Member Info for Okehurst1

Boom,

No idea on the disposal value but if they could give the lot away for £1 and have no restructuring costs that would be ideal from clarity on EBITA forecasts as we can work out how much profit THG will make - obviously they can’t do that and there will be profit centres within the £400M they want to retain

Would take this mornings RNS as a positive that they are on with the task in hand

Boom
I think he’s been tasked with restructuring / disposals of the businesses that make up On Demand/ Other

Stripping out the losses from the £400M a year revenue they collectively generate

He kept a ‘title’…. He’s now COO

Makes sense, he’s the best man for this role - restructuring

Steve

I suggest he has been given the role of restructuring
On Demand & Other - £400M of revenue and we know losing at least £20M a year
it could be £30M if they come in bottom end for 2022

If that is Johns role and not group COO - he got the title not the full role - suggest in this case he is the ideal candidate, he knows this group of business’s very well and Moulding trusts him, todays RNS makes sense

The sooner we get shut of the loss making divisions the better, it’s costing minimum £1.6M a month at best according to last weeks RNS

As Steve says below

He didn’t perform at Ingenuity
Finance

He now gets the Chief of Operations role

It’s like find a job week for John

The man is out of his depth, this is where Lord Allen should dig in, bring in an expert COO not an ex accountant, like what they did bringing in the CEO of Ingenuity

Obviously Moulding is being loyal to him but think an opportunity missed to bring in a quality COO with experience it’s whole different role to accountancy

Lord Allen is alive and well

Good job we have Lord Lucan Allen fighting in our corner

Another profit warning from THG last week confirmed that, after years of growth and acquisitions, the need for a turnround at the ecommerce business is “apparent”, Numis has decided.

Numis, one of eight banks that helped to float the business, formerly known as The Hut Group, in 2020, laid out plenty of reasons why clients should sell the shares. As well as worries that margins will be harder to recover and other balance sheet concerns, another gripe for the analysts is Ingenuity, THG’s technology logistics business that helps other companies to sell online. Ingenuity has a lot to prove as a concept, let alone as a viable business, Simon Bowler, of Numis, argued, adding that it may be more of a “distraction than a valuable part of the business”.

The company blamed a slowdown in quarterly sales for its fourth profit alert in 12 months. It had hoped to generate profits of up to £130 million, but now believes that between £70 million and £80 million is more realistic. After falling by more than 3 per cent during trading, the shares closed flat at 54½p last night — a far cry from the 500p at which the company was floated in September 2020.

Hi Crowman

I took the October RNS at face value, in hindsight that was a mistake and lesson learnt.The THG BoD act like a poorly governed AIM listed company, think that’s fair to say especially after last week - disappointed with the Chair as well

But I do think there is value here at these levels

Take on board your other points as well

Worth checking out what the role of a non exec actually is ?

How Iain Mc is still in a job is beyond me ? Other than being Mouldings bestie ?

Not even worth debating the Matts other ‘ friend ‘ the Candyman, he was just on an ego trip be that buying Chelsea or whoever …

It’s why the £1.70 was a non bid

There is no MBO comimg Steve not without Qatar funding it via equity and paying a good premium, not going to happen with taking on the debt as well

https://www.cipd.co.uk/knowledge/strategy/governance/non-executive-directors-factsheet

Golden , 100% re Iain Mc

FFO
I think you are correct in your definition what is hostile what it unsolicited in this instance - although it makes no difference neither could have happened be that because of the golden share or fiduciary duties

Re the non bid £1.70 from Mouldings bestie Iain Mc and the Candyman

If they were hostile bids how come Iain Mc is still a director of THG ? Couldn’t have been that hostile?

THG couldn’t carry the £Billions of debt for a leveraged buy out, surely a main board THG Director could see that ? There was £50M FCF H2 but maybe £150M negative cash flow over 2022?
The only people who made money on that trade was the insiders who were shorting THG at £1.50 and we saw plenty of that because of the Form 8’s

Nice find B/fern

So Mirakl are rainmakers, they put the deals together

Can see why Boots want Ingenuity link up at same time grab the prime on line THG Beauty web sites for its platform, makes perfect sense
Throw in the global Ingenuity infrastructure… its compelling

THG beauty wins same time, it’s a clever partnership if it’s the end game

They are a consultancy?
They don’t have infrastructure ?

3 men and a van stuff :-)

Yup .. impressive

Tbf 2Phevs you called all the stuff below as you said ,respect
I take note of your comments

Thanks for sharing your info past and present.

They tell us £1B GMV is on its way, let’s assume they are correct - Moulding has a poor track record for delivering what he says

If it was an equity deal then THG Beauty are going to have to pay the market rate to Ingenuity - it won’t be ‘ free’ so to speak
Put aside Beauty won’t be dropping its free cash to ingenuity post event
Assume Nutrition sets up its own contract with Ingenuity

Ingenuity than has £3.2B GMV and between £32M EBITA and double that some posters say
Personally I think it’s £32M (1% of gross )hope am wrong but it’s still decent with £14B GMV capacity to sell ?

At that point think it’s fair to say the £3.2B GMV could then be measured vs OCADO performance, it will be an interesting exercise as Ingenuity currently valued at £zero and Ocado at £Billions

The move above would be a touch of Alchemy by Moulding, makes so much sense

Moulding is a seasoned deal maker, a Boots style deal like Steve lays out below would be impressive, the infrastructure/ capacity is all in place and we know Boots are looking to expand their On lIne channels
In
The ability at that point - depending on the £amount received - to pay off debt of £160M and have capital to fund capex of Ingenuity expansion would rerate the shares
The market will quickly work out what Ingenuity is worth fully loaded £16B ish GMV at maybe £160M EBITA plus vs Ocado model

Throw in Nutrition can then reinvest its own FCF and ditto Beauty, they rerate internally

In a backhanded way Boots also enjoy benefits of their own capital buying a stake in THG Beauty via Ingenuity footprint expanding using the same

If Moulding can pull this off that is …

HH, they must have signed HOT’s, their Broker/lawyer wouldn’t let them add to the RNS, it’s pretty black and white stuff like this with quoted PLC’s

Especially this one being a big print - £1B

The way THG report their numbers it’s highly material increase in the top line