Member Info for ocelot

The strong finish to the year, with the Retail like-for-like sales performance being robustly ahead of the comparative period, gives the Board confidence that the Group will generate a modest level of adjusted profit before tax(1) for the 52 weeks ended 26 September 2020.

Given the 80% drop in weekly sales in April and the 69% drop in May, that's quite an achievement!

£12 m is the headline number for this facility. Of that £3.9m (£2.4m of sidetrack for 2021 and £1.5m of Abandonment Resere) is unrelated to restarting production but is raised to give debt investors the comfort and assurance they require such that all needs of the Field Development Plan are covered at the outset.

We don't know at what rate the debt will be repaid, what we do know is that £12m is the total amount, which is only likely to be drawn down in full when ANGS undertakes work on the sidetrack.

Chunky trades, 52.1m shares traded across 38 trades, average size of trade = 1.37m.

Loan duration is indicated as "nearer 3 years" than 4.

Say the average outstanding total amount is £6m over 3 years 3 months, interest at 10% will total £1.95m, 51% of which is ANGS's, ie. £994.5k, say, £1m.

Whilst final maturity is likely to be of the order of 4 years, loan duration (a measure of how quickly the investors recover their money through coupons and repayments) will be nearer 3 years.

Does confirm the kind of cash flow they forecast Saltfleetby will generate.

GL ended the conference call by saying that any more questions could be put to him via Investor Questions: he has done as he said he would.

The excitement generated by Alba is wholly understandable.
Clogau/Dolgellau combines quality (high-grade gold carrying a cachet which commands a thumping, great premium) and quantity (25-30kms of the Dolgellau belt, exploration of the first 9kms of which have produced 10 anomalies, 1 of which is 4x the size of the anomaly over Clogau).
The mine already exists, its capex requirements are low, as are its running costs.
The Daily Telegraph article of 24/05 is available on Alba's home page. Its £750m figure for the area's gold potential is obviously very conservative, it excludes any premium for Welsh gold and is based on a figure of 500k ounces which, imho, does not reflect the implication of the word "huge" used by Alba.
How much of this potential worth should be reflected in Alba's share price now?
Don't know exactly how much, but considerably more than is currently reflected!

We have already had a number of instiutions express keen interest, had face to face meetings and a thorough examination of our data room; so, at this stage, we remain confident of a successful conclusion.

We would hope to have soft commitments or so-called strong indications for the larger part of the facility during October, however we can’t guarantee third party timetables. We would expect that the documentation should be significantly simpler and quicker to execute than a traditional Reserves Based Loan which tends to carry a lot of highly technical language suited to funding exploration opportunities, whiereas this is a single asset with a well understood existing production history and carries negligible exploration risk.

Whilst final maturity is likely to be of the order of 4 years, loan duration (a measure of how quickly the investors recover their money through coupons and repayments) will be nearer 3 years.

At Balcombe, our planning application was made in August is likely to be dealt with in December.

6 Investor Questions now:

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

Very back-of-the-envelope, but basic eps in 18/19, the "normal" year before Covid-19 struck, was 5.18p per share.

16.5% growth in the last quarter of this year for like-for-like retail sales.

So, maybe, on a "normalised" basis, that equates to about 6.50 eps in a full year.

Put it on a 15x p/e ratio and you're almost on a 100p share price.

In addition, you've got the near-20% new shareholder, whose intentions are not known.

It's been a disappointing session, both in terms of the share price and, also, of volume, 944.8k, not even a million.

Could some of the interest of institutions in the debt facility spill over into ANGS's equity?

As I understand it:
visible gold was left in the part of the mine now under water;
they believe gold-bearing veins continue below the current lowest level of the mine.
There's a lot of work to do, I think they are going to be fully occupied for a long time to come.

Not particularly concerned about the grades, because, historically, they've been high.

Given the lowly market cap of the share, not even sure they have to find very much gold in order simply to maintain the share price where it is now.

Alba have been excited about the prospects at Clogau for at least the last 12-18 months.

Note that nothing has happened in that time to diminish their excitement, rather the contrary.

I am a long-term investor in ANGS, I tend to interpret what they say in a positive light.

You are a disgruntled investor in ANGS, you tend to interpret what they say in a negative light.

If that constitutes spin, then we are both communicating it.

It's rare to find someone who appreciates spin.

gkb47,

If you've got a question to put to management, why not put it to management?

Why put your trust in an anonymous poster on the board?

gkb47,

You are a shareholder. The Investor Questions' page is there if you have any questions you want to put to management.