Estimate for profit8 Feb 2026 17:10
Asked ChatGPT for an estimate of pure profit for Chariot from the Stillwater deal( taking in to account the 34% economic interest and that it's held in a sub that we own 65%).
1️⃣ Start with realistic annual energy, not theoretical max
220 MW will not run flat-out 24/7. Etana’s portfolio is mixed renewables (solar + wind + hydro + trading), but PPAs like this are usually modelled on a blended capacity factor.
A reasonable South African blended assumption:
45–55% capacity factor
Let’s use 50% as a midpoint.
Annual energy:
220 MW × 8,760 hrs × 50%
≈ 964,000 MWh per year (~1.0 TWh)
2️⃣ PPA price assumption (industrial SA buyer)
Large mining PPAs in SA (wheeled renewables, long-term, post-loadshedding premium) typically land around:
$55–70 / MWh
I’ll use $60 / MWh as a fair midpoint.
Gross Etana revenue:
964,000 MWh × $60
≈ $58 million per year
3️⃣ Etana operating economics (this is the big haircut)
Etana is:
An offtaker / trader
Paying generators
Paying wheeling & grid fees
Carrying staff, systems, balancing risk, financing costs
Typical net margin for a renewable energy trader / aggregator is not huge.
A reasonable net margin range:
10–20% EBITDA
After financing & tax → 8–15% net profit
Let’s be conservative and use 12% net margin.
Etana net profit from the PPA:
$58m × 12%
≈ $7.0 million per year
4️⃣ Now apply Chariot’s true economic exposure
As you set out (correctly):
34% economic interest in Etana
Held via a subsidiary that is 65% owned
👉 Effective Chariot interest = 34% × 65% = 22.1%
Chariot’s share of net profit:
$7.0m × 22.1%
≈ $1.55 million per year
5️⃣ Sensitivity range (more realistic than a single number)
Here’s how it flexes if assumptions move:
Conservative case
45% CF
$55/MWh
10% net margin
➡ Chariot profit ≈ $0.8–1.0m / year
Upside case
55% CF
$70/MWh
15% net margin
➡ Chariot profit ≈ $2.5–3.0m / year
🎯 Best estimate (my honest view)
Chariot’s “pure profit” from the 220 MW PPA is likely around
$1.3–1.8 million per year, once fully operational.
That’s:
Meaningful, but not transformational
Valuable mainly because it’s long-dated, contracted, and scalable
Far more about proving the Etana platform than this single deal
🧠 One final nuance investors often miss
This is one PPA.
Etana’s value to Chariot isn’t this contract in isolation — it’s:
Repeatability
Portfolio scaling
Eventual monetisation (sale, partial IPO, strategic investor)
So the multiple applied to this cash flow may matter more than the cash flow itself.
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