Member Info for ocelot

"highly encouraging", "particularly exciting", great RNS!

All holes to date have returned mineable widths, with several intersections at least as good as those obtained in the Phase 1 drill programme. The drilled extent of the deposit footprint has doubled and remains open towards the northwest, west and southwest.

Why not take yourself down to the pub, then, WG818?

... why are they naysayers?
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Some of the naysayers appear to be environmental activists. Environmental activists are not necessarily the most objective of commentators on energy E&P companies.

The board isn't just for the naysayers ... despite appearances to the contrary.

matherdj,

I can't even hear myself wondering!

UKOG
@UKOGlistedonAIM
JUMPING FOR JOY IN JUNE: ... And now for July!
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July didn't really live up to its billing.

FWIW (and it may not be worth very much), wonder if the finalisation of the pre-planned farm-out programme hasn't taken longer than originally anticipated and, as an optimist, wonder in turn if the interest expressed in Loxley hasn't proven to be greater than originally anticipated.

Oil samples have now gone for analysis in T ü rkiye and the UK. (RNS of 30/06)
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Wonder what they have learnt from the analysis of the oil seep samples.

2 extracts from SS's speech to SCC's 1st planning committee meeting of 29/06/20:

... Should we prove commerciality, and we would know this within months, not years, ...

There is one further material consideration unique to Loxley; it is one of the few identified
developments that, in the success case, and with your support, can deliver these outcomes in the
timeframe required to make a real difference when the UK and Surrey needs it most ...

https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/SS%20Loxley%20Speech.pdf

At the time of UKOG's Volumetric study RNS of 21/09/20, UKOG was planning to drill Loxley-1 about a year later as follows:

In the event that planning consent for the Company's appraisal and long-term testing programme is granted ..., and Covid-19 permitting, the Company seeks to drill the Loxley-1 well in the second half of 2021.

2 years later, think they may seek to make up some of the lost time, by finalising the pre-planned farm-out programme asap and pressing on while either Sunak or, much more probably, Truss is the PM.

... The cost-of-living crisis is only set to get worse between now and next summer, as consultancy Auxilione predicted that the price cap on bills will gradually rise by more than £4,000 in the next eight months.

They said that the cap is expected to reach £3,576 in October, rising to £4,799 in January, and finally hitting £6,089 in April.

The new forecast is an increase of £96 in January and £233 in April compared to the last one.

The cap is currently at £1,971 for the average household ...

The forecasts, based on Friday's gas price, are another major blow for families around Britain and will put extra pressure on the Government to act.

Around 45 million people are forecast to be thrown into energy poverty this winter ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-20/price-cap-seen-to-breach-6-000-for-first-time-in-grim-new-forecast?srnd=premium-europe&sref=Em01M8Hr

Much more than a year, stockbob, it was around about Spring of last year that I finally filtered HITS.

Latest forecast for average annual household energy bill from next April: £6,000.

The risk/reward ratio of Loxley is enticing.

Because commerciality has yet to be confirmed, the biggest companies will doubtless hold off from participation in the pre-planned farm-out programme.

But that still leaves the project as a potentially big one with room for quite a range of potential farminees.

Mention of the gas they expect to find is made in SS's letter to Jeremy Hunt of 10/06/22 (see UKOG's home page):

As a consequence, and as stated at the inquiry, this is why UKOG has earmarked the 43-70 billion cubic
feet of independently estimated recoverable gas at Loxley as a predominantly blue hydrogen source,
a fuel firmly of our collective futures, capable of delivering an 85% reduction in carbon emissions if
allied to carbon capture.

Royalty at 6% of around £1m = annual revenue of around £16.67m.

Natural gas price on 24/09/18: 77.71p.

Front month closing price yesterday, 19/08/22: 490p.

Annual revenue adjusted for the increase in the price of front month natural gas: £16.67m x 490/77.71 = £105.1m.

It takes so l o n g to do anything in this country. This extract is taken from a presentation designed for local Loxley people dated 25/09/18:

Our primary objective at Loxley-1 is to appraise the gas discovery made in the 1980s at
Godley Bridge, which extends for about 10km and underlies Dunsfold aerodrome.

https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/5f426da774844_200_Facts_about_Loxley-1_Boards_250319.pdf

gregorio,

That's a conversation you need to conduct with the councillors of Surrey CC's planning committee.

Ibug, if you object to UKOG's use of the words "flow tested", you've had nearly 2 years in which to take up the matter with UKOG:

Extract from the Volumetric study RNS of 21/09/20:

In terms of recoverable gas resources, the calculated figures places Loxley as one of the largest gas accumulations discovered and flow tested in the UK onshore. If proven by future production, the calculated gross mean recoverable resources would place Loxley second after the Saltfleetby gas field, the UK onshore's largest gas field to date, which produced approximately 73 bcf.

Take it up with UKOG, Ibug, I am responsible for citing what they have posted on their home page but not for what they have posted.

What is not tosh is that, on the basis of yesterday's closing price for the front month of 490p, Loxley's potential gross value falls into the range of £2.18bn to £3.56bn.