangement

Fun time for us little PI’s who are loaded up Long under 50p, sit back and enjoy the ride - we couldn’t have done it without the Shorts

The Shorts are well and truly stuffed at THG, they need to get out asap

Citadel did well bailing first must have just been luck ?

Think we can say at the minimum short term THG will
announce full steam ahead to a full listing

As touched on the weekend, that’s 5% equity required by the index funds, the shorts have the same ( estimated may be more)

We are talking 140M shares when 1M more buys can move this share 5% to 10% in a day

Plus we will have others jumping on board for the free ride

Blue days are comin

‘British boardrooms have been warned to brace for a further wave of investor activism after a record number of new campaigns at European companies propelled global activity by corporate raiders to its highest level since 2018

. Europe, including Britain, is proving to be an increasingly attractive hunting ground for corporate raiders, with 60 new campaigns launched in 2022, the most ever for the region in a single year. The UK remained the European market of choice for activists and accounted for 38 per cent of targets during the year.

Activist shareholders are among the most feared players in stock markets. They focus on companies that they believe are undervalued and try to generate investment returns by building stakes and then agitating for a change of strategy or a sale.

Their campaigns typically begin behind closed doors but they often go public with their demands as a way of putting pressure on the management teams of the businesses that they have targeted.

While activism typically is pursued by specialist hedge funds, other types of investment firms, including mainstream fund management houses, are adopting similar strategies to boost returns, Lazard has found.

Thomas said: “Activism is not just for activists any more. It’s a tactic that all kinds of shareholders are using.”

Another emerging trend that Lazard has identified in Europe is “swarming”, which is when more than one shareholder starts agitating for change at a company. It said that last year swarming activity had increased in frequency, had involved larger groups of shareholders and had targeted larger companies’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/1caeccc4-9777-11ed-a130-baced48eb788?shareToken=285bce6772f848b1d4e9b1c6e863a225

I think the Shorts are going to get toasted here, bloodbath day coming

# knows

Hosia

Know it’s tricky on a BB to take stuff face value but I think you know my posts / conversation / history

Yeah he was heading up, then left quickly - around the time when IR was not getting back to us? We had a gap for a few weeks
It’s common knowledge in the City

John Goold what he’s doing with this one

He was head of THG IR up until late Autumn 2022 - did 6 months ish

Knows the business well

These boys knew exactly where their £150k was going

Would these guys be bothered punting £150k each in such a public way ? To make maybe £450K profit, thinking it through?

It’s big money to us civilians but it’s nothing to them but they could raise the funds for a strike and back to back with an asset sale say of Nutrition or Beauty ?

Like the Morrisons deal - Sir Terry Leahy also a long time shareholder of THG who has seen his equity value fall 95%

Access a ‘ bridge ‘
Aquire THG
Asset sale to pay off debt

Be left with one of the divisions

That £150k stake is then worth serious money

Am with you HH

The ‘ 25’ have big money/ experience as Capital allocators, not saying they will fund a take out, more use their collective contacts to build an informal concert party - until it becomes formal

Get the II’s on Board , push Allen, Ian Mc out first, push Moulding on why all the FCF gets pumped into Ingenuity and come up with an alternative solution, if no solution then strike, push for Moulding off the BoD

Maybe a Qatar / other funded MBO or more likely Moulding pulls a big rabbit out the hat with an equity sale alongside £B GMV

Hats off to him if does another SoftBank

Goldman
Just can’t see an MBO unless it’s cash funded

THG couldn’t fund / Banks won’t release covenant - there will be a covenant on taking on more debt, it’s would be a serious amount
We have no FCF as it stands today, I can’t see more than £50M FCF in 2024 at best

It would need Qatar to stand the lot, maybe they will but it’s a big jump from here to get long term II’s to take it

Can’t see how a leveraged MBO works for the Company ?

We already have at best neutral FCF , Ingenuity needs serious $
The 2 core business are now starved of cash for investment and this shows up in the growth numbers ? Beauty is falling behind, Nutrition is a gem but all it’s cash goes to Ingenuity - SaaS this year

Ingenuity generates 1% on its GMV

No way can THG take on serious debt to buy out non insiders
Plus the Banks / Bondholders will want protection, put aside suppliers etc
and same time fund ingenuity after paying interest in the leveraged debt

It won’t happen unless Qatar fund the lot, not saying they won’t but it’s a big ask

There is nothing stopping an EGM to kick him off the BoD
in the meantime

He can’t stop any transactions at subsidiary level only the Golden Share at Holding Co

He has no Golden Share at an EGM

That would keep the masses happy ?

Shorts are done at that point, share price rockets as they chase the Offer in advance the index funds ?

Takes the heat off Moulding?

It would be a smart move

He’s back :-)

‘ they are not alone ‘

https://twitter.com/thecityspy/status/1620445341802983424?s=42&t=8l_f7B9pZzsBR-syOQCHXg

Think we can say after today the Shorts are now on notice

Think we may well see some new large single line new investors sub 3% on the next shareholder print

We all know this is a SOTP play

Either way we are not going backwards now and the Shorts have something to think about - good day for us Longs

Moulding has a battle on his hands

He needs to pivot on Ingenuity or pull in the £1B and explain the margins (1% GMV ) and justify another £100M going to capex

Ste

Think your correct

Who knows Ste ?

Ducks look like they are being lined up

Kelso will orchestrate the move, think that’s a given but they will get the II’ on board first - guess they already have a fair chunk to attract the 25 ‘ names’

It was that bad last year THG and it’s II investors were in therapy together :-)

Says it all