Member Info for observer842

L LoL @MB ! :-)

Well remembered @tomcat! :-) https://riverfort.com/fund/

Just in case a certain poster was a little too verbose yesterday and you missed them!

"Union Jack Oil, Cadence Minerals, BWA Group and Paul Hill" (8 Jun)
https://audioboom.com/posts/7601913-union-jack-oil-cadence-minerals-bwa-group-and-paul-hill
===[
Kiran Morzaria, CEO of Cadence Minerals #KDNC provides an Amapá Operational Update and explains what the £650,000 they've raised will be used for.
(Interview starts at 10 minutes 8 seconds)
]===

"RiverFort Global Capital Webinar Featuring Cadence Minerals plc" (20 May 2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgvMSxoJ8R4

"Cadence Minerals #KDNC - CEO Interview plus Q&A" (8 Jun 2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGhDQjFgP7k
===[
Alan Green talks to Cadence Minerals #KDNC CEO Kiran Morzaria. Kiran talks about the company's investments into the Czech Cinovec Lithium project via European Metals #EMH, Macarthur Minerals iron ore projects in Australia, plus Lithium JV's with Bacanora in Mexico and Hastings Tech Metals at Yangibana, Australia. Kiran then elaborates on the company's flagship Amapa Iron ore project in Brazil, discusses the latest developments re shipping the ore stockpile, the fundraise for the scoping study plus the value inflection points going forward. Alan and Kiran then go through a shareholder Q&A, before Kiran finally provides key takeaway points for. investors, highlighting the valuations on each of the projects.
]===

@tomcat. Re-doing my calculations as requested...

This is what I make the gross revenue to be based on $100/t Fe 62% and $115/t Fe 65%

4.4Mt * $115/t+ 0.9Mt * $100/t = $506m + $90m = $596m

In terms of the stockpiles:

Total revenue is simply approximately 1.39Mt * 100 = $139m

Net shipping costs of $27/t is $139m - $37.5m = $101.5m

Per 45kt ship is $101.5m * (45kt /1.39Mt) = $3.3m

Though I'm not sure where @Kiran's $30-40m using Fe 62% $80/t comes from. I get:

($80/t - $27/t) * 1.39Mt = $73.67m

So it's possible the $27/t he mentioned was the estimated cost from our port, when rehabilitated, assuming today's shipping prices.

If the all inclusive costs were double this today, say $54/t the estimate would become @ Fe 62% $80/:

($80/t - $54/t) * 1.39Mt = $36.14m

which sits bang in the $30-$40m range.

What do you think @Bannor?

Ob.

Cheers @Bannor! Do you know if the stated charter price is inclusive of fuel? I had presumed so. $15k a day seems a bit high at the moment from what I'm reading. Take a look back through several issues of the Baltic Briefing:

https://thebalticbriefing.com/category/dry-report/

I see that you have included the costs from moving the ore to the public port as well. That might explain around $10/t or so?

Admittedly it might make sense to err on the side of caution at this time...

Ob.

Cheers @Barksy. Depending on what you said you might want to press the recall button! LoL. Turns out I had miss-concluded from reading Anglo's accounts back in January (20th). I'll come back to that at some point no doubt to ask for help in unravelling the head scratcher. Whatever the answer it wasn't because the reported index prices we use have to be normalised to 100% as they are normalised to their stated percentage, although I believe a few indices are normalised to 100% iron, the ones specified in dmtu (the unit, being the indicator)

So who are RiverFort? Investigations for another day! Except to say they introduced us to Amapa and appear friendly. What's their game? ;-)

Great interviews today @Kiran.

It does seem that way now doesn't it? Meaning we envisage our 27% being worth around $27m, on paper at least - in practice it will depend on many things. Which seems a bit odd really. If it really is that we have first dabs on 22% of the company, taking our holding from 27% to 49%, for $24m, and it was obvious the company was worth multiples that implied (perhaps iron ore had rocketed), then it would be a no-brainer! Surely there must be more to it than that? I hope not! :-)

I'm getting excited...

