Member Info for observer842

Thanks @Bannor. Your view is fairly consistent with what I think is most likely. I guess all we really might have to chew the Amapa cud over is our difference of opinion on the execution order ;-) If we know the deal with the banks could still be a few months off, then I'd prefer DEV started shipping now to progress the project, which should also take the pressure off a rushed deal with the banks, noting also that waiting risks iron ore prices retreating, whereas I think you'd prefer DEV didn't ship until we took up our 20% (which would mean our JV owned 99.9% DEV anyway as that is a precondition), no matter how long that wait might be, as this might compromise the JRP in some unforeseen way.

Fingers crossed for a decent 7am RNS tomorrow morning!

Ob.

Certainly all the same company. Just typos.

Indeed @Barksy, there's a lot going on and it's becoming increasingly tricky to untangle! It's a little disappointing no reply from @Kiran, but hopefully this is in the best interests of the company, rather than ignoring you! ;-)

I've been trying to find out the stated ownership of the ship for recent port calls, but no luck. Anyone?

Even if this ship is here to pick up ore from Villa Nova it doesn't make it any less imminent that negotiations with the banks could complete at any time, and we take up our 20%. Me? An optimist? ;-) LoL.

Ob.

Maybe they've been asked to shift their ore to make way for ours?

I note that we've shared ships before:

http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/component/content/article/13-informacoes-operacionais/programacao-de-navios/112-ano-2014

Indeed @Barksy. The nature of our company means it's often wise to report some time after the fact, not before or during! (I doubt we'll be explaining so plainly to the market our intentions and actions after the BCN fiasco!)

Did you ever hear back from @Kiran? I must admit it is slightly concerning that the ship at the port to pick up the ore is owned by the other iron ore company that once shipped from our private port and then, like us, shipped from the public port. I can think of various scenarios: They've decided to ship whatever ore they had left in the private port; They've started up their operations again; We (Dev) is using them to ship "our" ore.

From what I can see they haven't declared starting up their operations, but they have stated their intention to sell their project, and perhaps as part of adding value to their sale tag they are happy for us to "demonstrate" that iron ore is still able to be shipped from the public port, using one of their ships? @Bannor, what are your thoughts on this? It does throw a bit of a spanner in the works!

Necessary information can be obtained from:

http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/component/content/article/13-informacoes-operacionais/programacao-de-navios/308-ano-2020

Ob.

Phew! I was beginning to think my feed was delayed. Or you were a time traveller ;-)

Not sure what you are looking at @Mullins, but currently slowing down. 2.8 knots, bow forward.

@Mullins. Are you sure you are looking at the right ship?

https://www.myshiptracking.com/?mmsi=414648000

Price sensitive information must be released without delay, and I'd say starting to load the ship with ore is VERY price sensitive :-))) Of course you might be right and he's saving it all up for one mega RNS as the ship sails and we take our 20% ownership. ;-)

I wouldn't be so sure about that @Barksy... Sure wouldn't want to be out of this... today! :-)))

You are an absolute star for spotting that @Bannor!

https://www.myshiptracking.com/?mmsi=414648000

@Cause - I should make clear this really is my own best guess at what I think the market will value the company at. For sure there will be some who are so desperate to get out they'll happily sell the lot at 20p whilst at the same time those who have been waiting on the sidelines for the deal to complete will be piling in hard taking their shares off their hands. Both parties will be happy with their decision, until of course the share price moves in either direction...

Personally, since I've got so much invested in here I'll be derisking on the way up, and only adding if the share price is below the range I think is reasonable for the point in the project. For instance, right now I had a fair value of around 14-20p, meaning I would continue to add below 14p, and derisk above 20p all things being equal. Of course if the ship starts to move towards the port and we still haven't had news that range shifts upwards on anticipation of an RNS which will likely jolt the market... :-))))

Fingers crossed for the 20th!

@Cause: "@Obs - Would $450 million be a fair value for Amapa? I would have though it would be valued higher..or is that to reflect the mine needing some work to get into production?". I think if the mine were producing today with today's iron ore prices, exchange rates and shipping costs then $450m would woefully underestimate the value of the project. But it isn't.

Realistically speaking we aren't going to be able to put a good value on it until we have struck a deal with the bankers and know the details, and how that fits together with other required costs apportioned in the JRP: equity to debt. The scoping study should do a more refined job than our collective ">40p sounds about right for 20%?" to inform the market of the value of the project. Lol! ;-) Raising $3.5m to take us to 27% should be fairly straightforward, but going to 49% should be a little bit more, interesting, shall we say... Then again, if we are offered an out for £50-£100m perhaps we'll take it to concentrate on Lithium and Rare Earths, hopefully the rising stars of this decade - finally! ;-)

Ob.

Maybe they went to pick up the paperwork?

@Cause. A valuation for KDNC is far from straightforward! In particular, should Amapa come good it unlocks our other projects, Sonora, Cinovec and Yangibana: we would be able to stand our ground with those - Sonora being the most exciting for me should an increase to 50ktpa and beyond be announced. However, an on the face of it calculation what you are after might go like:

If the market valued our 20% of Amapa at 50p a share, with 140,219,053 shares in issue that would value the 20% at £70m and the whole at £350m or $450m.

Personally I'd be surprised if we didn't exceed 30p on 20% and ore shipping, and surprised if we exceeded 60p. But AIM has form for surprising me both on the upside and downside! LoL. ;-(

Ob.

My current targets: 20p-40p on shipping news. 30p-60p we've taken 20% of Amapa project. 70p+ 27% & > £1 if we take 49%. Lots of caveats, not least the price of iron doesn't crash and the USD to BRL stays very much in our favour, one of the reasons this is such a great prospect if you haven't worked out why... Historical valuations of the Amapa project you may have seen were based on an exchange rate of around 2 or less. Now it's 5.58 :-)))) All IMHO and subject to change! ;-)

Estimated time of berth still set for tomorrow. Fingers crossed this is it! :-))))

Good spot @Bannor. That explains why I felt so reluctant to filter him when I did! Shame on me for not checking.

Hallelujah @Bannor! We agree on something. ;-) I filtered the disruptive idiot a while back.

It's exciting isn't it @tomcat!? It feels like it's going to go ahead this time! Must. Not. Get. Too. Excited. Until. It. Has. Docked!