Member Info for observingmen

I bought 10 "best value" silver 1oz coins on bullionbypost on the understanding that they would be an assortment of secondhand coins and could be from anywhere. I was delighted to receive 10 mint, 2013 Brittanias, still in the Royal Mint tube, all for £230 inc. post. Of course this won't happen everytime but I would definitely use them again - they even included 10 of those plastic coin capsules. Come the paper apocalypse, I'll probably be trading one for a jerrycan of brackish water.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/05/01/fed-maintains-stimulus/2126381/ As predicted. Good day tomorrow hopefully. Best silver seems to be 1oz Suriname coins coming in at £19.90 including vat with Atkinsons.

No, I'm not selling either - I'd let them go to zero first. More naked shorting backstopped by the Fed today - I may buy some physical silver as I missed the boat last time.

PAF comfortably out-performed the AIM50 until Nelson resigned in late February, since then there has been a sharp divergence. That seems to be the main problem rather than gold price fluctuations. Fevered, unfocused speculation on iii about Robert Still's share sale two days ago, drawing non-existent parallels with Jan's sale of 135000 shares before he resigned and ignoring the fact that he retained a million shares. Might we see Nelson back again, after his problems are resolved? Any precedent for this?

Thanks for the links. Plenty to look forward to in the next few months.

Looked up the Edison research - all good stuff. Holding up nicely here though, credit to Modsa, it did drop below 14p. Is $800 the figure you'd heard before? I saw some character on iii say the estimated costs for Evander were $1000. I haven't heard that anywhere and it's simply wrong. Unlike Harmony, PAF won't run it at full capacity all year round if the gold price doesn't warrant it.

Yes, Jan said in February that Evander was operating at a cost of $800 an ounce - a 40% margin at that time compared to Barberton's 49% margin. As you say, quite healthy compared to the industry average.

at 13.87 inc costs. I'll do likewise tomorrow if falls more - will also add to my Centamin position

It's fortunate PAF held back on the dividend - not in terms of cash flow but I reckon we'd have been clobbered regardless and, like Centamin, we've a potential good news story to boost the sp down the line. I'll bebuying more today.

Well, we'll know by the end of June. I don't expect the fall of gold to continue - none of the underlying problems have been solved. Unemployment, no growth, a true inflation rate of over 20% in America. JP Morgan announced record profits on the back of speculating with zero interest dollars from Ben the printer yet claimed it was a sign of economic recovery. The central banks buy physical gold and take delivery so they won't be holding off - the fall was caused by aggresive short selling of ETFs triggering stop losses for those with long positions. That accounts for a maximum of 20% of the gold market - and you can only pull that stroke once. I expect a sustained climb back above $1500 on Monday. I don't see sub 14p

If you even take last year's results from Harmony when the cost was $919 per oz then gold still has a long way to fall before Evander is loss-making. I would expect those costs to fall given the work by Harmony in repositioning the decline to give access to a higher grade orebody. The average grade went up by 2g per metric tonne between 2011 and 2012 and costs fell by $150. I anticipate a similar improvement this year as PAF are stating a head grade of 7.43g per tonne for Evander on their website. That's without even considering the Libra tailings deposit (which Jan said would be developed into the Evander tailings retreatment plant) and the undeveloped Rolspruit project which is the best orebody in South Africa at 10g/t. Nelson always sounded the cautionary note that the gold price was beyond his control but costs and production were not. I'm sure that Evander was acquired with that in mind.

They closed down three low grade (3.5-4g a tonne) shafts to concentrate on No.8 (14g+ a tonne) which explains the step change in the amount of gold produced in 2012. Harmony also spent money on cooling plant and ventilation because of the deeper decline and PAF will get the benefit of this restructuring. As Salz says 10 years at least but Harmony's CEO said that, with further investment, Evander could last for 50 years.

Yeah, I won't be picking up any Krugerrands down there;( . I agree about 200000ozs being a bit punchy for Evander. Where did you hear that figure? At best I reckon 110000 to 120000 now that they're mining the higher grade ore body. Factor in that the tailings retreatment at Barberton is now fully operational, I can see a combined 220000 to 230000ozs for both mines, end of year. Which would be nice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtVOhqarpVo&NR=1&feature=endscreen A pleasant diversion, In the absence of any news here

I doubt it but who can tell. Some really strange closing prices lately. They're faffing about with the sp in a very narrow range of 15.75 - 16. I don't mind sitting tight as there is a steady stream of news imminent: CEO appointment, possible deep mining platinum project (something that Jan hinted at at an investor presentation I attended), year end results, possible dividend restoration.

Yes, I am aware that my mining knowledge deficit is a negative. I hope to fly out to Joburg next week to do some networking - hopefully touch base with the likes of Tom Mclachlan and Graham Barber. What those guys can't teach you about mining ain't worth knowing! I've also been refining my patter: "I kin't kintrowel the gold proys but I kin kintrowel costs and priduction", "tilings plont" and so forth. If you can swing it with the chairman I won't forget the lads on LSE.

http://www.financialresults.co.za/2012/harmony_ar2012/integrated-report/dsao-evander.php This is from Harmony's last results:$919 and, more importantly, an improvement in ore grade. I get the feeling PAF are under-promising and 120000oz is achievable. In the medium term they could commission tailings retreatment plant for Evander like the one at Barberton. These Harmony results are pertinent because they've retained the same management team and, I assume, the same workers. The uncertainty after Jan Nelson's exit lingers but both Loots and Holding formerly worked at Evander so the continuity is there. Jan was an affable chap and a great CEO but ultimately, a geologist by profession. You can be sure that the current CEOs had a significant input in determining the viability of Evander. They can drive down these costs at Evander otherwise I don't think they'd have gone for it. Production at any cost is where other gold miners, esp in US, have come unstuck. I'm considering throwing my hat into the ring for the vacancy left by Nelson but it will be dependent on the feedback I get on here. I can assure you that I will maintain a laser-like focus on the low cost model that has served PAF so well to date.

That's the point. Daily Mail group sold their Northcliffe titles to Localworld for £52m as well as getting a 38.7% stake. TNI paid £14m for 20% and still have their dwindling assets. Fox is a non-executive director of Localworld so a sale of the regional titles will surely happen - but the time to cut this deal was back in November. Reminds me of Fox's acquisition at a premium and subsequent firesale of Mamagroup at HMV. Dilatory and lacking conviction. Optimum FX: It gives me no pleasure to say that I called this one but: I CALLED IT FELLA!!!! The only difference is that I thought it would be a train wreck and it seems that it will be a slow motion car crash.

Leave that with me, jolly. Lodan - I would suggest that it's impossible to disgrace yourself on here!

Excellent choice. I'm on the Old Crafty Hen myself, watching Van Damme in Hard Target on ITV. It just doesn't get any better than that!