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Wyn this is your favourite unanswerable question. Classic FUD as it can’t be answered. But let’s take the most ridiculous part of that post. You have a product. It’s better than the current widely used product. So you choose to sell your premium product at 80% discount. Why? Who would do that? Also cost of care for dox is way more than the drug. The side effects need a huge range of treatment too so at multiple cost per dose it may well still be cheaper. Why do you only look for negatives? Even when to find them the argument you make is unbelievably far fetched.

DS not missing anything. Other than the 55m bond issue late 2022.

Valueinv avacta raised 60m last year whilst Aim listed. I think they will be able to again wirh great P1a results if they need to. Nasdaq may come but I personally don’t think it’s a necessity to raise money. As the science develops raising money should be easier and historically avacta has always been able to access more capital.

Wyn Lots of good news is widely expected. All of which will I hope have positive price impact. In 2024 if none of the good news is commercial a fund raise is needed. It feels unlikely no licence deal or anything commercial emerges with the expected news flow, but if that is the case Avacta has raised £120m already. With a lot less to show the market to persuade them to subscribe. Half of this was raised a few months ago in a really rough capital market.So relax and go skiing.

Lots will land this year with big advances for Avacta. Some scientific some commercial. There will be plenty of excited mornings on here in 2023. Just not today!!

Ronnie, where are you seeing this? When I look this afternoon looks pretty balanced. If you look at actual prices not LSE colour coding buying maybe shades selling. Likely as the price has gone up slightly this afternoon. Right now buys are below mid so everything will mark red. Actual trading isn’t showing lots of sellers as far as I can see.

Short to medium term all I can see is positive news flow. DE, full P1a data, details of P1b (a mini P2/3), existing partnership news, 3996, TMAC. Did I miss any?

If none of that leads to commercial success (new partners, licensing, or even my number 1 expectation a TO) then in about a year the board will need to raise money. Feels unlikely none of that will have commercial value, but outside this BB AS is a well respected CEO who has raised £120m already, c£60m recently. All with less to show the market for their money than he has now.

Short term price is driven by sentiment which is fickle. Long term fundamentals drive price. For a biotech at avacta’s stage the fundamentals are the science and that appears world beating.

Touk. I’ve never expressed an opinion here on value or timing. But I’m positive or I wouldn’t be invested. If I was negative I’d sell. And I wouldn’t tell everybody why to help them get out first and depress my exit price. That’d be altruism in its purest form. The idea people are invested but spend huge amounts of time on here talking it down is ridiculous to me. Debate is good. But people who constantly return with the same negatives must have a reason.

The same during the big drop Friday. Big sell possible. NT to buy……

To compare positive vs constantly negative posting is disingenuous. Naturally those invested have a positive view - or why be invested? Sure they might discuss risks but ,
how do you explain being here day after day to be negative? These people would have sold so why still be here? One makes sense. The other doesn’t. Unless the world is either full of altruism or there are people who want to profit from negativity.

Good to see it still exists. All the people taking time out to warn us of the perils of investing here. Obviously they aren’t invested as they know it’s only ever falling. Yet still they find the time to warn the rest of us. In a cynical world it warms the heart that people still care so much.

I’ve been trying for the past few minutes to buy a few more at the bargain price. All I get is no-quotes. No problem getting a sell quote though. I thought big drops meant there were loads of sellers but no buyers? Just can’t understand it ……..

What will make it more accurate by then? It will still be based on market size as product price won’t be available the lm either. If you listen to the presentation last week a better dox will become SOC overnight. isn’t market size therefore the best indicator to use? Unless of course you just want to pose an answerable question?

Wyn, if you expect a buy out in 12-18 months why are you wondering about avacta’s product price? You know they won’t be at market by then so won’t have a price. Buy out calcs at that stage can only be based on market size etc. RAH has done the validation work for you on that basis.

RAH. Agree with that. Markets are of course not perfectly rational. There would be no incentive to invest in anything other than trackers if every stock was valued correctly at all times based on its risk and return. The past 2 days have been odd. Better than hoped for results to date + shorter than expected route to market = lower value. Hard to see that as rational.

What a surprise. BB awash with fear of fund raising despite the shortened time to approval expected from the update. I wonder if this morning a short added to their short position to put downward pressure on the price first thing and see what panic would follow? And then close. Let’s see in 24 hours where the FUD spreaders from today have gone.

It was an odd opening even for AIM. Blue day in the end.

To be honest I can’t think why else you’d add the cost of a control group?

Everything is so much clearer after SD.

However it is all probably academic. I am pretty sure that data will lead to a very early offer for avacta.

I’m equally sure we will see the group who always look for a negative (why? If you want out because you thought it’d fall the last thing you’d do is tip off everyone else to lower your exit price) will move back to fund raise as with the science sorted its all that’s left.

R-R I took the exact opposite from the slides. P1b deign looks to be changed to give an opportunity for fast track approval. William Tap is onboard who’s managed this before. After last week the route to revenue looks cheaper and shorter than I could have imagined.

I certainly wasn’t expecting a buying opp in the 140s after the amazing data.