Member Info for ObsCure

I think most of us on here are holding on for dear life in hopes that they can turn it around this year. In my opinion not worth selling now as 3.5p could be achieved, once they demerge the power business, and it's allowed to be valuated separately from the mess that is the gas side.

All in my opinion.

I think if nothing else, there is a good case to be made for buying in now at this price, to get a piece of the renewables business once it gets demerged.

"4

That the Directors of the Company be authorised to allot relevant securities up to the aggregate nominal amount of 4,732,343 GBP (see notice) (A response to this proposal is mandatory)

THAT THE DIRECTORS OF THE COMPANY BE AUTHORISED TO ALLOT RELEVANT SECURITIES UP TO THE AGGREGATE NOMINAL AMOUNT OF 4,732,343 GBP"

I got the proxy vote link, but I'm having trouble finding the "document for review", it just redirects to Chariot website. Anyone managed to find it or insight on what this £4.7mil is going to? Is it for the demerger?

P.S. it's a definite no on Wallace for re-election from me.

You can sh*t in one hand and hope in the other. And we can only hope we don't end up holding sh*t..

Or that the energy spinoff will be worth something..

Can only hope they have one last pump in them left..

Don't have access but here is a summary from ChatGPT:

"The article explains that the Anchois-3 well confirmed multiple gas-bearing sands, especially the B-sand, validating previous findings but not significantly increasing reserves. Energean exited after these results, prompting Chariot to regain operatorship and scale down the development. Chariot now plans a leaner, phased project focused on confirmed resources while working with ONHYM to secure approvals and financing. The company remains optimistic due to strong Moroccan gas demand and favorable fiscal terms."

So they are really going to wait till the very last minute to drop the results.. who has money on Monday? 😅

I say in the posts, that its predictions and guesses from ChatGPT, do I not?

I asked for predictions as to when the demerger would happen, as I am tired of waiting around for the next breadcrumb piece of news the BOD is going to grace us with, and what kind of valuation we could look for. This is what it gave me and thought I would share. If you need a simpler explanation, feel free to ask it your self, its literaly free.

P.S. I am by no means happy, that this carrot that they are promising, might take atleast half a year if not more to materialise. And yes I am grasping at straws asking for valuation, for said carrot, from a robot.

Some more from the grand scholar:

"Here’s how a post‑demerger re‑rating for Chariot’s standalone renewables business might unfold, based on comparable market multiples and transaction insight:

⚖️ 1. Current Market Multiples in Renewables

Metric Median Deal Valuation

EV/Revenue ~5.7× (Q4 2024)

Median Revenue multiple (2024) ~3–3.5×

Median EV/EBITDA ~6×

Top‑end EBITDA multiples (esp. niche platforms) 15–20× (e.g. OX2 at ~19×)

🚀 2. Implications for Chariot's Renewables Arm

Let’s assume pro-forma standalone metrics:

Revenue: £25 million

EBITDA: £8 million

Capacity: ~500 MW pipeline

Scenario 1: Median market multiple

EV = 5× × £25m = £125m

Equity value (minus debt): ~£120m

Implied share value = ~9 p

Scenario 2: Conservative (3× revenue / 6× EBITDA)

EV ≈ £75m → Equity ≈ £70m

Implied share value = ~5–6 p

Scenario 3: Premium (growth-focused platform at 15× EBITDA)

Especially with financing in place and key PPAs secured

EV = 15× × £8m = £120m → Equity ~£115m

Implied share value = ~12–13 p

Even using the current mid-market multiple of 5× revenue is consistent with the 10 p valuation suggested by Stifel.

🧭 3. Comparison with Private Deals & PE Activity

OX2 was bought at ~19× EBITDA in 2024, illustrating strong appetite for scalable platforms

.

A recent report found listed renewable platforms are still trading significantly below replacement value, with PE/infrastructure funds actively acquiring them

greenbarrel.com

.

📈 4. Likely Re‑Rating Triggers

Clean capital raise — effectively revaluing the business at market terms

Key project contracts going live — gives investors confidence in cash flow

Separation of renewables assets — removes conglomerate discount

PPA-backed revenue — shifts valuation multiple upward (closer to 5–7× revenue or 8–15× EBITDA)

✅ 5. Base-Case Re‑Rating Outlook

Pre-demerger share price: ~1.4 p (renewables undervalued within group dilution)

Post-demerger equity value: Variety of multiples suggest 8–12 p per share

That's a 5–8× re‑rating opportunity as investors apply pure-play renewable multiples

🔍 Sensitivity Analysis

Downside: If financing delays push projects out, market may still apply group-like multiple, capping share at ~6–7 p

Upside: Secured pipeline, clean financing, ESG tailwinds → could support a premium 12–15 p valuation

📝 Bottom Line

Median market earnings and revenue multiples support a re‑rated valuation of 8–12 p per share

Achieving top-end multiples with pipeline visibility & financing could lift it to 12–15 p

Overall, a 5–8× uplift versus current valuation appears realistic once the demerger is executed"

Continued:

"🧭 My Refined Valuation

Standalone implied market cap: ~£130–140 m (~US $165–175 m), accommodating a modest premium for diversification

Per share value: ~10 p aligns with Stifel’s figure — representing roughly 7× current pro‑forma group share price (~1.4 p)

