RE: Fill your boots3 Oct 2025 16:26
DNO and Genel have not fully re-entered the new Baghdad–Erbil export framework, leaving Kurdistan’s flows below potential. Both firms continue producing but are diverting much of their crude into the local market rather than nominating volumes to SOMO for pipeline export. Output is being throttled (some wells left under-utilized, drilling programs paused, and operational ramp-ups on hold) a deliberate tactic to preserve leverage. Their arrears, estimated near a billion dollars, remain unpaid, and the new contract terms cap returns at a flat per-barrel service fee, far below the profit-oil model they previously operated under. With the export agreement only running on 30-day renewals through year-end, DNO and Genel are signaling they won’t sink fresh capital or restore plateau volumes until arrears and terms are resolved. The net effect is that Ceyhan flows are restarting at ~180-190 kbpd instead of approaching the 400+ kbpd capacity, highlighting that without these two operators’ full participation, northern exports will remain constrained and the political settlement fragile.