Member Info for oiluser

Redhead

Any analysis to prove your theory the "knives are out" for TLW

I dont own any "hmmm", who are they?

I dont compare them unless on 3 month trend, also use Enquest and cairn for same purpose.

Considering that unhedged 30kbod is now earning $150k more per day than this time last week it's a bit of a joke, but if its allowing some short positions an out it must be ok. That's a little over a million per week in income.

Like I said, 900million was for 100million cash up front, 50 at fid and 50 at initial start up all of which was subject to CGT in Uganda, 700million was towards costs to first oil also subject to CGT as it was being deemed profit. The project if it ever gets sanctioned will be massive and 700million -- not enough to cover tlw 11% position, so the cash out deal looks ok to me as 1) tlw is cash strapped and under pressure to reduce debt, and 2) uganda conditions change with every election making the project very risky. Tlw should have got out sooner in my opinion as no small/midcap e & p can handle mega projects of this magnitude. If you ask me I think tlw forgot who they were and got to thinking they could develop large mega projects which they are crap at based on issues with jubilee. Most majors fk projects up but shear scale wins through in the end. And here's the clincher, because they lost their focus their exploration business has suffered, recently they have gone from top to near bottom on drill bit success. Maybe because of not paying to have the right teams in place for both highly specific activities.

My opinion only, but I think they did ok to get 500million cash not subject to tax, and I think it will be a few years yet to fid. So wouldn't hold my breath for that 75million.

I dont think they will get caught out, I think that with carnage in market and oil so volatile even the conviction short outfits are hedging bets on commodities price crash being overcooked

Yuri is an excellent name.

Where do you get the half from? Tullow sold for cash and its untaxed cash at that. The Ugandan government was looking for CGT of I believe but stand to be corrected 28% on original deal which was to be settled for 100+50+50 and a carry to first oil of a fixed amount. Uganda is going to be a disaster for total with cost overruns and general government interference (for cash to many hands). It looks good on the balance sheet that they increased reserves but that's all this transaction is about for total. Kenya is the same, and tlw right to get out of it although timing could be better.

Sweet jesus blue collar, is that the best you can muster up?,

Where has this 350million minimum raise come from?

I would be more inclined to say GS know lots but they run with the hare and hunt with the hound. I would love to see them and MS and a few others destroyed by this CV calamity but I think if they fall in **** they will come out smelling of roses

With Uganda and Kenya gone how much oil is left, they need to get the drilling right again. This was once the top of class but now its drill results are paltry.

After market open on ops update this rose to 35p, where it was quickly brought under control. 35p is probably a decent near term objective. Oil coming under control, albeit a bit slower than I would like. US weekly figures are bull****. Continental resources shut in 160kbod last week alone. I reckon US production well below 12mbod now. 11mbod by end of May.

OPEC think oil will be 40 at beginning qtr 3.

Latest from Art Berman suggests US "shale" to halve by end July based on rig deployment/demobilization.

Are you looking for an answer or just trolling, noting you said exactly same in post on PMO and considering PMO announced a prospective RI and placement in January it's hardly news. TLW could potentially raise cash although it's not imminent, they may have sought permission in advance to issue shares when CB,s are settled in March 2021 also. Assuming of course that was attractive to those bond holders which the share price now would be way to low for them to consider conversion. My guess is you are just another numpty so its filter time jayhuss

Small correction on hedges

2020 60%@ 57
2021 40%@ 53

OPEX is 12usd on average which is very good

CFD, there are 1.4billion shares in issue. 100k shares is 21k sterling. Not a big sell or buy. That's PI stuff

Which is a big sell cfd

A small war, said as if its depth could be calibrated. I think that Iran is no push over and aside from agreeing in advance the outcome then there is no chance that Trump will go to war. Hes has opportunity and not done it. Not that I would be against the idea of the US imposing a blockade on SA for a year for their behaviour.

I note that the Russian pipe laying barge that was in Spain for retrofit to finish Nordstream 2 is on it's way back to Russian far east. I wonder does it mean the boat was unsuitable or has trump secretly lifted the threat of sanction on allseas, let's watch this space.