Member Info for ocelot

PS: if you are not interested in long-term projects, then you really shouldn't be following a stock in the energy E&P sector.

A betting stock might be more suitable - they take in wagers before they pay out.

Loxley is a long-term project, long-term projects would never be undertaken if companies were not prepared to invest for the long-term.

But without long-term projects, modern society as we know it would not exist.

You only need to look how long it has taken to reach the stage of no gas to work out what UKOG have got to look forward to imo.
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The factor of time affects the project's net present value, not its long-term value.

As I pointed out in my post of 19:47 f yesterday:

The present value of 1 discounted at 10% pa over Ibug's 8 years to 2030 is 0.4665.

... It’s been an unusual and difficult summer for Europe. Prices and demand typically ease during the warmer months, helping the continent pump gas into storage and prepare for the winter. But Moscow’s supply reduction through all major pipeline routes and searing heat waves have kept gas prices about 11 times higher than they usually are this time of the year ...

The high prices have already forced about half of Europe’s zinc and aluminum smelting capacity to shut down over the past year, and more is set to go offline. Germany, among the worst affected, is risking an industry exodus as manufacturers of car parts, chemicals and steel struggle to absorb energy prices. The government has urged consumers to lower demand, and on Thursday cut sales tax on gas to temporarily ease the burden ...

A prolonged and severe drought in Spain and Portugal is pushing baseload hydroelectric output to historical lows, prompting increased calls for gas-fired power, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/european-gas-set-for-another-weekly-gain-as-energy-pain-deepens?sref=Em01M8Hr

Sir John's follow-up tweet:

Government is preparing options to tackle the cost of living for the new PM. Please include more permits for North Sea oil and gas, incentives to encourage local communities to want to allow onshore gas, tax cuts that cut energy prices and targetted help for low income homes.

PPS: an assumption that the price of natural gas over Ibug's 8 years to 2030 will be zero is NOT a reasonable assumption.

PS: of course, natural gas prices will fluctuate during the course of Ibug's 8 years.

Futures tell you what the market thinks now through to 2026. Beyond that, projections must be made on the basis of what are considered to be reasonable assumptions.

The present value of 1 discounted at 10% pa over Ibug's 8 years to 2030 is 0.4665.

I've not looked recently at the potential gross value of Loxley (before operating costs, therefore) on the basis of current gas prices but, at a guess, it is going to be of the order of 100 times UKOG's market cap, maybe more.

46.65% of a substantial figure is itself a substantial figure, currently remarkable by its total absence from the market's valuation of UKOG.

Jamesthesecond,

We have both been here for some quite considerable time (in my case, since Spring 2019!).

The achievement of first gas has taken longer than forecast, that is obvious. But, imho, prospects for ANGS remain as exciting as ever.

Best wishes.

Winter 26 natural gas contract: 164p

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=6342526

Natural gas Jan 23 contract currently 610p:

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253323

Presumably, a sensitive time when information releases have to be cleared with the NOMAD beforehand.

The 3-year graph shows a peak of around 1.40p.

It's when the share price clearly breaks out above that peak that things will become interesting.

... the Company will now implement a pre-planned farmout programme, whereby the Company's costs would be either fully or part carried by any farminee. (RNS of 20/07/22).

This is pure speculation on my part, and I fully expect a chorus of "I disagree" from the naysayers, but if one farminee was to consider carrying all of Loxley's development costs, might it not also consider making a bid for UKOG, given its current paltry market cap?

What is your interest in UKOG? Are you a shareholder?

Another development which should be brewing is the additional seismic at Basur, given the reasons given for the (relatively small) placing of 27/07:

The Company is undertaking the Placing to progress its corporate and operational strategy detailed in its Operational Update of 20(th) July 2022, consequently the net proceeds will therefore be applied towards:

-- Phase 2 seismic acquisition and processing over UKOG's Basur oil discovery in SE Turkiye; and
-- For general working capital purposes.

One of the developments which is brewing is the pre-planned farm-out of Loxley.

What we don't know is precisely when the process began, how many potential farminees are involved or the range of terms being discussed, ie. we don't know very much, apart from the fact that the pre-planned farm-out programme is being implemented now.

If anything was causing a serious problem, GL would release an RNS.

The absence of an RNS means, therefore, that there are continuing delays but no serious problem.

Global oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze this year as demand remains resilient and spare production capacity dwindles, the new head of OPEC said.

Fears over slowing consumption in China and the wider world -- which have pushed crude prices 16% lower this month -- have been exaggerated, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

At the same time, producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and beyond are running out of extra supplies they can bring to market, Al-Ghais said at OPEC’s Vienna headquarters. The Kuwaiti oil executive was appointed as the group’s top diplomat this month.

“We are running on thin ice, if I may use that term, because spare capacity is becoming scarce,” Al-Ghais said. “The likelihood of a squeeze is there.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/opec-chief-sees-high-risk-of-oil-squeeze-amid-bullish-demand?srnd=premium-europe&sref=Em01M8Hr

The water cut at the HH-2z horizontal well didn't help either.