Member Info for Okehurst1

I have no shares in Kelso but I welcome their involvement

My main concern is all the FCF going into Ingenuity, there may be value there, just don’t want THG to fund the next stage
Would like to see us repay debt - £40M a year on paper over and above the £40M from disposals this year
Balance into Nutrition / Beauty

Hope the BoD and II’s find a compromise

If the 25 all bought £1M shares each we wouldn’t know straight out - unless THG a start throwing out beneficial owner notices
They would then be classed as a concert party by the company
Although I would argue they already are by default

Not a big issue, point being they may already own 5% plus between them but we don’t know

Ditto they may have ‘ joined ‘ unofficially with II’s to become official- once a concert party becomes an issue

Gut feel they may have already via John dealing with the II’s last year, this spurred the 25 to fund the shell

Bit of a minefield and am sure Lord Allen wants to avoid this type of corporate warfare

Agree Hosia

Just the funding side, I may be wrong but that’s the area John will focus on
get Ingenuity separate funding ,it’s big SaaS bet on the platform

Nutrition and Beauty are good , they generate serious relative cash - they just don’t enjoy reinvesting it into their divisions, above sorted and they do.

John had raised £5B for deals ,put aside the 25 equity partners within Kelso
some smart boys in this crew, they have a plan but we just don’t know it yet.

Ste.

All going the right way for us longs - another blue day

Macro tail winds on our side - market wise looking 18 months ahead

Activist fund working with II’s now doing the heavy lifting for us PI’s

Full listing application due to be filed , Index funds join the party ,Iain Mc targeted to be ousted ,Golden Share expiring 7 months away

£2B of sales at 8% EBITA

Loss making business to be closed down

Only issue - other than Moulding - Ingenuity capex £100M a year
that’s one am hoping John Goold / II’s can nail, come up with another route to fund
if they can reach a compromise on this issue they unlock the value in Nutrition / Beauty, it’s key.

Hopefully everyone can see sense.

Nb I’ve stripped out Ingenuity Rev (GMV 1%) in at £200M last years top line revenue
It’s pointless including in terms of EBITA

Hosia

Citi say they have been guided as below

Nutrition heading to a whopping 60% gross profit and 15% EBITA
Beauty 7%

Reckon we are close to £2B @ 8% blended
THG say medium term 9%

Funding the losses from On Demand drag down the headline plus the restructuring costs … to get to the £130M

Looks good EBITA wise once On Demand / Other fully restructured

S/B your spot on

John was brought in by MM as he has experience dealing with II’s, he was only there a relatively short period of time but now knows the business /model
Put aside he’s a finance man (£5B of deals to his belt ) he’s well connected

He knows what we all know, Ingenuity as a business has not worked out and requires to be split away and if there is a model there then fund it separately

The 2 core business are decent, you can see that from the numbers / cash generation but we won’t see any unlocking of value as all the cash they generate is going to Ingenuity generating 1% EBITA on £200M last year

Ditto On Demand / Other … £400M Rev losing £20M a year
but THG are now dealing with but it’s going to cost on the restructuring line, all
all funded by Nutrition (mainly ) and Beauty

We don’t know the full plans of the quoted activist group but we can guess they have gamed this out and will RNS how it’s going as and when and especially if THG BoD don’t engage

Had THG been fully listed we would have been the worst performing stock in FTSE 350
2022

ASOS got that badge by a technicality

No wonder the II’s are angry, the non Bid was a shambles and put aside players in the Bid where trading the shares both ways - still don’t understand how that’s legal ?

It was post the non Bid off our non exec director Iain Mc

It was disclosed last week in the media about the arbitration - not just THG others were named

The ‘ bid’ couldn’t be actioned because of fiduciary reasons, no way could THG carry the debt they don’t have the FCF due to capex into Ingenuity

Crowman

I am critical of Moulding as a CEO of a public company he was out of order ( again) with his guidance, -big lesson learnt- but it’s galvanised the II’s and John got his shell away on the back of the last RNS

I had no idea GMV was 1% Ingenuity - don’t think any of us did
Why invest £100M a year on Capex for that division, it’s Mouldings £20M rent and ego driving that one, all at the expense of Nutrition and Beauty

Facts now, we have an Activist Group run by a seasoned pro who knows the business from the inside and knows the II’s , he’s backed by serious players and Moulding has then on his tail as his Golden Share expires

Changes are coming, good money to be made Long on THG and am sure trading but it the days of Red after Red are over, the market in THG has swung the other way

The activists will use their RNS’s to get their views across

Was some RNS off them the other day

THG a was a trading stock up until this week, it’s becoming a wee bit trickier now.

Numerous RNS’s will see this move up sharply

Hi S/B sorry late reply

John was THG IR for the II’s for 6 months last year, dealing with the arbitration - between the II’s and the Chairman -remember that one from last week ?

He’s gone off and set up his shell with 25 high net worth capital allocators - game keeper / poacher stuff now, best not forget he’s a smart boy with years of experience raising funds (£5B) and his contact list is extensive

He personally knows all the II’s in THG, same time just how angry they are with Moulding

Demands will have gone on to the Chairman

If they are not met I guess we will start to see fireworks

It’s all building up and in motion

Suggest the poster ‘New’ knows more detail but can’t say

Iain Mc to resign / announce full listing will be top of the list I think.

Then onto the heavy stuff

They have guided the market but not us PI’s
We just didn’t get on the call it was 1 on 1 stuff
Citi report / others similar

Gist

£120M to £131M EBITA
FCF minus £10M to Neutral
(SaaS ) Capex £90M to £100M on Ingenuity to service the requirements of Whales
£20M net net savings from last year (£100M was Moulding usual )

On demand / loss making side going, restructuring costs

GMV 1%
Ingenuity Commerce didn’t work out

Do agree, good money to be made once the 70% get rid of Moulding

Think we can all agree that’s in traction now

Ste, good honest post Sir.
Good luck with your trading strategy

One thought

Qatar boys will be looking at all this and thinking do they want to fund ( mad) Moulding or join with the II’s / serious capital allocators and de risk / make $$
It’s a no brainer to me

It’s just when do the 70% strike ?

Iain Mc off the BoD first - he has to go

Does Allen go with the majority at that point and Moulding is ousted ?
Think the writing on the wall once Iain Mc booted out

Ste

It doesn’t matter, in fact it helps us little PI’s - more the merrier from Moulding

Some serious players getting involved now, they have ‘ joined’ with the II Longs

Sit back, enjoy the ride, if you’re into taking the pennies here and there that’s fine but trend is up as the battle of control between Mad Moulding (23%) vs the 70% plays out

Only going to be one winner from above

Heading that way Moni

The full listing is a big one, low hanging fruit for the BoD to action
we don’t have the volume of free floating stock to take up the slack of the Index funds

Share price will move up - as discussed previously

Good post Onsolid

We know none of us little PI’s can move the share price

The market makers have orders on the offer, yesterday was them marking down and nicking what they could off the day traders

Sell on this morning to meet their orders and up we go

The big boys have a game plan, this one going one way .. up

Makes no difference if your Long and not trading the pennies if it closed 63p or 58p