Member Info for observer842

It's worth comparing the new drill results from this 100% LV against the "exceptional" results from our 30% Yangibana North JV southern expansion announced last summer:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170621/pdf/43k2bnf7dnp96z.pdf

@Acuteperception - at face value it transpired from the respective BCN and HAS feasibility studies that it was more economical at the project level to mine the Lone Ventures before the Joint Ventures. For Sonora there is more overburden on the JV; for Yangibana the mineralization is more favourable to NdPr production from the LV. Bit of a shame really. Optimistically the demand for both Lithium in the batteries and NdPr in the motors of EV's will be significantly greater than most are predicting, meaning that the JV's should be mined earlier than the market is currently anticipating. It's also possible that either or both of these ventures could be sold before their true value outs - needs must. We might make a good buck or two, especially if the markets recover strongly in the lead up to a sale.

Do we know who commissioned the external report into the beneficial holders? For reference:

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/46/section/116

Very promising outlook for LTH's @jimb2 - if we manage to make it through this fairly precarious (IMHO) period intact! In particular: EMH and BCN recover strongly and good progress made on San Luis within the next few months - ideally before we start repaying the loan, and certainly before it is fully repaid.

"EV Company News For The Month Of September 2018" (Oct. 1, 2018)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209230-ev-company-news-month-september-2018
===[
Global electric car sales finished August 2018 with 172,000 sales for the month, up 76% on August 2017, and the second best month ever. Year-to-date sales are up 69% on last year, with 2018 year-to-date sales at 1,078,000, and market share at 1.7%.
]===

Very promising indeed! ;-)

From the updated RNS
===[
Cadence Holdings

As at the 31 August 2018 Cadence had the following key investments: 19.7% of the equity in European Metal Holdings, which, through its wholly owned Subsidiary, Geomet s.r.o., controls the mineral exploration licenses awarded by the Czech State over Cinovec; 7.5% of the equity in Bacanora Lithium Plc and 30% of Mexalit and Megalit joint venture companies. Mexalit is the owner of the El Sauz, El Sauz 1, El Sauz 2, Fleur and Fleur 1 mineral concessions, which forms part of the 20-year mine plan of the Sonora Lithium Project in Northern Mexico; 6.6% of Auroch Minerals Ltd; 4.5% of Clancy Exploration Ltd; 12.1% of Macarthur Minerals Ltd; 4% of the San Luis lithium exploration project in Argentina; 30% free carried interest in one mining lease and six exploration license in part of the the Yangibana Rare Earth Mineral deposit and a 100% interest in and exploration license on the eastern boundary of boundaries of Greenland Minerals and Energy Limited's licences that encompass the world-class Kvanefjeld, Sørenson, Zone 3 and Steenstrupfjeld Rare Earth Element deposits.
]===

I'm pretty sure our 100% Greenland exploration license is on the western boundary of GGG's. Anyone got evidence to the contrary?

Happy now Yangibana @Frankie? ;-) It looks to me that as things stand, unless we sell it on, HAS are playing hardball and are not intending to mine Yangibana North (of which we own 30%) until at least year 11. Additionally they are exploring elsewhere in their 100% areas which could mean that this is pushed back further still.

In terms of links, the Environmental Review assessment of this page was updated today:

http://www.epa.wa.gov.au/proposals/yangibana-rare-earths-project

Search for "epa hastings" or "epa yangibana" if you don't want to click. The main document is the mine closure plan (MCP):

http://www.epa.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/PER_documentation2/Appendix%206%20Mine%20Closure%20Plan.pdf

In recent times, including the annual report from last week, they talk about mining Yangibana West, but not Yangibana North. However, unless I am reading the ruins incorrectly, I can't see Yangibana North not being mining if Yangibana West is - it's similar mineralisation and will effectively form part of the same pit. I could be wrong though!

Ob.

From today's RNS:
===[
Cadence Holdings

As at the 31 August 2019 Cadence had the following key investments: 19.7% of the equity in European Metal Holdings, which, through its wholly owned Subsidiary, Geomet s.r.o., controls the mineral exploration licenses awarded by the Czech State over Cinovec; 7.5% of the equity in Bacanora Lithium Plc and 30% of Mexalit and Megalit joint venture companies. Mexalit is the owner of the El Sauz, El Sauz 1, El Sauz 2, Fleur and Fleur 1 mineral concessions, which forms part of the 20-year mine plan of the Sonora Lithium Project in Northern Mexico; 6.6% of Auroch Minerals Ltd; 4.5% of Clancy Exploration Ltd; 12.1% of Macarthur Minerals Ltd and 4% of the San Luis lithium exploration project in Argentina.
]===

Cheers @tomcat. Confirmation to me that if Yangibana West is mined, Yangibana North will be too - it's essentially the same pit as they are planning for a single void which will become a lake. "9.2.3 FINAL VOIDS" page 104 of the mine closure plan. Interestingly from table 30 in that section they are suggesting an Estimated Closure Date of 2026 - 2035, perhaps implying Yangibana North will be mined in years 10-13 of the mining plan?

