Member Info for observer842

This week, or next week, or the week after that. ;-)

Continuing to rise. About 1.5% on DCE taking the spot 62% Fe comfortably above $110/t. Custeel has Seaborne 62% fines standing at $111.05/t for the 13th (which doesn't include today's 1.5% rise) and CME now have futures above $80/t out to the end of next year. :-)))

I do hope this rise is helping and not hindering negotiations!

Perhaps @Bannor. It doesn't really matter I suppose. Besides, it was unlikely @Kiran was ever going to fess up in an email ;-)

LoL. ignore that upload date... That was now. Looks like my foo is weak today. ;-)

Cheers @Dallas. Personally I think he has answered the question politically. As in he hasn't. No point in pushing, he clearly wants us to think the video was recorded after the RNS was written... For reference the video was uploaded @11:24:32, the RNS announced @13:33:10 and the video published @15:23.

Cheers @Dallas. So he explicitly said that the recording was made after the RNS written/released? Or did he let you infer that? ;-)

@Cause None of the news outlets have captured the rise yet that I can see. ;-)

15 or 30 minute view shows it most clearly:

http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/chart_en.jsp?symbol=i2009

Strong volume on September delivery and just closed up around 5%, which includes Friday evening's session gains which were well consolidated into.

Something to ponder over for those new looking in.

"Approval of Judicial Restructuring Plan Paves the way for the Restart of the Amapá Iron Ore Project." (30 August 2019)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2887382
===[
- Rehabilitation to be completed by the end of 2021 with new production in 2022. Full production by 2024 of 5.3 million tonnes ("Mt") of iron ore per annum.
· At full production and using US$61 per tonne of 62% Fe Amapá is forecast to have:
o an average net revenue after shipping of US$266 million per annum,
o and an average EBITDA of US$136 million per annum.
]===

Timescales may have slipped 6 months or so, and I believe that $136m EBITDA is an underestimate for 2024, as it looks more likely to be average life of project EBITDA, but regardless, it's based on $61/t, when the current ore price for 62% Fe is around $110/t - call it $50/t greater. At these prices at full production, and all else being equal, the EBITDA would be increased approximately by:

5.3m * $50/t = $265m to around $400m (based on that underestimated, IMHO, $136m)

Truly eye watering.

Of course prices could fall back, but equally they could stay level or keep rising. Take a look at the 12 year chart here:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore

I'm happy to have a go at answering any questions, as I'm sure many others will be too.

And the killer question? Why is the share price so low in light of the above?
Answer: we currently own 0% of the project... This could be about to change ;-)

Ob.

Great find @pgal! Figure 9 on page 18 confirms our deductions about the location of the "Area de Armazenagens de Minerios" which translates as "Mineral Storage Area" or "Ore Storage Area"

"MASTER PLAN OF THE PORT COMPLEX OF SANTANA" (JANUARY 2017)
http://www.infraestrutura.gov.br/images/SNP/planejamento_portuario/planos_mestres/versao_preliminar/vp17.pdf
24MB - 272 pages

@Y1101284 Can you see that the google maps links I provided earlier (and the zoom one) truncate at the first comma meaning when you click them they go to the wrong page. I resorted to using tinyurl to create a link to the location shown. LSE need to allow for commas in links. Example from earlier:

https://www.google.com/maps/@-0.0607,-51.16732,445m/data=!3m1!1e3
https://tinyurl.com/y8uskt85

Hopefully that is clearer?

Ob.

@Y1101284 - I don't suppose you could have a word with LSE about them including commas in URL links? ;-)

There appears to be something happening just here:

https://www.google.com/maps/@-0.060511,-51.165806,56m/data=!3m1!1e3
https://tinyurl.com/y7c6c4cb

(maximum zoom for identification purposes)

which is an area we've previously identified that could be of interest :-)

Public port images:

https://www.google.com/maps/@-0.0607,-51.16732,445m/data=!3m1!1e3
https://tinyurl.com/y8uskt85

"2020-07-07"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-07-07&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

"2020-06-27"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-06-27&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

"2020-06-22"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-06-22&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

"2020-05-28"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-05-28&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

I've changed my mind. What you shared is likely newer as it corresponds more closely with Tuesday's satellite image.

Take a look on google street view. Looks like wood chip to me. Also the zoom link I shared looks more recent:

https://zoom.earth/#view=-0.058321,-51.168708,18z

You'll need to copy and paste, or if you trust me, click on this:

https://tinyurl.com/ycb7np3f

Might be worth another watch of this for a 3D view. 3:33 might be close to the area in question. Though I'm not sure when those flybys were taken.

"Cadence Minerals - Acquisition of Amapá iron ore mine" (07 Jun 2019)
https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5ce7f16221f37766e60a12d7/cadence-minerals-acquisition-of-amapa-iron-ore-mine
===[
Kiran Morzaria, CEO of Cadence Minerals, discusses the Company's acquisition of the former Anglo American and Cliffs Amapá iron ore mine, beneficiation plant, railway and private port, NE Brazil.
]===

Anyone got or recall other 3D views of the area?

Which corresponds to this view:

https://zoom.earth/#view=-0.04869,-51.18043,18z

Turns out I can spot something happening in our port here:

"2020-07-07"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.04869&lng=-51.18043&time=2020-07-07&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

:-)

Forgot to change the date on this one:

"2020-05-28"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=16&lat=-0.05439&lng=-51.18271&time=2020-05-28&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

Some good recent views!

"2020-07-07"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=16&lat=-0.05439&lng=-51.18271&time=2020-07-07&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

"2020-06-27"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=16&lat=-0.05439&lng=-51.18271&time=2020-06-27&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

"2020-06-22"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=16&lat=-0.05439&lng=-51.18271&time=2020-06-22&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

"2020-05-28"
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=16&lat=-0.05439&lng=-51.18271&time=2020-06-22&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

I can't see much happening at our port, but for the handymax spotters you might want to scroll along to take a look at the public port - does these views correlate to what you've been seeing?

Ob.