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Anyone had a go at estimating an NPV10% on the Amapa project given the latest around what we know?

I'd be interested in seeing what others estimate for the following long term averages:

$61/t 62% Fe; $80/t 65% Fe
$80/t 62% Fe; $100/t 65% Fe
$100/t 62% Fe; $115/t 65% Fe
$120/t 62% Fe; $135/t 65% Fe

My understanding is that to date we've reported the conservative values in the first row used in the JRP in our RNS's, where current prices sit somewhere between the last two rows :-)))

Alternatively we can just sit it out for the scoping study to be told a range of NPV's, but where is the fun in that!? ;-)

Ob.

Presumably, since "with the movement of the stockpile to the public port scheduled commence this month", which means news is possible next week (today even), though personally I think we'll get everything lined up to go, but not actually execute until the secured creditors have been resolved, so could be more like end of June: "a ruling in relation to DEV's petition to annul the secured creditors liens and charges over the Amapá Project is now scheduled for the end of June 2020."

Indeed @tomcat. From today's RNS: "While the drilling does not include Cadence license areas". I wonder why our NOMAD didn't pick up on it either? I wonder if there's something happening behind the scenes? Get those ducks rowed up.

To see the relevant entry in the diary's you can search for our case number in quotes at the bottom of https://dje.tjsp.jus.br/

Today's diary's contain the certification of the recent ruling in our favour. :-)

By the way, if you think they are planning on doing something sneaky, err, I mean strategical, that will benefit us if best left undiscovered, then probably best you keep it to yourself...

@tomcat. Do you agree that M 09/161 is our JV and HAS appear to be planning on drilling it? A possible positive alternative I can think of is that we have sold it. I'm personally a fan of letting our BoD get on with wheeling and dealing small amounts, but I know that some would like to know every cough. Perhaps we'll find out when our annual reports are released before the end of the month. Talking of which, I'm wondering if the BoD are looking to bury something in there whilst we all celebrate good news released around the same time? If the news gets the share price up to 40p and beyond I'm sure we won't fuss too much over bonuses and options, so long as they aren't taking the piste, though I'm not sure everyone will concede they deserve it! LoL. ;-)

I presume not. Perhaps I should have no opinion until I do?

And for balance, the same logic applies to when a share quickly moves down for no apparent reason when on the cusp of potentially company changing news! LoL!

@swinger. Surely with >10,000 posts you must realise this period is possibly one of the most interesting and intense for an AIM company in our position! It's about who blinks first in the run up to the potentially company changing news towards the end of the month. If the shares move quickly upwards, why is that? Has somebody got inside information? Has someone spotted something? Is an RNS about to land? A placing agreed higher up? Or is it simply someone not being able to take the pressure and hitting the buy before the news? Most of the market won't know the answer, and if sufficient get FOMO there will be a rush to pile in. Seen it many times before, in many AIM shares. Sometimes it's FOMO driven, sometimes it's one of the former. ;-)

Thanks @Barksy. Other than the inexplicable change of details for @Kiran (EMH), all looks to be expected to me.

Sounds about right - especially now our $2.5m held in escrow pretty much covers the value outstanding on our loan...

Just hope our BoD have their eyes more closely focused on the bigger picture, than some (ahem!) of us do on the finer details. LoL!

There's been plenty of research done and shared on here over the past year which indicates to me that if Amapa comes good it's a complete game changer for us. Literally from pennies to pounds (in time!) :-)

Ob.

See earlier post from @Bannor. It's one of our Yangibana JV areas which @Kiran seems to have forgotten about. HAS intend to drill into it according to the figure on their announcement.

I suspect we might see a correction RNS issued, when @Kiran's woken up...

As I said: IMHO a decision regarding the banks before material progress on the project works in our favour. The courts are already operating remotely.

:-)))

I presume it goes without saying that the more we de-risk the project without actually resolving the issue of the bankers, the more attractive we make it for a hostile bid through the bankers... Going by the timescales, the courts appear to recognise this: decision is end of June, shipping is beginning of July... High iron ore prices is a double edged sword, the project must be looking very attractive right about now!

Yes, that should be more than enough time for them to coordinate between themselves and potential backers a counter-proposal to ours. I suspect that's what some of the most cynical invested in KDNC are expecting to happen, for the rug to be pulled out from under our feet in the last hour. I'm hopeful the judges thoughts are the real reason for delays, and not the precursor to something nefarious heading our way:

https://esaj.tjsp.jus.br/cpopg/show.do?processo.codigo=2S000I22C0000&processo.foro=100
===[
But what would be the reason for the refusal, if, economically, the guarantee will not be emptied? Everything indicates that the lack of internal cohesion among the banks led to decision-making paralysis, either in relation to the acceptance of the Recuperanda payment proposal or in relation to the execution of the guarantee, and also about the disposal. All of this results in stopped iron ore, to the detriment of all involved, only due to the unjustified refusal of the guaranteed creditor. It is a bad exercise of the guarantee right. In this case, it remains for the Judiciary to correct the abuse in the exercise of the right, authorizing the sale.
]===

When this issue is resolved and we (hopefully!) take up our 20% I'm expecting a significant re-rate here. I would also expect precursor movement on news leading up to this (movement of ore, shipping, etc), or AIM being AIM, on anticipation of news leading up to this, depends who blinks first. :-)

Ob.

Thanks for your kind words too @jimb2! :-)

Thanks for your kind words @Cause17. I gave the direct link earlier. Here it is again:

https://esaj.tjsp.jus.br/cpopg/show.do?processo.codigo=2S000I22C0000&processo.foro=100

And note, just because I feel more at ease with my (now considerable for me) investment here than I did this morning, nothing is a dead cert in this world. And this certainly isn't! But feels like good odds for potentially good returns to me from here! But I always was one for an educated gamble. :-)

@jimb2 My take now is that the banks have been unable to agree with themselves what type of deal they wanted, and this has been the cause of the delays for many months, along with them perhaps not believing we can deliver on the plan. I presume from what @Kiran has mentioned in interviews we might have indicated to them what type of repayment plan we would be willing to entertain, but it seems like they have yet to reach a consensus. Although I'm not certain at this moment, from what I've read today I think it's likely a consensus is required so they are all treated the same. I don't know what percentage have to agree though. Possibly 100%... it'll depend on the union's terms of reference I presume.