Member Info for ocelot

Mirasol,

It's 1.375bn new shares not 1.7bn.

that last trade was a better one: 4.002m at 0.805p.

They are limited in what they can raise by their market cap - they've raised about 10%.

If they believe there are reasons for the share price to rise in the future, then, again, they will limit the immediate raise, in order to limit the dilutive effect.

Timing wasn't exactly what I had anticipated, think it may be in order to bring the negotiations with AME to a satisfactory conclusion.

At least it's generating some interest ... and some volume: 717.3m so far.

We didn't know the amount or the price or the timing, but we did know a placing was coming.

So now it's arrived.

In their RNS of 21/09, UKOG described Saltfleetby as "the UK onshore's largest gas field to date, which produced approximately 73 bcf".

The placing is to help fund Turkey.

Maybe, too, it helps to conclude the negotiations with AME and facilitates obtaining the necessary governmental approval.

Mirasol,

It certainly sums up the market's current view of ANGS's chances of commercial success, but that is the whole point, the market is notorious for changing its view, sometimes very abruptly.

Net assets at 31/03/20 + the net present value at 01/01/20 of the CPR's mid-case forecast, discounted at 10% pa and reduced by 9.1% for the RNS of 23/09 = 4.75p.

The current share price of 0.80p offers, therefore, a discount of 83.2% to that figure, before any upside potential from Balcombe is taken into consideration.

A revision of my post of yesterday of 11:36:

They are proposing to repay (£6.12m + say, £1m of interest =) c£7.12m in "nearer 3 years" than 4, so, say, 3 years 3 months, from the cash generated by Saltfleetby.

Saltfleetby's anticipated cash generation potential is not reflected in the current market cap of £5.72m, with the share price at 0.80p.

Suggest they follow Alba's example and make a placing with warrants attached which are exercisable at a higher price, so that a rise in the share price rewards them with additional cash.

My capitals, from an answer to an Investor Question dated 30/09:

We began approaching lenders during lockdown shortly after the publication of our CPR as we regarded this asset as eminently well suited to debt finance, in particular so-called Reserves Based Lending. This is a specialist form of credit advanced by a now small number of international institutions. Indeed NONE OF THE LENDERS WE SPOKE TO HAD ISSUES WITH QUALITY OF THE ASSET AS SECURITY OR THE ABILITY OF THE CASHFLOWS TO AMPLY SERVICE THIS LEVEL OF DEBT.

Our principal problem was size – generally speaking the larger lenders have high fixed costs associated with evaluating, structuring and approving a loan and reserves based lending is complex and requires a significant time allocation. The larger lenders tend to have a minimum “ticket size” of $20 m and above and ESG has become an issue for some as well. We nonetheless spent the summer doing technical and financial due diligence with one well known institution and were only pushed back due to this size issue at the last minute...

The terms will be the same for all participants, fees will be a bit higher than if the full amount had been made available by one lender.

Sounds as if it's more a question of a small number of lenders, each lending £2m, £3m, £4m, £5m, something like that.

Good to have some news!

No, I've exaggerated, it'll be less interest and the debt, of course.

Another way of putting it: buy ANGS today for £5.72m and get back £6.12m over a period of, say, 3 years and 3 months, less interest but with the subsequent cash flow from Saltfleetby and everything else thrown in for free.

Not sure, financially, that makes much sense.

The Daily Telegraph very conservatively estimated the potential worth of Clogau/Dolgellau at £750m, whereas that potential worth may lie, imho, in the £billions.
It will take a very long time to explore and extract all of that potential, it will take much less time to confirm that the re-opening of Clogau is a commercial proposition, which should, in turn, greatly facilitate the funding of future activities in the licence area.
After much planning and necessary preparatory work, the journey should prove to be an exciting and rewarding one.

At 0.80p, market cap = £5.72m.

They are proposing to repay £6.12m in "nearer 3 years" than 4, so, say, 3 years 3 months, from the cash generated by Saltfleetby.

Can't help feeling there's a mis-match between their current market cap and their mid-term cash generation potential.