Member Info for observer842

"Lithium Miners News For The Month Of November 2018" (Nov. 26, 2018)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224402-lithium-miners-news-month-november-2018
===[
Welcome to the November 2018 edition of the lithium miner news. This past month saw China lithium spot prices rise slightly after falling for most of the past year. Given they are now below global prices and demand continues to surprise to the upside prices, we should now start to rally back towards global contract prices ~14-17,0000/t LCE (hydroxide being higher than carbonate).
]===

I've got a good feeling about 2019...

As usual, worth scanning for CHP at:

https://www.cibsejournal.com/archive/PDFs/CIBSE-Journal-2018-11.pdf

which has a link to:

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/energy_assessment_guidance_2018_-_update.pdf

which is also worth scanning for CHP.

Cheers @Mullins - first half worth a watch:

"Exclusive: Hardman & Co call the lithium market: is a change in trend happening?" (23 Nov 2018)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7oVG3ygW2I
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Paul Mylchreest, Mining Analyst at Hardman and Co updates the market on the fundamentals driving demand for lithium, and tells the London South East financial website why now is a good time to be investing in lithium, with supply and demand broadly in balance. Chinese spot prices have been falling, contract demand rising, and Paul 'thinks a genuine change in trend is beginning to happen'.

Lithium is required for the manufacture of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries. The growth in electric vehicles underpins demand. EV's constituted 1 % of the global car market in 2017, and according to Hardman are estimated to take a 15% share by the middle of the next decade. China is the largest EV car market.
]===

Of course even the fairly optimistic analysts are wrong: EV's will reach near 100% production penetration between 2025-2030. DYOR - look to the writings of Tony Seba ;-)

Ob.

Matt Bohlsen produces monthly updates which can be used to answer @tomcat's question: "does anyone know what the global ev market share is at currently... has it surpassed 1% ev’s yet... (excluding hybrids - pure ev’s)..."

"EV Company News For The Month Of October 2018" (Oct. 31, 2018)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216456-ev-company-news-month-october-2018
===[
Global electric car sales finished September 2018 with over 200,000 sales for the month, up 61% on September 2017, and the best month ever. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) led the way with a record 38,771 deliveries in one month, thanks mostly to the Model 3. Year to date sales are up 68% on last year, with 2018 year to date sales at ~1.3m and market share at 1.8%, with three months left to be reported on. It is now looking like 2018 global electric car sales will be approaching 2m, and over 2% market share.

Of note, 65% of all global electric car sales so far in 2018 were pure electric.
]===

65% of the market share of 1.8% is 1.17% at the end of September, so yes, pure EV's have surpassed 1% total market share of produced cars.

I thought I'd look back to when. Looks like it was at the end of June:

"EV Company News For The Month Of July 2018" (Jul. 31, 2018)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4192478-ev-company-news-month-july-2018
===[
Global electric car sales finished June 2018 with almost 160,000 sales for the month, up 58% on June 2017, and the third best month ever. Year to date sales are up 69% on last year, with 2018 year to date sales at ~760,000, and market share at 1.6%

Of note, 63% of all global electric car sales so far in 2018 were pure electric.
]===

63% of the market share of 1.6% is 1.008%. The previous month was less than 1%. With 3 reporting months remaining it's looking like pure EV's be over 1.3% market share by year end. ;-)

Ob

I make 96.5m shares equal to around 1.23% of the company. Blimey O'Reilly! ;-)

@JackBNimble. It's not rocket science - just click on the poster's name... @Ivybush. I understand and believe your belief! The BCN fall shook mine a little, but it's great to see it bouncing back! ;-)

@Frankie thanks for the confirmation of Ivy's holding. Thought I'd check why he stopped posting. Apparently it was in response to a single post:

@mrcautious (11 Oct '18)
===[
Sorry it is ramping, you are not forced to tell us every time you buy a share surely - this is one of the most irritating things people do on discussion boards !
]===

with zero recs. However earlier posts with said "irritating" buy information from @Ivy garnered many recs, and this one claiming he now owned over 1% 10 recs:

IvyBush (6 Oct '18)
===[
@JackbNimble I am indeed flattered by your concern of my financial welfare.

For your information I now hold over 1% of kdnc share capital and happy to do so.

To allay your concern, I limit my exposure to any investment I make to a figure that
I am prepared to lose in full.

I have always stated that my investment here would be for a minimum 2/3 years.

Whilst it is true I am showing a book loss currently I do expect to realise a good profit
in due course. The outlook for Lithium use in battery development is very positive.
]===

So in summary I'd say that most of the readers on this board *do* like to hear about buys from someone I consider a respected poster - clearly you have to earn that respect, which IMHO @Ivy did.

Come back @IvyBush - you were a valued contributor - don't let a few negative posters put you off!

Of course, when you start to sell you might want to be a little more subtle about it. ;-)

Ob.

