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@isb1974: "including another fundraise" - Not necessarily a placing though, we have assets we could sell. Though my money is on RiverFort wanting in on the action by extending their CLN near the prevailing share price - which means less scope for the usual AIM forward selling shenanigans. :-)))

Whilst I wait for objections, anyone want to have a stab at calculating what the EBITDA would be at $180/t, all things being equal? Secure your socks before you do though! LoL.

Link please Ob? :-)

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/ironore62

My memory failed me. Peaked into the $180's/t :-)

By the way, iron ore prices were above $125/t for most of 2008- 2013 (peaking around $170/t), so I think it's reasonable to explore what the EBITDA may be at $120/t I would have thought? :-)

@Bannor - sounds like you want to play. :-). Let's use the BoD's estimates rather than mine.

"Approval of Judicial Restructuring Plan Paves the way for the Restart of the Amapá Iron Ore Project." (30 August 2019)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2887382
===[
Full production by 2024 of 5.3 million tonnes ("Mt") of iron ore per annum.
At full production and using US$61 per tonne of 62% Fe Amapá is forecast to have:
... an average EBITDA of US$136 million per annum.
]===

Therefore to the first *approximation* each increase of $10/t to the 62%Fe price increases the EBITDA by how much? I make it 5.3Mt * $10/t = $53m. Which means at $101/t (approximately today's price) the stated EBITDA increase from $136m per annum to:

$136m + ($53m * 4) = $348m

Anyone want to dispute that? It's an approximation. Perhaps it'll be a bit more, perhaps a bit less. Exchange rates, OpEx costs, shipping rates etc all change - but going on what was estimated by our BoD last summer, does that sound about right?

Call it a test run of the new calculator ;-)

Ob.

LoL @Bannor. I don't see anyone else contributing to this thread, so I'll perhaps move it along a little.

LoL @jimb2: I was a minute too slow. Answered below. Repeated:

===[
In April 2017, DPJ (Jindal) Group agreed to invest. However, the transaction was never completed. Amapá is now back in the hands of the court as defined primary creditors (employees) filed a petition against DPJ Jindal for its lack of investment and failure to pay its obligations under the agreed restructuring plan approved by the court in April 2017;
]===

Oh - *our* investor presentation. LoL. Page 18 in full:

"INVESTOR PRESENTATION" (June 2020)
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JUN-2020-PUBLIC.pdf
===[
Amapá was first developed by former Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista with the first ore shipped in December 2007;

Anglo American acquired Amapá in 2008 as part of a larger package of mining assets. It never intended to hold Amapá long term but invested $1.0bn to prepare it for sale. As early as 2011, Amapá was valued at $1.5bn in Anglo American’s accounts;

A cyclical decline in the iron ore price led Anglo American to sell Amapá for $266mn in December 2012 to Zamin Ferrous, a company owned by Indian billionaire Pramod Agarwal. This price was ultimately reduced to $130mn to adjust for needed repairs to the port

Amapá produced 4 – 6 million tons of iron ore annually from 2011 -2014. In 2014 – Amapá’s last full year of production – 4 million tons were mined and 1.8 million tons were sold;

The Santana port was damaged by an industrial accident in early 2013 and exports from Amapá were drastically reduced. See
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-21971513 and https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-mining-anglo-accidentidUSL2N0CM0FI20130330;

Amapá borrowed $135mn senior debt from a banking group led by Intesa Sao Paolo and rebuilt 70% of the port. It ran into financial difficulties before work was completed;

Amapá filed for Judiciary Protection in August 2015 in Brazil. Mining at Amapá was suspended and all its staff were dismissed.;

In April 2017, DPJ (Jindal) Group agreed to invest. However, the transaction was never completed. Amapá is now back in the hands of the court as defined primary creditors (employees) filed a petition against DPJ Jindal for its lack of investment and failure to pay its obligations under the agreed restructuring plan approved by the court in April 2017;

In January 2018, a judicial order offered investors the opportunity to place US$2.5m in escrow (to ultimately benefit priority local Amapá creditors) in return for an exclusivity period to conclude debt restructuring negotiations and fully acquire Amapá
]===

Points of note:

1. Invested $1B - was valued at $1.5B.
2. 4Mt mined, 1.8Mt sold in last year of full production. Presumably more mined in the next partial year and not sold - corresponding to Indo Sino and Gerald's claims?
3. $135m identified.
4. DPJ (Jindal) Group seem to be the ones who just had their appeal rejected. :-)))

Bits I found of interest:

"Zamin: A disastrous operation in Amapá. Judicial recovery is the solution!" (April 28, 2017 )
https://tribunaamapaense.blogspot.com/2017/04/zamin-uma-operacao-desastrosa-no-amapa.html
===[
According to the prosecutor, Adilson Garcia, the debt authorized in the recovery records is approximately R $ 1.4 billion, of which R $ 8,159,120.87 is due to labor debts.
...
The conveyor belt system with 5,000 tons of product was used for loading in the Handymax ships, at the port of Companhia Docas de Santana, which increased the project's operating cost.
...
On the date of acquisition of the Integrated Mining Project by Recuperanda, the price of a ton of iron ore was USD 135.00 (one hundred and thirty-five US dollars - CIF China), but from that moment the price began to plummet, reaching its lowest level at USD 39.00 (thirty-nine US dollars - CIF China) for the same product quality.
...
Santana's promoter of the Environment, Adilson Garcia, concludes by saying that if we opted for BANKRUPTCY DECLARATION, it would be highly damaging because Banco Intesa Sanpaolo has a fiduciary alienation agreement on top of the US $ 135 million stocks, Banco ABN AMRO BANK has a pledge of $ 50 million dollars and GERALD METALS owns $ 400 million in ore stocks, estimated at four million tons (2.8 million in the yard in Santana and 1.2 million in Pedra Branca do Amapari ).
]===

Found it...

Dev Drilling Pte Ltd. (DP Jindal Group)

Seems to match fairly closely with @Dallas's find @tomcat.

Great find @Dallas! Got a link?

Indeed @Barksy. I wonder what the feeling would be on here if by selling, say, half of our EMH holding it meant we could go to 27% of Amapa without a further placing? I suspect so long as we get more than a recent VWAP the majority will be happy. Though I don't think we'd be happy if we sold all of our holding at anywhere near the current share price given a re-rate could be on the cards in the coming months/years, especially should lithium prices start to recover strongly - their decline appears to have plateaued for now.

Perhaps they'll publish the accounts at the same time. ;-)

@Ivy, I'm actually hopeful that tomorrow or early in the week we'll get something of a summary RNS which includes recent court developments, an update on mobilisation at the ports, and a correction that HAS intends to drill some of our JV areas in Bald Hill.

@Zoom. Although it's possibly in my interests to stay quiet and let you believe that, I'm not going to. The news we've been waiting for will hopefully come later this month when the question over the secured credit (the banks) is hopefully resolved in court, and *then* we might exercise our right to take our 20%. Anyone discovered the date of the hearing?

@Ivy, if they were going to confirm in an RNS they should have done so Thursday or Friday - unless they like giving those who are following the case a bit of a head start - it's all in the public domain after all. ;-)

Also it is 70% of the claim (30% haircut) - not 40% or ~30% haircut as I was pondering yesterday.

Nothing worse than a typo in a subject heading! LoL. At least it's quite a spectacular one.