Member Info for oilmanmike

Correct.
Started as mining and O&G analyst with Sun Life in 82 pre Big Bang. A young Malcolm Graham Wood, who was a dealer for James Capel, showed me round the floor.

To pick up some of the 6” by 3’ core samples to take off to the lab on Joburg.
Wish my old friend Mark Harris ex WdeB was here to comment!!

An algo/bot as you suggest but it’s a little bit beyond why 10 7 share trades in a row.
Fact is this is cheap and cash dividends will soon be restored.

Thank you for your openness green dog.
DHFD

I dare say that on a successful outcome JC will receive an options grant as a reward. Mr T cannot
be that mean!!

perroverde
Your are not Dalton or O’Farrell are you.
Or perhaps you know them as well.;-)

Just been looking at skin in the game as it happens.
Teeling is the biggest holder with 54m shares (8%),
then Finn with 26.6m (4%), Horgan 15.7m (2.2%) and
finally Campbell with 0.9m (0.13%). Then the are A couple of large private investors Dalton with c4% and O’Farrel with 3.5%. So in total the 3F’s hold just over 21%. I would say that’s pretty high for AIM.

Max resource 2m tons at 75ctht with a value of $220 per carat, works out at £240m.
For the minute I am assuming a 40% interest although they may be able to get to 70%. ( can someone confirm).
40% is worth 12.8p a share max as it currently stands.

Pecten I simply meant that twice the resource equates to a much higher chance of commerciality.
I was not suggesting JC is leading us on a wild goose chase at all. The opposite is the case . I was trying to point out that to be dropping all these hints he must have a good idea by now.
Diamonds a lot easier than oil.
If they are there it’s just open pit unless the system extends too deep.

Campbell strikes me as a well disciplined, knowledgeable trustworthy individual so
why on earth would he lead people up the
garden path a this stage of the game if there
were not good news to come. They are halfway
through drilling the second larger pipe which I believe will secure commerciality and he cannot
stop the references to surrounding mine and identical geology. Either he is a complete idiot
or he already has a good idea that the geology of pipe 2 is the same as the river pipe. Which after a
week of examining the rock chips with TM you would know by now if it were a yes and you would be hoping to recover things with the last 3 holes if you had found nothing.
This remind me a lot of Rockfire where David Price
( a similarly minded hand on Md) gave a running commentary onTwitter to the point where it was obvious the their drilling (for gold) had been a success. Was anybody else in that one when it moved from 0.35p to 2p in a couple of weeks?

He does like the bbc reporter game dosnt he!
The start got cut but he just said about four other
Mines in the area and goes on to list them
Basically it’s Marsfontein and Sugarbird.
The good news is drilling will be completed by the end of the week and we will have news shortly after!! Hmso

We are still waiting to see if they pay anything out for year to 31/3/2020 the announcement should be due round about now. With regards to 2021 a full dividend should equate to around 15p a share on the basis rental income is down 25% on 2019.
We cannot make comparisons with any of the 2020
Income stream for obvious reasons. They paid something like 21p in the last non COVID year.
I am expecting a 5p scrip dividend for the rump of the year just gone as they will need to conserve cash and their REIT status.
Looking forward they have muted the sale of the pubs business, Hawthawn, which will result in a narrowing of NRR’s discount to NAV.
My med term target here is 150p plus the 5p of extra shares.

Preaching to the converted expart.
Don’t think JC would make a very good
poker player. IMHO he has given his winning
hand away with too much genuine enthusiasm.

I think JC said 6 plus holes in current programme.
This is the 3rd or 4th I would imagine

Bot/algo trades. This was happening middle of last week as well.

Good morning Pecten,
I was wondering about that pic as well.
Yes the same Trevor Mashoilane who is beside
JC in the pic of them examining the rock chips
on current drilling. Both have wide grins and look very pleased with themselves.
Going back to the group explorers past present and future pic is interesting as JC and TM couldn’t be in better company. JC is a present explorer and on the assumption that TM spotted the second pipe, which has probably sealed commercially, then TM could be the future explorer, after all how would JC know exactly what the others are upto in the future.
At times of high emotion people become nostalgic.
That meeting in Botswana took place over 4 years ago.

Something pushing the whole sector up today and I suspect the shorts are beginning to sweat now. 40p the 42p and we are away. Short tracker shows 6.8% still. Worth keeping an eye on st to see if there is any movement.

MM have delayed the reporting of all my buy trades here today. Hmmmmmm

Was wondering the same myself.!
IF it is going to 40p I would sell half
at around 20p. Then if it retraced to
15p ish I would buy them back and
Pocket the difference. Which would be
considerably more than my stake.
Got to get a few more to reach a round
1m shares first. A week to go on drilling
and then probably another 2 to 4 weeks
for the assay results. Not that long to wait.
Don’t forget we have been working on TR
for a while now and we are reaching the end
point. If the second pipe comes in and we get
to 0.4 to 0.5 hectares of K pipe them I would
imagine the asset will be sold just like they did
with African Diamonds.
What about you?

6350 pipes discovered in the world to date.
Of which 900 are diamondiferous.
Of which around 30 have been commercial.

The critical factor which dictates whether a kimberlite pipe is diamondiferous or not is
diamond density at the point at which the
ipward moving magma penetrates the diamond
Stability region deep below the earths surface.

https://www.britannica.com/science/kimberlite-eruption

The fact that there are diamond bearing kimberlite pipes at Marsfontein and Sugarbird AND in closer proximity at Thorny River strongly points to the current programme confirming diamonds as well.
In other words if the surrounding pipes pick up diamonds on their way to the surface then it is very difficult to see how this one did not.
This is why the company keep banging on about identical geology. Once the pipe is discovered it either contains diamonds or not. Unlike oil where numerous other factors come into play as to whether the oil is still there, how will it flow route to market. etc None of that uncertainly with kimberlitic diamonds I am pleased to say.
My conclusion having done the maths (posted earlier) is that this is going a lot lot higher on confirmation of the enlarged discovery.
An area of 0.5Ha for both pipes at the Thorny River project equates to 40p a share for BOD.
A nice easy number to remember here is a valuation on success of 100p per hectare of kimberlite pipe.