Member Info for observer842

What price would you happily accept? Why isn't the share price there now? How long will it take? Hopefully these are the questions our BoD will be asking too!

You'd have thought if they were serious they would buy everything available on market up to and including 15.5p, perhaps even a little above this.

I'd say no word from the BoD means it's an option. Options are good.

@Dallas you could be correct, but I think it's equally likely that the order was changed to reflect what now *can* happen, not what *will* happen now. I don't think anyone should be in any doubt that an agreement with the banks could be made today in the last hour, and if you think you'll be able to buy in at these prices in volume after that, I say good luck to you!

I didn't like to mention. LoL! Can't you resize the window? Bottom right of this box we are typing in is drag-able.

More importantly - great! Turns out I can divine the closing prices :-)

"Iron ore futures log weekly gain on upbeat demand, Brazil supply concerns" (JUN 12, 2020)
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/iron-ore-futures-log-weekly-gain-on-upbeat-demand-brazil-supply-concerns-2020-06-12
===[
BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - Benchmark iron ore futures in China ended higher on Friday and posted a weekly gain of more than 3%, buoyed by sustaining demand at mills and concerns over supply from Brazil.

The most actively traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange DCIOcv1, for September delivery, closed up 1.9% at 777 yuan ($109.81) a tonne. For the week, the contract gained 3.5%.
]===

Looking promising! :-)))

I agree on all those points @Bannor, in particularly c) - the recent fund raise demonstrating to the banks that we are willing to play the long game should they wish to call our bluff.

Can anyone confirm that the September delivery appeared to close 1.9% up:

http://www.dce.com.cn/DCE/Products/Industrial/Iron%20Ore/index.html

I don't understand the graphs...

One thing that crossed my mind recently is that because the BoD RNS'd this:

"Amapá Iron Ore Project Given Court Approval to Commence Iron Ore Shipments" (14 April 2020)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428203156429223
===[
In addition, the Court has requested that the secured bank creditors reach an agreement with the JV Partners and DEV within 60 days or the Court might rule on the annulment of the Bank Liens and consider the banks as unsecured creditors. As unsecured creditors, the bank's credit will be subject to restructuring plan limits and discounts and be paid from free cash flow from DEV, which may be over fifteen years.
]===

they really should RNS on Monday the outcome/progress... I doubt they will, but they should!

I must say the same thought had crossed my mind @tomcat. @Dallas and @jimb2? translated it but the tables at the end are a real pain to read, and some of the values are pretty much impossible to extract, but others are fairly straightforward if you have a bit of patience and a calculator.

I'd feel more comfortable posting confirmation of them, rather than stating them unilaterally as I'd hate to make a mistake people traded on. I know I'm using them to inform my decisions!

One thing you'll realise is that we perhaps haven't explored the costs and inter-dependencies of international shipping sufficiently. I've been reading up the past year, more so recently, but you'll see from some of the questions I've asked @Bannor it's not obvious what's what, although it's becoming clearer...

No one should be afraid to ask questions for fear of looking stupid. We are all stupid, just hopefully not all on the same topics! LoL. ;-)

Ob.

I can see why @Kiran thinks we need a scoping study as I'm of the impression that the market doesn't understand the nature of this project to KDNC - how it differs to other projects at this "apparent" stage of development (pre "feasibility study"), or if it does understand perfectly well (unlikely everyone does!), it's seriously discounting the chances of the BoD pulling it off.

One of the most important points garnered from one of the recent interviews (which better not be false @Kiran!) is when we get our 27% of the project, that's ours to keep, any further equity (~$24m) as described by the JRP, accompanied by at least $85m debt towards the CapEx, does *not* dilute us. So once we are at 27% the NPV of the project should be pretty real to us, with the additional bonus that we have an option to take our shareholding to 49%. How many other projects at a similar stage can say that?

Yes, yes, I know it sounds too good to be true... But it always does until the re-rate, and then it seems perfectly reasonable. :-)

I think I've got a good grasp of this project now (finally!), and some of the NPV calculations I'm seeing are indicating a 10 bagger from here is on the cards, of course predicated on agreement with banks/judges ruling in our favour, Amapa progressing roughly as planned, iron ore prices not collapsing, BRL not strengthening too much against USD, and shipping rates not going through the roof... But apart from that! LoL. Some of those are interconnected, i.e. it's unlikely all 3 would happen at the same time, especially IMV with less oil and coal being shipped in years to come!

I strongly encourage everyone to take a read of the JRP. I'm getting the impression it's only been a handful of us... It was only made publicly available in the last month or so. Can't say I didn't try to guide you to see what I'm seeing. ;-)

And for balance - if Amapa fails, we are pretty much doomed. Unless of course good news from one of our existing holdings saves the day!

Ob.

Anyway, shouldn't we be discussing the follow up to this which was just posted on the EMH board.

"ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING VOLUNTARY TENDER OFFER BY KGI FOR THE ACQUISITION OF 29.9% SHARES OF EMH" (11. 6. 2020)
https://www.krupainvestments.com/en/announcement-regarding-voluntary-tender-offer-by-kgi-for-the-acquisition-of-29-9-shares-of-emh/

"KGI PROPOSES VTO FOR UP TO 29.9% OF OUTSTANDING SHARES OF EMH" (11. 6. 2020)
https://www.krupainvestments.com/en/kgi-proposes-vto-for-up-to-29-9-of-outstanding-shares-of-emh/
===[
Due to the low market liquidity at London Stock Exchange (AIM) where EMH is listed, KGI decided to launch VTO for outstanding shares of EMH. Average daily trading volume in London at EMH is approximately 200.000 shares which is too small to increase KGI´s position significantly via market.
]===

I don't think I've ever heard anything so outrageous! LoL. If it's volume they want they can easily create it! Just buy on market - you won't get 15.5p though... :-)

Ob.

Not google earth. google maps streetmap. Same images, except the latter tells you at the bottom right the capture date.

The street map is from Nov 2012. If you go to maps.goggle.com it tells you the capture date. You can also see for Aug 2012:

https://goo.gl/maps/aqpCQous1A1HNgs38

You can toggle the date between "October 2017" and "Oct 2018 - Aug 2019"

https://zoom.earth/#view=-0.060594,-51.166214,18z/layers=esri

(if 5-6 years then great evidence it's ours)

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the street view as it could be many years old. The satellite view however... :-)

I'm looking here,

https://goo.gl/maps/SHNdZKxHXo5gCmoP7

both sides of the road. We need to determine how long those piles have been there for.

@Dallas. I remember you asking that. Not sure why we didn't look! :-)

I suppose it's possible there's a confidentiality reason? Not sure what though.