I personally like being proved wrong, it means I learnt something, although sometimes it can be a little painful! ;-)

All is fine @tomcat. I've been following the trends since I knew following the absolutes was a mine field! :-)

@Bannor. Do you think the $27/t sounds about right given:

"5 June 2020 Bulk report – Week 23"
https://thebalticbriefing.com/weekly-dry-report/
===[
A 39,000-dwt was fixed basis Rouen delivery for a trip to east Mediterranean at $4,750. Mid-sized Handysizes were fixed in the $4,000s from north China for a CIS round voyage or similar level from south China for a northbound trip.
]===

Are those charter fees per day?

Indeed @tomcat - and if we don't exercise our right we aren't diluted from 27% ! :-)

And I've seen enough of it whilst trying to prove myself right and from posters on here and elsewhere (thanks @WhatAboutLogic!) to happily(!) persuade myself I was wrong.

You know I've believed this since January right? And I've still bought in heavily! It's a bit of a relief I've *very* likely been wrong the past 5 months - yet part of me still thinks I may be right, it better fade! :-)

Thanks to everyone who took the time to help persuade me - I hope I didn't come across too arrogantly, I can do that when I think I'm near 100% right - so I've been told! LoL!

So, turns out Amapa is better than even *I* believed, who would have thought it!? ;-)

Ob.

You have helped a lot @WhatAboutLogic! And very polite too - I just read through your posting history to see what gives. LoL. Seems you are more likely to know what's what than me! We could do with someone who actually knows what they are talking about where I'm "from" - we aren't natively an Fe bunch, more Li. LoL.

I'm very happily concluding I'm wrong. And now I must go hang my head in both shame and delight... ;-)

Ob.

I think you are right @tomcat about the question we should be looking to answer: is the Fe 62% $100 dmt or dmtu? My understanding is it is the latter. I'll look for evidence.

I see what you mean @Bannor! Hopefully better evidence:

"Iron Ore: Price Fundamentals"
http://www.rcresearch.com.au/pdf/mar10_iron/RCR_Iron_Ore_Review_1Q10_Price_Fundamentals.pdf
===[
The price of a dry tonne of iron ore is calculated by multiplying the price per dry mtu of iron (ie 10kg of iron) by the per cent content of iron in the ore, times 100. For example, if the price of iron ore fines is 97¢/Fe dmtu, then the value per tonne of ore at 62% Fe content is 97¢ x 100 x 62% = 6014¢ or US$60.14/t.
]===

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/glossary/dry-metric-tonne-unit
===[
A Dry Metric Tonne (Ton) Unit (dmtu) is the internationally agreed-upon unit of measure for iron ore pricing. It has the same mass value as a metric tonne, but the material has been dried to decrease the moisture level.

A dry metric ton unit consists of 1% of iron (Fe) contained in a tonne of ore, excluding moisture. The price per tonne of a certain quantity of iron ore is calculated by multiplying the cents/dmtu price by the percentage of iron content. Iron ore contracts are quoted in US Cents.
]===

By the way I'm having a similar discussion elsewhere, so far three others agree with you, but sadly I still think I'm right! But oh how I'd love to be proven wrong!

@Bannor & @Huinhwa and anyone else who might be interested I'm asking for a second opinion elsewhere. So far one person is agreeing with you two! LoL. I've never wanted to be so wrong, but I still think I'm right... :-(

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/glossary/dry-metric-tonne-unit

Thanks for the reply @WhatAboutLogic. I thought the same as you until I started to see evidence pointing to the contrary. For instance this:

"Iron Ore: Price Fundamentals"
http://www.rcresearch.com.au/pdf/mar10_iron/RCR_Iron_Ore_Review_1Q10_Price_Fundamentals.pdf
===[
The price of a dry tonne of iron ore is calculated by multiplying the price per dry mtu of iron (ie 10kg of iron) by the per cent content of iron in the ore, times 100. For example, if the price of iron ore fines is 97¢/Fe dmtu, then the value per tonne of ore at 62% Fe content is 97¢ x 100 x 62% = 6014¢ or US$60.14/t.
]===

The $100 we are currently seeing is dmtu right?