Member Info for ocelot

Agreed, very quiet so far, 11 trades on AIM totalling 2.2m shares, no trades on Aquis.

Lots of near-term contracts in the 190ps, summer 22 closing in on 100.000p:

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253323

Looks as if news about HH, Loxley and Basur-3 may all arrive quite closely bunched together.

This winter, the world will be fighting over something that’s invisible, yet rarely so vital—and in alarmingly shorter supply.

Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal and increase the use of cleaner energy sources. But there isn’t enough gas to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before the cold months. Countries are trying to outbid one another for supplies as exporters such as Russia move to keep more natural gas home. The crunch will get a lot worse when temperatures drop.

The crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s energy shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-27/europe-s-energy-crisis-is-about-to-go-global-as-gas-prices-soar?cmpid=BBD092721_OEU&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=210927&utm_campaign=openeurope&sref=Em01M8Hr

It also makes the economics of Basur-3 very attractive.

The operating margin originally anticipated was ($40 - $15 =) $25.

With the price of Brent at $80, that would become ($80 - $15 =) $65 an increase of $40 or of 160%.

Means UK system is particularly vulnerable to a rise in the gas price as is happening at the present time.

Oil rallied at the start of the week’s trading on signs that the crude market is tightening because of a global energy crunch.

West Texas Intermediate topped $75 a barrel after a run of five weekly gains, while Brent hit the highest level since October 2018. Inventories have been drawing, with U.S. stockpiles near a three-year low. At the same time, a rally in natural gas looks set to drive demand for oil as users switch fuels... (from Bloomberg)

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Loxley, not Lidsey!

Oil explorers aren't valued on production alone, account is also taken of assets and prospects.

Lidsey looks to have become a much more valuable asset, always assuming the appeal decision goes in UKOG's favour.

WG818,

We read the same RNS and drew different conclusions.

No problem, that's what makes a market. Without those who are bearish, there wouldn't be any sellers and buyers would not be able to acquire stock at these levels.

From the same article:

In 2000, the UK produced 1.26m GWh of natural gas and imported 26,032 GWh. By 2011, imports beat production for the first time. Last year UK production was 438,520 GWh compared with imports of 478,188 GWh.

And on page 4, entitled "Fuel Crisis":

"Britain is vulnerable to shocks because of a lack of (gas) storage capacity. France has 14 weeks' worth, Germany 8 and Italy 11. Britain has 4 days".

And on page 4, entitled "Fuel Crisis":

"Britain is vulnerable to shocks because of a lack of (gas) storage capacity. France has 14 weeks' worth, Germany 8 and Italy 11. Britain has 4 days".

Front page of the Sunday Times.

"Boris Johnson is backing a new generation of nuclear reactors as Britain finds itself in the grip of an energy crisis.

Ministers are understood to have adopted a 'change of focus' towards nuclear power, which the PM sees as essential to the government achieving its 2050 net zero targets as well as his levelling up agenda ...

A source close to Sunak said: 'His general view is that we should have been doing this 10 years ago, when it was cheaper , but we can't rely on wind and solar power".

Front page of the Sunday Times.

"Boris Johnson is backing a new generation of nuclear reactors as Britain finds itself in the grip of an energy crisis.

Ministers are understood to have adopted a 'change of focus' towards nuclear power, which the PM sees as essential to the government achieving its 2050 net zero targets as well as his levelling up agenda ...

A source close to Sunak said: 'His general view is that we should have been doing this 10 years ago, when it was cheaper , but we can't rely on wind and solar power".

Subject to some further work on the processing particularly processing to depth, Angus are now in a position to reinterpret the seismic, using the new data, with the aim of remapping the structure. The preliminary work suggests that the historical mapping should be discarded and the structure mapped afresh using the new data and with further work to tie in two historical wells nearby at Middleton and Pagham (outside of the Lidsey Field) to provide depth and structural control. This additional data should provide a more complete picture.

They released an RNS on Clogau on 22/09: today is Saturday, 25/09.

£4m for HH;
Alba retains 54% of £11.12m at Greenroc Mining's launch price, ie £6m;
Makes £10m in all.
So a market cap of £15.3m attributes £5.3m to North Wales and Ireland.
Looks way too modest in my eyes, believe Clogau and the Dolgellau gold belt's potential is way higher than that.

Another reason for UKOG to "talk down" the value of HH in its books is the traditional one, of getting all the bad news out of the way.

"Since we've got to take an impairment charge, let's make a clean slate of it", something like that.

It means future positive developments should flow straight through into the figures and, if it later emerges they have over-impaired, then there is the potential to write back that over-impairment into results.