Our guys better be all over this new submission...

"Therefore, Hastings envision that the ore will be included in the later stages of the mining plan, which is out of the scope of the feasibility study. In this regard, we view that our priority should be to look to extract value from the asset in the short to medium term."

Those are my thoughts too @addicknt. I have other thoughts but they are less likely, along the lines of the II's forcing us into this position (potentially through shorting) to take a greater share of the pie when raising the £100m through equity.

Some recent decent articles with links upon links to all things lithium:

https://seekingalpha.com/author/matt-bohlsen/articles

http://www.benchmarkminerals.com/notes/

@Ivy does own more than 1% of the company now @Frankie. It's not surprising he's changed to a Buy from a Strong Buy! ;-)

It sure could be a defining week! @addicknt has some interesting thoughts on BCN which could play out nicely for us if they come to fruition. Could... If...;-)

Cheers @degsie. Here's the link to the video they mention in the podcast:

"Electric cars - time to buy one?" (August 31, 2018)
https://www.ft.com/video/1b609af1-0a08-49db-8c19-6b5950f28086
===[
The FT's global motor industry correspondent Peter Campbell drag races a Tesla against an Aston Martin, hits the city streets in a Nissan Leaf and checks out a new Jaguar I-pace.
]===

As predicted, a very informative episode!

"E20: Simon Says" (SEPTEMBER 7, 2018)
http://lithiumpodcast.com/podcast/e20-simon-says/
===[
Joe and Emily are joined by the Benchmark Minerals team of Simon Moores and Andy Miller in James Bond’s hometown of London, England for a cheeky game of Simon Says. In perhaps their most comprehensive episode yet, the four start by discussing the definition of “lithium” as it relates to price.

From there, they discuss prices inside and outside China, and differences by contract length and other variables.

Next they get into why “lithium spot price” is a misnomer, and how prices are determined.

The London conversation then moves on to lithium contracts, markets, and the prices stakeholders should be paying attention to. The conclusion is that so called spot prices in China aren’t a great bellweather for the industry price as a whole. They then discuss the outlook for the hydroxide and carbonate markets, and what needs to happen for a true “benchmark”price to emerge. Simon shares a lithium-inspired James Bond plot, and the Benchmark Boys don’t leave empty-footed.
]===

lol @mr.james - are you trying to draw the ire of @Bannor!? ;-)

Although I have to fully discount your unsubstantiated 0.23p, that's in the region of the sort of immediate value add I'd hope for on raising a few million, all else being equal (from a 0.175p share price), and then hopefully continuing upwards as we unlock immediate potential on signing deals/permits granted and then prove up the value of these new investments through various studies, whilst our existing ones hopefully take care of themselves! 1p ahoy!

In obsland ;-)

Thanks for sharing your take @Ivybush! What with Zulu and San Luis news imminent and EMH progress and news starting to roll in we could be in for an exciting few weeks/months! And BCN? Possibly imminent too! ;-)

@Bannor! LoL ;-) You don't half appear to get wound up quickly. Maybe it's because I'm finding it hard to explain my understanding of the markets succinctly for which I apologise - it isn't easy! What I'm trying to say is that from my perspective the *current* share price/market cap will be significantly higher than today's if we had significant funding on hand - and I believe the BoD will be able to demonstrate this to potential backers, strengthening our hand (the price we raise) - if their offer is not acceptable to us we sell assets instead. For example, lets say the BoD were looking to raise £5-10m through the placing authorisation we gave them in the AGM. I'd be very surprised that on news of this, potentially coupled with Zulu, San Luis, and various other news, that the share price didn't re-rate significantly from today's lows. e.g. an investment of £5m into KDNC should add more than £5m in value - significantly so: we could be looking quite attractive right about now...

IMHO - in summary a placing in KDNC should *create* value (in our share price) by unlocking value elsewhere. Whilst there is uncertainty over funding, San Luis, Zulu, BCN, etc, it remains discounted. Funding may not come - we may need to walk away from new projects if we are unwilling to sell assets at a loss (it won't look good on the accounts...) But we may sell Greenland. We may sell Yangibana, we may (part) sell a Sonora JV. Who knows? Just don't mention a placing. I'm not. It scares away potential new investors. A placing is possible. ;-)

Ob.

@Bannor - I was talking about a premium to today's share price low, not the prevailing share price when it is announced: @ob "I still think it's possible that if we do place it will be at a premium to these lows. Look to the last time we raised funds.".

The analogy with the CLN is because the last time we raised funds the share price rose on the run up to it - if we are talking about raising significant funds on market (millions) then it's possible the same will happen again IMHO. i.e. a placing price will be agreed in advance (to the highest bidders) and the share price will move on the run up to the announcement - for the above board reasons I suggest earlier (and possibly below board too!). How high above today's lows is in the BoD's hands...

By the way, all this not talk about placings - who says we won't go for another CLN - which circumstantial evidence suggests *did* raise the share price on the run up to its announcement? ;-)

Ob.

@Rich - I'm with @Bannor on that - LV is only so big, and we've got it surrounded. ;-)