One explanation might be that the more viable BCN (re)becomes, the more viable our Sonora JV's. After all, these are where our fortunes lie for many invested here. Me included: if we manage to get a good agreement in place and BCN announces plans for 50ktpa or greater then we could very will re-rate on a dime ;-)

https://web.archive.org/web/20180825171558/http://www.bacanoralithium.com/investor-relations/restricted-aim-rule-26/

Cheers @Bannor - as you are presumably hinting at, the redom of BCN to London might have been the reason why we now have to report crossing the 6,7,8, 9% thresholds where previously we were (apparently) exempt as an investment company in the 5-10% range.

I agree with everything you said @Bannor! ;-) It's interesting to note that some sites (this one) don't show it under KDNC's feed, meaning that those subscribed to that feed were presumably not alerted.

In terms of why the 7% crossing and not the 8% one @tomcat - I suspect that someone looked more carefully at the rules and decided that in fact we weren't exempt at reporting in the 5-10% range as was once stated on BCN's AIM 26 rules page.

Looks about right to me @Bannor. In addition we may still hold small amounts (totalling about £140k) in NMX and LGC.

@JackbNimble. KDNC announced the 6.95% via a TR-1 at the same time as BCN on 16th October 2018. However since it appears to be a joint announcement, it appears that not all news sources have a record of it. If in doubt go to the source! ;-) Both https://www.londonstockexchange.com and http://www.cadenceminerals.com/rns/ list the announcement.

Key dates from my perspective:

13 Jun 2016: Align report: http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Inspirit-Energy-Align-Research-13th-June-2016-Final.pdf
16 Aug 2016: Collaboration agreement with CIBSE.
3 May 2017: Discussions with Argentarius to raise up to £2m through asset backed bonds.
18 Jul 2017: Electrical efficiency improved from 3.0kW to 3.2kWe.
21 Aug 2017: Argentarius arranged funding apparently falls through.
14 Nov 2017: Accelerated redemption of all securities related to Argentarius by year end.
28 Dec 2017: CIBSE ongoing collaboration confirmed.
29 Mar 2018: Increased efficiency in the regenerator allows commodity grade stainless steel derivative to be used.
12 Apr 2018: CIBSE ongoing collaboration confirmed.
04 May 2018: Issue of £845k of Convertible Loan Notes raising £530k in cash, the balance converting existing debt.

News well overdue! Coming up to six months since the issue of the Convertible Loan Notes: convertible at a minimum of 0.07p... Buying shares at half that could turn out to be a steal in hindsight! ;-)

Ob.

Hopefully the end of the beginning @Hydro1! INSP continues to be a Weak speculative Buy from me, especially at what seems like buy 1 get 1 free prices... ;-)

We were never told, but I'd say there were likely problems with the accreditation in 2016. The question is, have we resolved or are we close to resolving whatever scuppered us then? We've improved efficiencies, reduced costs, and should have a CIBSE report in the making. But what about funding? I see dots to join, and I'm sure whoever joined in on the last fund raising does too... ;-)

Worth a read:

"Lithium-fueled Electrification 15+ Year Megatrend" (October 22, 2018)
http://www.libull.com/2018-10-22-Feels-Like-the-First-Time.pdf
===[
MEGA TRENDS:
- Mass Adoption of Electric Transportation
- Mass Adoption of Residential Electricity Storage
- Widespread Implementation of Enterprise Storage Solutions (ESS)
- Long-term Sustainability Through Recycling
- National Security of Lithium-ion Battery Supply
]===

£293k was for 2016. Kiran's 2017 total was round £150k, and I believe he is now on around £100k from April, and there were no share based payments in 2018 - so far.

Final post in this well thought out series concludes with:

"Testing Tony Seba’s EV Predictions 20 (The Conclusion: Is It “Boom, Over” for the Internal Combustion Engine?)" ( October 16, 2018)
https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/10/16/testing-tony-sebas-ev-predictions-20-the-conclusion-is-it-boom-over-for-the-internal-combustion-engine/
===[
Next question: “Are EVs at the tipping point in any of the above segments?”. Twelve months ago, the answer to that question would have to be ‘no’. But you are lucky to be living at a unique point in history. As of the third quarter of 2018, the answer must be “yes”, and that is down to Elon Musk and his Model 3. The rise of Model 3 sales over the course of 2018 has been nothing short of stupendous despite all the much-reported production issues.
...
My own guesstimate is that the EV penetration rate will likely be somewhere between 60-80%, which still puts me completely outside of the mainstream.

Nonetheless, in the spirit of Tony Seba hyperbole, I am happy to go out on a different type of limb. So in my words (rather than Tony Seba’s):

“All those who think EV sales penetration will remain down at around 30% in 2030 (the consensus view) are completely, utterly and certifiably crazy!”
]===

Going to need a lot of lithium! ;-)

Here is the link to the first post:

https://therationalpessimist.com/2018/05/18/back-testing-tony-seba-1/

@d21 Watching. Waiting... Hoping! ;-)