- Pre‑commercial financing event: could lift valuation to 11–13 pps; missing expectations may pull it back to 8–9 pps

✅ Summary – Look‑Through Model

Base case: 10 p/share (~US $132 m)

Operational + trading + water assets valued via DCF

Pipeline tagged at ~$200/kW across African projects

Supported by JV validation, strategic review, and pipeline depth

Tangents

Downside to 8 p if funding falters or projects delay

Upside to 12–13 p if financing closes at strong terms and key projects proceed"

Do with that what you will 🧙

According to grand sholar Chatikus Gptikus:

"Here’s a more detailed examination of the look‑through valuation for Chariot’s demerged Transitional Power (renewables + electricity trading + water) division:

1. Stifel’s Valuation Dissection

Stifel estimates the division is worth US $132 million, or 10 p per share — broken down into:

$32 million from four operational projects (total 515 MW), based on discounted cash flow

$100 million attributed to the pipeline of future assets

🔍 This indicates that about 24% of value is currently realized assets, with the remaining 76% in growth potential — standard for a scaling renewables platform.

2. Project Portfolio & Revenue Streams

From Chariot’s H1 2024 and FY2023 reports:

Operating asset: 15 MW Essakane solar (Burkina Faso, partner = IAMGOLD)

Dev pipeline:

40 MW Buffelspoort solar (Tharisa, South Africa) – PPA with mining client, targeting close Q4 2024

30 MW Karo solar (Zimbabwe)

430 MW solar + wind (Zambia, First Quantum Minerals)

lse.co.uk

Additionally, Etana Energy JV:

Chariot holds 49%, enabling trading across the South African grid

Offtake agreements with Growthpoint, Autocast, Petra Diamonds, Tharisa

And water desalination assets:

A commissioned solar-powered desalination facility in Djibouti

Implication: This diversified platform spans generation, trading, and non-power utilities, which increases the potential valuation multiple versus standalone generation.

3. Funding & Strategic Review Status

A strategic review launched March 18, 2024, exploring demerger, sale, or retention

.

Management has received multiple expressions of interest — especially from South Africa-focused investors — indicating external validation and ability to finance at the subsidiary level

.

A financing event at this level would likely define a read‑through valuation for the assets, enabling transparent pricing for the IPO/demerger.

4. Valuation Multiples & Benchmarking

The realized assets (15 MW + trading JV) imply ~$2.08 million cash flow per MW — a fairly standard lower-mid range for solar.

Pipeline projects (~500 MW) at $100M implies ~$200/kW, which aligns with valuations in emerging African markets (typically $150–$300/kW depending on PPA stability and country risk).

Given operational diversification and JV stakes, applying a 6–8× EBITDA multiple isn't unrealistic for a standalone AIM listing, reinforcing Stifel’s 10 p/share estimate.

5. Risks & Opportunity Levers

Upside factors:

Finalizing Etana financing could unlock ~$X million in subsidy-free MWs

Green hydrogen may spin out separately — concentrating value here

First Q4 2024 project commencements provide tangible validation

Risks:

African country risk, FX exposure, and PPA renegotiation

Execution delays (e.g. Zimbabwe’s Karo solar)

Dependence on external funding — any hiccup may dampen valuation"

Also asked about eligibility cut-off date.

"Best Guess: Eligibility Cut-Off Date for Chariot Energy Demerger

Based on the current timeline and how AIM demergers typically proceed, my best estimate for the eligibility cut-off date (also called the "record date") to receive shares in Chariot’s demerged Transitional Power (renewables) business is:

🗓 Mid-to-Late Q4 2025 — Likely: Between 15 November and 20 December 2025"

If it's right, anyone wanting to get a bite at the second proverbial 🍒, will have to hold on till end of year.

Asked ChatGPT for a best guess for when the demerger would happen. Here's what it had to say:

"Likely Completion: Q1 2026

If all goes to plan, Chariot could complete the demerger between January and March 2026, with potential pre-announcements or updates in late 2025."

"Key Assumptions Behind This Timeline

Chariot has already secured financing, suggesting they’re ready to act quickly.

They’ve been reviewing the strategic options since March 2024, so some preparatory work is likely complete.

An AIM demerger typically takes 6–9 months from serious intent and funding to full separation, assuming no regulatory delays.

Market conditions and complexity of international energy projects (Morocco, South Africa) could slightly slow execution."

It will be telling is they release the 2024 financials just before closing today.

Massive? That's probably just a few months salary, if that, (payed by us with the last year's placement) they've put in.

Clear as mud.

By the way, whatever happened to

"· Secure a material new venture opportunity with multi-billion barrel potential

· Progress onshore gas commercialisation plans in Morocco to build a gas to industry supply"

from last years placing?

Now its "· Secure Chariot's stake and participation in wind generation, gas and new upstream assets" whatever those are..

Good chance you will get all of it. I'm sure not everyone taking up the placement oversubscribed, or even took up their full offer. I took up double of what was offered(I'm dumb, should have just bought them through the market, would have been cheaper) to round off the number of shares I'm holding. IG shows I'm allocated my full sub and oversub.

Placing finished and as expected price dips below 1.4p 🙄

Apparently not 😑