Member Info for OAMOT

They aren’t deadlines. Just indications of expected timelines at the time of writing. People call them deadlines to create a narrative. We had an indication of early Jan. We are not yet at the mid point of the month. There was no ‘deadline’ to miss and we were still in the broad timeframe indicated.

I can’t believe the debate on here and accusations of corruption because a complex update from a small company might be a day or two behind schedule. Not saying this is all about agendas, but……………..

RAH. Totally agree again!! It could be worse than your 5-10 and that is definitely not the top end of my potential range either. But I think a deal will be done early and that those are the likely numbers for an early deal. And like I said in an earlier post that’s amazing for us shareholders and may put the drug into the market much quicker too. That would be the greatest investment win win any of us will ever see.

RAH. Agree with all of that - timings and even value range are bang on what I think is the most likely scenario. All assuming results next week are excellent (which I fully expect).

100%. No way avacta ever take cancer drugs to market. That’s why the FUD from a few weeks ago about profit margins was such rubbish. If the tech works it will be bought. Shareholders might not get the max possible return. But we will get a very good one quite quickly and the drug will hit the market much sooner than a small company like avacta could every manage - to the good of lots of very sick people.

The deadline of Q4 was missed. But the co got ahead of that and RNS’ed a new date to take the heat out of it’s late so it must be bad. If that was the case they’d surely just sit tight not set a new deadline and a publicly event? Debating the definition of early Jan and what would be late is a bit pointless (is it split early middle and late or just early and middle etc etc) However…….a week on Monday it’s the 16th which is definitely after early Jan so a couple of weeks ago after a year and a half of the trial we were told news will arrive by next week. For those of us in for years not days that sounds good to me.

I have read what the FDA website says on this. Patients still need to have a serious or life threatening disease for which there is no comparable or effective alternate treatment. To be part of this either Avacta or the sponsor-investigator must make an application to be included for expanded access. I don’t understand the implications of all of this but someone (Avacta or I assume lead clinician as I don’t know who the sponsor-investigator is) has taken time and effort to go through this process. Why do this unless they had a reason? What reason could there be to make a drug available to serious / life threateningly ill patients other than it is effective? This is too far out of my comfort zone to fully understand but feels very positive to me.

Waggy on that argument the 12 months low is 39p so is it also on a really rapid rise? The truth is the share price is doing nothing and hasn’t been for several months.

The 50% threshold is not relevant. For a start you’d still own your shares if you wanted them so why would anyone care? All that changes at 50.1% is the BOD. It is the 90% that matters where all shareholders have to sell. HC can block this. Anyway why would a large pharma want 50.1% and other investors have the other 49.9 and benefit from 49.9% of the value they generate?

Unless I have always misunderstood this a simple majority allows you to acquire control of a company but to force all shareholders to sell and acquire the company outright needs 90% shareholder approval doesn’t it? The remaining 10% then also have to sell. Without that anyone who wants to will have shares still just with a new major shareholder. I could be wrong.

There can block as the bonds are convertible so can be converted to shares giving enough of a %age holding to block a hostile takeover.

Wearegroot spot on. That’s one reason I think that convertible fund raise was so smart. PI’s are short term annd easily tempted but these investors can block any bid they don’t think is true value. The raise gave money and security.

Pretty fair RAH.

I’ve wondered all through P1 if an expected takeover is why they’re so quiet? Confirm it works (or enough big pharma recognises it does) without a low bid defence and this could have been bought for Fraction of its value. Soon we get full data and the asset is protected by a big II

Now the fund raise looks so smart. T/O for me has been a certainty post results for a while. Cash raise means no distress or time pressure to take advantage of with a low offer. The conversation to shares means a major shareholder is created who can block an offer when PIs might take the quick win. It will pay back much more than the dilution.

I’m not sure Avacta has said it plans to license AVA6000? Latest thinking is it plans to licence others, AVA3996 for example, to fund AVA6000. In any case like many I think a buyout will come quickly so license or develop plans will never happen. A large pharma would make and market the drug themselves so would value the opportunity on RAH’s model. But of course these figures are for AVA6000 if that’s all they paid they’d be buying AVA600 and getting the platform for free!! What a bargain that would be!!

This topic (started with a friend of a friend told me type story yesterday) has taken over today. It’s total distraction and the fact it began this way should be enough for people to draw their own conclusions. Normally commercials matter to share price of course - they are all that matter. However in this case it is not relevant (and will be unknown for ages too). Avacta will never market any drug. Once proven (even partly by 1a) they’ll be bought for the obvious value of Chemo without side effects. All todays discussion has nicely got Paul Hills positive article hidden several pages down.

About 1.3m shares traded so not a big trading day and a small number of 60k sells. Ignore the Friday UT and it’s off 3 or 4p. Is a move like this worth debating?

Always going to be a few people take an easy profit. The way the trades are being marked today doesn’t help. Half an hour ago every trade was marked a sell even though there was nearly 1.5p gap between the trade prices. Obvious a whole load were buys but when it all looks red it’ll encourage more to take the easy 20p a share or so.

Well done!! You aren’t looking at the rejected shares in the open offer area that still shows on the HL app? Mine were scaled back much more and I didn’t apply for many relative to my holding. I saw the rejected number first, misunderstood, and was much more excited!!

Dose escalation RNS was 1/9/22. So it is 10 weeks