Member Info for observer842

Not yet available. Could be important.

https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/processos/240043561/processo-n-2213966-5120198260000-do-tjsp

https://esaj.tjsp.jus.br/cposg/search.do?numeroDigitoAnoUnificado=2213966-51.2019&foroNumeroUnificado=0000&dePesquisaNuUnificado=2213966-51.2019.8.26.0000

"Seems unlikely to me - I would have thought at least some, perhaps all even, additional free cash flows beyond that forecast based on $61/t would go to paying off historical and new debt before being divvied out to the JV owners?"

Bearing in mind that DIP A+B will also be classified as new debt being owed from DEV to the JV - so that too should see accelerated repayments if iron ore sustains these prices, or stays above around $61/t.

The envisaged cash flows (based on $61/t) are laid out in the JRP. I'm not suggesting we get dividends before they are due. What I'm saying is that the first direct cash flow coming to KDNC is likely to be as a result of DEV repaying the DIP A+B loans, starting several years from now.

Though we currently don't know what the JRP says if the price of iron ore goes to the moon, perhaps the envisaged repayment schedules remain unchanged and additional free cash flows to the JV? Seems unlikely to me - I would have thought at least some, perhaps all even, additional free cash flows beyond that forecast based on $61/t would go to paying off historical and new debt before being divvied out to the JV owners?

LoL. If it's not a mistake it's an ambiguity! "It's worth deciphering the tables at the back of the JRP to see when the repayment of the loans from the JV (DIP A + B) to DEV are envisaged to be returned with decent interest. From what I can see the repayments from DEV to the JV are envisaged to begin before the repayments from DEV to the unsecured creditors are envisaged to begin. (based on the $61/t projections)

Indeed @Bannor - exciting times! It's worth deciphering the tables at the back of the JRP to see when the repayment of the loans from the JV (DIP A + B) to DEV are envisaged to be returned with decent interest: it's before the unsecured creditors repayments are envisaged to begin. Perhaps @Cause can confirm?

https://pje.trt8.jus.br/primeirograu/Processo/ConsultaDocumento/listView.seam
20012416350764800000023996777

Though I know what you mean about playing with the same toy! LoL. But these things have to be made crystal clear who gets what, and when, from free cash flow, and from what I can see in the JRP it appears that new money is returned earlier than old unsecured money - DIP C first, then A+B. As for old secured money... We'll see!

Prices in the JPR appear to be based on $61/t Fe 62% and $80/t Fe 65%. Comfortably conservatively below today's prices.

I'm standing by 2 mistakes, for now. LoL. ;-)

Ob.

LoL @Bannor, our $6m to the JV isn't a loan, but the $6m from the JV to DEV is. And this gets returned early to the JV with interest according to the JRP, which would presumably allow the JV to dividend pro rata to its shareholders if it so deemed appropriate, which I don't see why it wouldn't. :-)

Another mistake: "We don't know the net *each month*, but I'd hazard a guess that it will be somewhere between $4m and $5m off $110/t.

Actually what I said isn't true. The initial net $10m is to DEV, which the JV doesn't currently own any of.

@tradedesk. The $7.4m gross per month is to the JV project of which we currently own 0%, but have already contributed $2.5m, which is currently in escrow, which we will release and take our holding to 20% when we are sufficiently happy that certain preconditions have been met. We don't know the net of each shipment, but I'd hazard a guess that it will be somewhere between $4m and $5m off $110/t. Since we have permission from the courts to sell $10m net before we have settled with the banks, I think we'll be looking at 2 or 3 shipments, probably 3, but hopefully will settle with the banks before the $10m net is realised and can just keep going!

All realised profit from sale of the 1.39Mt of iron ore held at the port is intended to be fed back into the project. We are not expecting any cash to flow directly to KDNC from the project for several years, firstly from repayments of our $2.5m + $3.5m (to be contributed, taking us to 27%): plus decent interest off this, and of course if we contribute any capital which increases our holding towards 49%. ;-)

Ob.

@Cause. Meant to say thanks for doing this, but you've not shared it correctly - looks like you need a google account to access. Perhaps @Dallas can let you know how to share without this restriction if you can't figure it out?

Another good find @pgal! So current shipping estimates lie between 3rd and 5th August inclusive. Any other takers?

If nothing changes, and we have no announcements, it'll be interesting to anyone observant of AIM dynamics how the share price responds between now and then. Up and down, and down and up, and up, and up, and down and up. Or something like that!? LoL. ;-)

Indeed @tradedesk. Though banks settlement could come before first shipment which IMHO would also re-rate the share price. Any how. Gross revenue per month from one and a half 45kt shipments of 62% iron ore @$110/t is approximately $7.4m :-).

@tradedesk - the plan is to ship three 45kt vessels every 2 months. i.e. 1.5 per month.

No ships at the public port on the 17th:

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-07-17&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

I'm glad you said that @Dallas, as it made me re-listen. I thought he said 20%, but he said 27%. Therefore I agree, it's most likely we'll announce the results of the scoping study once all preconditions for us going to 20% have been met, and we release our $2.5m from escrow and take our holding form 0 to 20% of the JV company. So much news in the pipeline. ;-)

I can't see us issuing the scoping study before "Settlement agreement with secured lenders." but I can see it being issued before the first 45kt has set sail/been sold.

Thanks @Dallas! I knew I could rely on you to deliver :-) I wondered if it was in an interview, but couldn't remember which.

So although not completely clear, the scoping study comes before the 20%, which was my main wondering. It comes after one or both of settlement with banks and first shipment of iron ore. In the absence of clarification I'd say both is most likely.

i.e. scoping study should be inserted here on page 12:

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JUN-2020-PUBLIC.pdf
===[
...
Commencement of Shipment of Iron Ore Stockpile
Settlement agreement with secured lenders.
<--- Scoping Study announced --->
Pursuant to the Judicial Recovery Plan JV Co holding not less than 99.9 per cent of the fully diluted share capital of Dev Co.
...
]===

Of course you could ask @Kiran. You never know he might give a straight answer. ;-)

Ob

@Dallas. You are normally on the ball with these things. Can you remember when in the timeline we plan to release the scoping study? After secured credit settled? After 20%? After first shipment?

Look again @Ivy. It's someone buying into Trafalgar, but it's not even our Trafalgar.

Interestingly we inserted another precondition on taking our 20% on page 12:

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JUN-2020-PUBLIC.pdf
===[
Commencement of Shipment of Iron Ore Stockpile
]===