Member Info for Okehurst1

Good post Licker

Re Moulding £800M bonus, trivia point but interesting

Perversely Moulding would have paid 45% income tax on the full amount - HMRC wouldn’t let all that to be CGT, remember he had loans he took out and then restructured property as he scrambled for cash
Charitable donations of shares help

Point being Moulding must have thought the £360M income tax bill was worth it at the time, put it this way he had to make £700M pay 45% to pay the £360M tax bill on a bonus of £800M that he didn’t/ couldn’t sell that dropped 95% in value

Am not too sure he thought through the risk/ reward cash problem

He does have an £800M free ride on CGT though IF he makes a capital gain, that aligns him to us shareholders

Agree Holy, interesting times ahead

He has raised £5B in his time at Zeus, knows how the market / City works

The main point for us little PI’s, the cycle has moved 180 degrees, macro and micro on our side alongside Activists, we know there is good value within THG, hopefully it now gets unlocked and we can make money - the reason we are here

Hi Canary, it’s a known fact in the City, would like to add more/ source but I can’t

Nb You know my posting history, I tend to focus on data / £numbers etc not dogma
I did get it wrong getting caught out with On Demand losing £20M though

Yeah John is game keeper turned poacher

Goold has spent several months last year speaking with the II’s on behalf of THG, he was paid by THG to do that job - put aside he is a City man (Zeus ) and will know the funds personally

The II’s are not happy with Moulding, the share is down 90% plus and was the worse performer in the FT350 companies on the market 2022 , it’s been a disaster as an investment for the II’s, no love lost between them and Moulding.
This was evident that THG and II’s actually went into Therapy last year

Goold has seized the opportunity, probably encouraged by the II’s that they will support him, the £150k -whatever - that each of the 25 put into the activist shell shows they are in unison as well and have a game plan

We don’t know what that is yet but we can guess with the Golden Share going they will make a move with the II’s if there is no compromise from the THG BoD

Personally I think common sense will prevail and Moulding gets his wings clipped, vanity projects out, capex budgets scrutinised, focus on shareholder value, it’s not difficult

Goldman fair points

Re Activist groups buying in as we head higher

I may be wrong but I think the time to strike was when Goold pressed the button , I wouldn’t be surprised that many on that list have bought shares directly in THG
John Goold by default has positioned himself as the II’s spokesperson.

Suggest we don’t have the free float stock for an activist to load up maybe 5% to 10%
plus once the index funds start buying this share which they have to this year, coupled with the shorts having to bail, the liquidity squeeze will be huge.

We will just have the reverse loop as to what has happened the last 18 months with this share, formulaic buying models like ETF’s/ Index funds ( auto trading ) do all our heavy lifting on the back of our resident activism fund acting for the II’s curbing the Moulding excesses/ they unlock shareholder value

Us PI’s ride on their tails as the market looks ahead 9 to 18 months and let’s not forget our core business is generating £2B at a decent margin, the Shorts have had there day as a force with this share, they have had a good run now it’s time to be Long THG.

We’ve got the macro tailwind

The Micro, whey 50% down, Core business’s churning cash, £600M cash in hand
Golden share expiring alongside FTSE 350 index funds and to top it we have our very own dedicated activist fund of 25 capital allocators and headed up by top a Rain Maker
We just need Ingenuity sorted in terms of financing and use the FCF to repay debt / reinvest in core … and get rid of Iain Mc off the BoD he shouldn’t there it’s poor governance and makes Lord Allen look weak

It’s been a good week

Speculating but is it market makers message to each other -RNS loaded / coming

Some use 1 share buy trade - grey art stuff

You bet Ste :-)

Let’s hope old McDonald has been shown the door as a starter for 10

Good to share news / data Ste
Helps us all whatever side of the trade

Hard enough as it is for us little guys

Fair doos Ste

Wouldn’t want to be out of this over the weekend Ste :-)

That’s current Hosia

I would just focus on top line Nutrition - discount Iceland deal etc for this exercise

3 to 5% growth that’s it ….
15% EBITA

Less 1% GMV Ebita to ingenuity ? Not sure what that takes off the 15% as higher than 1% at gross level

What would Nutrition be worth if it enjoyed £100M a year being invested ?

The £100M SaaS is on the platform for the Whales

# $150M EBITA

Attractive numbers for an international buyer

H1 2022 Nutrition bore the brunt of Whey at €1400

THG buys spot 3 months

Historically Nutrition at 47% gross now touching 60%
equates to 15% EBITA

Beauty is 7% EBITA

Where Moulding gets his 9% although he’s quoting that on total revenue / comes across that that way, I would work on the £2B and put your margin on that
8% to 9% is my take

What a gem Nutrition is? Closing in on $1B a year and £150M EBITA

HH … keep them coming :-)

It’s fine line for us longs / LTH ( ish ) holders

He sells a piece of beauty / funds Ingenuity / GMV with core is £3.2B / the Core keeps its £FCF moving forward / repay group debt maybe as part of the equity disposal
and we get Ingenuity having a like for like valuation -to a point a based on GMV to that of Ocado and we enjoy a market to market value on Beauty and Nutrition may get same ( value )

I’ve not crunched Ocado yet to measure like for like GMV but IF a deal comes off it’s worthy of the time, there are some differences in the two models but they are close

Not sure which poster said that Blert but that’s not the case - I read someone allude to

The activist fund will be independent of the BoD but pressure on them

Moulding has a problem convincing the BoD to invest the £100M into SaaS
Guess that’s where he is today

He can’t move until he lands the big whales otherwise it’s pointless investing the £100M .. catch 22

He also now has the II’s on his back headed up by activist fund, they will pushing the Chairman and so on ..

Can he pull the $$ from somewhere else ? Maybe?

S/B
Gut feel they ain’t signed off the big ticket contracts (£1B)
It’s material information as it would be worth almost 50% of turnover the way they report - assume on demand is going